Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Rosehill on Saturday, March 21st.
It's Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill, with the $3.5million Group 1 for two-year-olds headlining a blockbuster card containing FIVE Group 1s. The Ranvet Stakes, George Ryder Stakes, Rosehill Guineas and The Galaxy are all set to be run, making it one of the biggest days on the Australian racing calendar.
Check out our race-by-race preview, tips and best bets for Rosehill below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: 2020 Golden Slipper Day
Best Bet: Race 5 - (2) Te Akau Shark
Best Value: Race 8 - (3) Kementari
Race 1 - Listed Darby Munro Stakes (Market)
Only a small field for the Darby Munro Stakes, but it's an intriguing race with a number of talented horses, some more exposed at this level than others. (1) Cosmic Force is our current favourite. He finished 2nd to Villami first up in the Fireball Stakes. He got a perfect run on that occasion and ran the best final 200m of the race but still couldn't run down Villami. Tactics with him today could be interesting from barrier 12. We saw him lead and win second up last prep, so I'd probably expect to see him slide forward from the wide gate. Glen Boss replacing James McDonald is an interesting jockey change. (3) Dawn Passage looks good odds at $9.50. He's undefeated first up from a spell and he returns for the first time since racing in the Golden Rose. He's not a customary leader type of horse that Gai Waterhouse normally produces so the tactics from barrier 1 will be interesting. In any case, I think he's a good price. (6) California Zimbol ran 3rd to Villami and Cosmic Force first up. She will improve off that but she would need to if she's going to win this. (8) Hilo returned as a gelding in dominant fashion at Kensington, recording a 4.5L win. This is a steep rise in class from a BM70 to a Listed race, but I'm keen to stick with him at $7.00. (12) Mirra Vision is the unexposed one at this sort of level. She's undefeated from three career starts and although she only won by half-a-length first up at Kensington, she did it after sitting three-wide the trip. She also recorded a slightly faster time than Hilo earlier that day so she can definitely measure up. Dawn Passage and Hilo are the two for me at the odds.
Also backing: (8) Hilo $7.00
Race 2 - G3 Manion Cup (Market)
We've got a short-priced favourite in the form of Canberra Cup winner (7) Mugatoo, who is undefeated from three starts this prep. He's certainly been very impressive in each of those wins, but $2.20 looks short enough for me in what looms as a much tougher race against some good horses. (1) Young Rascal has travelled over from the UK for the Sydney Autumn Carnival. He's trained by William Haggas and runs first up here since finishing down the track in the Hong Kong Vase last December. He's a three-time Listed winner in the UK and has three wins from five starts when first up from a spell. He's a two-time winner at this distance, another box which Mugatoo is yet to tick. If the track remains in the soft range, it enhances his chances, as he has three wins from five starts on rain-affected ground. Keen to be with him at $5.50 here. (9) Supernova is the other horse that catches the eye. I think the $8.00 for him represents value. He ran well first up behind Shared Ambition, which I think is a very strong form line. He came from last and was only beaten 2.3L, which was a good effort. He's got a good second up record, has finished top two in both starts at Rosehill, is a winner at the distance, and gets in with just 53.5kg. He's probably want a dry track but I like his chances. (2) Red Cardinal can improve from a positive first up run.
Value: (9) Supernova $8.00
Race 3 - G3 Epona Stakes (Market)
With two of the Waller runners here. (7) Gayitri had no luck at all first up in the Aspiration Quality, held up the entire straight looking for runs. The firmer the track, the better for her. Hopefully from barrier 5 she gets clear running in the straight and if she does, she could run a big race at double figure odds. (6) Savacool ran well as expected last start, finishing 3rd in that same race. She has a good third up record, with three top-two finishes from four starts. She draws wide and her record at Rosehill is poor, which are the two concerns. (1) Luvaluva was flying before failing in Group 1 company in New Zealand. Her record at Rosehill is also poor so she has to be a risk at the price. (2) Greysful Glamour can be forgiven for last start when pulling up lame and with an internal bleed. She would want the track as firm as possible as she just doesn't go any good on the wet ground. (5) Another Dollar is another of the Waller brigade, and she did peak third up at this track over a similar distance last prep, so it wouldn't shock to see her improve today. Tough race!
