Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sha Tin on Tuesday, October 1st.
It's the National Day race meeting this afternoon, with a very good 10-race card that will really spice up an otherwise standard Tuesday. The meeting features two Group 3s and sees the return of reigning HK horse of the year Beauty Generation! Check out our preview and betting tips below.
Sha Tin Racing Tips: Tuesday, October 1st
Best Bet: Race 10 - (4) Aethero
Tricky race to kick things off. The market suggests (8) Eight Trigrams will be very hard to beat, and while I agree, I think $2.40 is well and truly short enough. He's had six career starts which have all been over this track and distance, placing in two of them, including last time we saw him back in July. He makes his seasonal reappearance today after 11 weeks off and Purton is booked to ride him for the first time. The horse hasn't been blessed with kind barrier draws so far throughout hsi career but he draws well today in barrier 7. He's the one to beat but you wouldn't want him any shorter. (1) E Star ran well first up. He produced a similar performance on debut before winning second up, so if he improves similarly today then he can go close. (5) Super Eighteen ran in the same race Eight Trigrams ran 2nd in back in July. He was 1.5L behind the other horse but he was given a questionable ride. He gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour from that last meeting and he draws well, but he's won just one race from 19 starts. (12) Master Albert is the clear value in the race at $9.00. He draws very poorly in barrier 12, which is the big negative, but his first up run was very good. He drew wide and went back near the tail of the field, but ran home in final splits of 22.22 and 22.19, which are the quickest of anything in this race. Unfortunately for him, he'll have to get a long way back again and will probably concede too much of a start, but he should be rattling home.
Value: (12) Master Albert $9.00
There doesn't look a lot to this race so they'll have to be pretty good to beat (6) Super Winner, and this time the $2.30 looks about right. He's had just the one start, which was on the opening day of the season exactly a month ago. That was over the 1000m course and he was beaten 2L. He's been back to the trials with Purton jumping aboard, and he flew out from the wide gate to lead all the way. He was asked for an effort early in the straight and he responded very nicely, quickly putting a margin on the rest of the field before coasting home the last 50m or so. If he shows that speed early he should lead this and be hard to run down in what looks a fairly thin field.
The market looks to have this pretty spot on. I would have thought there was only three real chances. I've gone with (1) Little Giant on top. This horse absolutely flies fresh. He's had four starts when first up from a spell and has never lost. Last time we saw him he won a G3 over the 1200m carrying 60.5kg, the same weight he carries today. Today will be a tough task as four of the seven runners carry 51.5kg, including the favourite (5) Full Of Beauty, so he's giving away 9kg. This is also the first time he's ever raced over 1000m (his pet distance is 1200m). But I can't ignore how well he goes fresh. Full Of Beauty resumes from a spell as the winner of five of his eight starts. He was beaten 2L by Little Giant last time they met, but that was his eighth start in his first ever preparation. He returns for his second preparation ncie and fresh today and he looks a horse that can make his way into better races. He's also never raced over 1000m but he gets 9kg from Little Giant and could prove too nippy if he's got a head start. (2) Rattan has been transformed into a sprinter now, having been stretched out to 2000m for the Derby. His past two starts over the 1200m have both been outstanding. he beat the likes of Beat The Clock and Mr Stunning two starts back, before running 2nd to Beat The Clock in the G1 Sprint in April. He's first up here and like the other two, races over 1000m for the first time in his career. He goes very well fresh and if they've trained him for speed, there's no doubting he has the class to be winning this despite carrying equal top weight with Little Giant.
This is an ugly race and I won't be keen to dive in here. (8) California Legend goes on top but I'm wary of taking the $2.90 about him. He more so goes on top by default because it's hard to find anything to beat him. He led all the way to win over this track and distance last start and while it looks like he produced a very good final 400m (22.31), he was able to because he led at a crawl and received no pressure in front, allowing him to sprint home. Therefore, if he was to cop some pressure in front here, there'd be the question of whether he could hang on, but the problem is there doesn't look to be any pressure in front, so he might be able to lead at a tempo which suits him once again. (6) Chui Chow Kid is an unreliable horse but if he were to run to his best, he'd go well here. He ran well first up back in June and produced a 22.43 final 400m, but he failed to reproduce that last start, when first up for the new season, fading out to finish 11th of 14. What I will say is he ran a good sectional from the 800m-400m but seemed to peak in the final 400m. Maybe with that run under the belt he can be better off fitness-wise and that could see him be competitive at good odds. (1) Smart Patch completely turned his form around with his last-start win at Happy Valley back in June. He'd failed to finish closer than 7th in his first eight starts in Hong Kong, but came home right over the top of them to win that race. He's now had a stable change and Moreira is booked to ride, so I'd certainly keep my eye on him.
