The 2019 AFL season has seen 23 rounds in the books and with the umpires’ votes locked and loaded, the 2019 Brownlow Medal winner has already been determined. It’s one of the few sporting events in the world where you can bet on the outcome after the event has already occurred! That means we have a plethora of information at our fingertips to help us determine who has polled the most Brownlow votes this season and where we should place our Brownlow bets.
Of course, at times, it’s difficult to get inside the minds of an umpire, however we’re confident that we can help you find plenty of winners on Brownlow night. Stay tuned to BYB over the coming weeks as we will be bringing you a number of different Brownlow articles including a breakdown of the contenders, live betting strategies and team/player bets.
To start with, let’s take a look at how our Top 20 ended up following the regular AFL season:
According to the betting markets, Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield is the favourite, currently $3.05 on Betfair, and as you can see with our votes above, we agree with that favouritism. We have Danger potentially polling in 14 matches, with as many as seven best on grounds. He’s a known vote winner and Geelong won plenty of games. Tim Kelly was solid early in the season, but later in the year, it was Danger who stood out in most matches. The one point loss to Brisbane in Round 22 may cost him a vote, but it may not matter. Hard to beat!
Lachie Neale was the favourite for large portions of the season, after he jumped out of the gates with a likely nine votes from the first three rounds. We suggested Neale as a bet in Round 2 when he was $15, so you could potentially lay him off now at $6.00 on Betfair. We’ll also be suggesting Neale as a bet to be leading after Round 6. Neale is definitely a chance to win the Brownlow, but he went a little cold in the middle part of the season which will hurt. A definite three votes in Round 23 may make it exciting, but we have him too far behind Danger to catch him.
The market mover at the end of the season was Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli after he won several media awards. We have Bont potentially polling in 10 matches, but only two as a clear best on ground (several others where he’s in the mix). While Bont is a great player and an over-poller, he has several factors counting against him. Firstly, the Bulldogs only finished middle of the table so there may not be enough wins to get him the 3 voters he needs. He’s also competing for votes with ball magnets Josh Dunkley, Lachie Hunter and Jack Macrae. While they are typically under-pollers, some of their performances are going to be hard for the umpires to ignore. There’s a chance we have Bont a little light, but the 10.5 vote gap we have between him and Danger, looks too big for Bont to overcome. Happy to fade at around $7.00 on Betfair.
Nat Fyfe, Patrick Cripps, Adam Treloar and Brodie Grundy are the others who you could consider as contenders. Grundy had a monstrous year – arguably the best ever by a ruckman. However, rucks just haven’t polled well in recent memory and teammate Treloar will steal a few votes in a talented midfield. Treloar gets lots of the ball which means he may over-poll, but he isn’t always the best user of the ball which counts against him. Nat Fyfe is the stand out at Freo and he had another superb year. He was a bit slow at the start of the season but will gather momentum through Rounds 5-8. With three votes in Round 21, Fyfe could be right up there, but the final two weeks will prove costly. Finally, I have no doubt that Patrick Cripps will one day win a Brownlow, but this won’t be his year. He’ll have to poll a lot of votes in losing efforts, which will just make it too tough.
So in summary, we think Dangerfield and Neale are the only two likely to win and have Danger clearly in front if you want to have a sweat on Brownlow night.
Click here for the full 2019 AFL Brownlow Medal predictions, leaderboard and round-by-round voting
Stay tuned over the coming weeks as we break down each team’s votes and look for some plays on team voting and player head-to-head Brownlow betting markets.
Patrick Dangerfield to win
$3.05