Race 4 - G1 Ranvet Stakes (Market)
The first of the day's Group 1s. Keen to be with (5) Verry Elleegant to upset the two more favoured runners here. She's returned in terrific form this preparation. First up she zoomed home along the rail, really catching the eye in the Apollo Stakes, before being beaten half-a-length by Te Akau Shark last start in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. She's undefeated from three previous starts when third up from a spell, so she should be peaking today, and the step up to 2000m looks ideal given she's a three-time winner at the distance. (2) Addeybb is a fascinating runner from the UK. He's Group 1-placed and a Group 2 winner in the UK and was last seen running 2nd in the Champion Stakes at Royal Ascot, splitting Magical and Diedre. That's legitimate Group 1 form and if he produced that here, he'd be winning. The query has to be whether he's going to be at his best first up from a spell. He seemed to take good improvement out of his first up run last May, running 4th of 6 before bolting in second up. Might be worth saving your coin until he goes around next start. (1) Avilius started the well-backed favourite in the Australian Cup but wasn't given much hope. He's undefeated from three starts at Rosehill, two of which were Group 1s. Bowman back on today, he has to be a chance, but the jury is out this prep.
(5) Verry Elleegant
$4.40
Race 5 - G1 George Ryder Stakes (Market)
(2) Te Akau Shark is clearly the horse to beat here and is a deserved short-priced favourite. He broke through for his first Australian Group 1 win last start in the Chipping Norton Stakes, making it two G1s from as many starts this prep. He'll have to round them up again from a slightly tricky draw but he's absolutely flying so I expect him to win again. (8) Brandenburg looks value to me at $21. He was the winner of the Hobartville Stakes first up before running 3rd in the Randwick Guineas last start. He's one of three three-year-olds in the race and we know how strong the three-year-old form has been this season. He'll go forward from barrier 3 and he looks the best roughie in the race at $21. (3) The Bostonian made it six wins from seven starts when first up from a spell with victory in the Canterbury Stakes. That was his third career Group 1 win. The 1500m at this level remains a little query, even though he's won up to 1600m previously. He's got a strong second up record as well so I wouldn't rule him out. (7) Super Seth is well and truly good enough to win, however he's had a little setback since his last run in the Futurity Stakes and he'll need to be at 100% to win here.
Race 6 - G1 Rosehill Guineas (Market)
Fascinating edition of the Rosehill Guineas. We've seen horses come out of the Randwick Guineas, Australian Guineas and New Zealand Derby to win this race in the past few years, and we've got runners from all three of those races here. (2) Shadow Hero is clearly the horse to beat, coming off a strong performance when winning the Randwick Guineas. He beat (1) Castelvecchio by a length over this distance at this same stage last preparation in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes, so he should relish the step up in trip for today's race. Castelvecchio was a bit disappointing in the Randwick Guineas but I said pre-race that I thought he needed 2000m to show his best and he gets that much-needed step up in distance today. No surprise to see him turn his form around. (3) Warning draws the inside gate and he's run well in both starts this prep. He'll need every bit of 2000m to be winning this but the gate gives him his chance. (4) Sherwood Forest and (5) Scorpz come out of the New Zealand Derby. The drop back from 2400m to 2000m is always a concerning factor for mine, but we've seen it done with success in this race in the past so it's less of an issue on this occasion for me. (10) Chenier is a bit of the X-factor. His effort to run 4th in the Australian Guineas was enormous after almost coming down early in the race. The form out of that race has been more than franked with Superstorm's performance in the All-Star Mile. Third up from a long spell, up to 2000m and for a Grand Final stable, it would be no surprise to see him win, though Ollie does elect to ride the stablemate Warning.
Race 7 - G1 Golden Slipper (Market)
Click here for our comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the G1 Golden Slipper!
Race 8 - G1 The Galaxy (Market)
I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm jumping on (3) Kementari here. He was a dud at stud and was gelded as a result and he makes his much-anticipated return to the track today. I was very keen on taking him on in the past but the gelding operation is what he needed and hopefully now he can really show us what he's made of. His trials this time in have ben enormous, he goes very well fresh, James McDonald goes straight on for Godolphin and at $13 I'm going to have something on each way. It's a complete lottery so just about anything could win. (8) Fasika, (10) Madam Rouge and (14) Anaheed are all light-weight chances.
Race 9 - G3 Birthday Card (Market)
Very interested to see (11) Anjana here, with Lindsey Smith sending the mare to Sydney after finishing just under 5L off the winner in the Oakleigh Plate first up. You can forgive her for that run where it was a day that you just had to be up on speed and on the rail. She drops significantly in grade back to a G3 for fillies and mares here, she's got a good second up record and has three wins at the distance. Already been a signficant amount of money for her in early betting. (7) Bangkok is one worth throwing in at good odds. She always need her first up run but she tends to improve significantly second up. She's never placed from four attempts when first up but has never finished out of the top two from three starts when second up. (3) Manicure won impressively first up in Melbourne last prep and has to be respected.