Value: (6) Chui Chow Kid $13
(8) California Legend
$2.90
Open race. I'm interested in Moreira's mount (3) Speedy Luck here, who might be ready to win his first race in Hong Kong. He's failed to make an impression in seven starts in Hong Kong to date, but he showed signs of improvement last time we saw him race, when finishing 4th. He's first up for the new season today and his two trials this time in have both been very encouraging. He drops into Class 4 for the first time since arriving and Moreira rides him today after piloting him in his most recent trial. He'll need a good ride from barrier 8 but hopefully there's a good tempo set and he can be finishing over the top of them. Speaking of good trials, (5) Ezra really caught the eye in his recent trial at Happy Valley. He was closing hard without being let off the bridle and he was in front only a matter of strides past the post. He's gone close in a couple of starts so far without winning one and he looks set to be very competitive here. (2) Big Fortune won on his stable debut for Douglas Whyte, leading throughout. He'll kick up from barrier 1 here but there looks a bit of speed in the race and he also goes up in the weights. He can win again but I'll bet around him today.
I'm pretty keen to stick with (4) Splendour And Gold here. I backed him first up at Happy Valley and I thought the ride was terrible. He came around the field from last to hit the front at the 500m mark, before understandably weakening in the straight to finish 5th. Moreira replaces Poon today which is a big jockey change. The horse actually won over this track and distance last preparation and he's still very lightly raced so has improvement to come. I think he can win this. (8) Happy Sebring is going really well. He won two starts ago before producing the fastest final 400m in defeat on the dirt last start. I think (11) I Do is well and truly short enough at $4.40. He draws awkwardly in barrier 10 and he was beaten by Splendour And Gold when they last met and they meet at the same weights today, so I can't see why they're the same price.
(4) Splendour And Gold
$4.60
The Group 3 The Celebration Cup. We see the return of reigning HK Horse of the Year (1) Beauty Generation, who is aiming to make it 10 wins on the run. If he's going to get beat this preparation, today will be it. He carries 60.5kg first up over 1400m, with one horse carrying 54kg and the rest carrying 51.5kg. With that said, none of these horses should get close to him if he's anywhere near his best. He's got a great fresh record and he won this same race first up with the same weight last year, sitting outside the leader before kicking away to win by 2.3L. He will probably lead from barrier 6 and win this pretty cosily.
(1) Beauty Generation
$1.30
With even luck, (2) Mr Croissant looks very hard to beat. He draws awkwardly in barrier 10 which is problematic over the 1200m, but if he slots in he looks the obvious choice in this race. He's got two wins and four placings from six career starts and the form behind the likes of Big Party and Golden Sixty is very strong. His recent trial was good so he should be winning this with even luck. I'll take on (9) Monkey Jewellery with the rise in Class and the wide barrier draw. (6) New Asia Sunrise looks an each way bet to nothing from the good barrier draw. He's always around the mark, while (12) Jumbo Prize and (13) Little Wise Man are others to include in exotics.
Decent race and I've got it between Purton and Moreira. (3) Invincible Missile and (4) Super Star actually met last preparation over this track and distance, where Super Star won by a head. Invincible Missile was without cover for the first half of that race, while Super Star went back from the wide gate and came home over the top. Invincible Missile has one run under the belt this prep, which was a win, so he's got a bit of race fitness on his side, while Super Star is first up today. Should be a fascinating tactical battle with Invincible Missile drawn in 8 and Super Star in 10. Purton jumps off last-start winner (2) Cool Team to stick with Invincible Missile, which is another positive sign.
(3) Invincible Missile
$4.00
We see the return of the most exciting horse in Hong Kong here, and his name is (4) Aethero. He's had three career starts and all have been hugely impressive victories. His first two were in Griffin races, where the form can be very questionable, but he then went to a Class 3, jumped from the widest gate, sped along to lead and ran them into the dirt under a stranglehold. He broke the Class record in doing so, and he did it as a two-year-old! He returns as a three-year-old today and while there are obvious queries about the form out of his wins, there's no denying his times and his ability. He should go straight to the front and be very hard to run down once again. He's on a path towards the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in December, so he'd want to be winning this.
