Boxing Day (for us Aussie fans) in the NFL serves up a tasty three game slate in the final stretch of the 2025 season. With playoff positions tightening and division races still unsettled, this slate features meaningful matchups where every game impact seeding and momentum. Teams with postseason life still on the line will square off against rivals, while others have pride and future positioning to play for.
NFL Week 17 Boxing Day Betting Tips
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Friday 5.00am (AEDT)
Washington enter this Christmas Day battle having picked up a rare win over the New York Giants in Week 16, but overall they sit with a disappointing record and are eliminated from playoff contention. Their efforts this season have been commendable at times, yet inconsistency on both sides of the ball has kept them from meaningfully threatening the top of the NFC. On these short weeks, establishing a physical tone early has been a necessity, and Washington’s front seven will try to make this game ugly and competitive.
Dallas have also seen their season bottom out in recent weeks, with official elimination from playoff contention after falling to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16. They carry a 6-7-1 record and have lost the tightest margins in key games, with offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses costing them in the NFC East race. Dak Prescott has maintained commitment to playing through the end of the year, setting up this matchup as a chance to build some late-season confidence, even without postseason stakes.
Prediction: Both teams enter this one with nothing to lose, but Washington’s home atmosphere and willingness to play hard sloppy football could pull this into a tight script. Dallas still have more firepower offensively, and Prescott’s leadership should keep them in the fight, but this feels like a gritty, emotionally charged game where home edge matters. Either way I like the unders in this one.
Under 50.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Friday 8.30am (AEDT)
Detroit limps into this matchup at 8-7 and facing a must-win situation if they hope to claw back into a very narrow playoff picture. Their Week 16 loss to Pittsburgh left them on the outside looking in, and fans are watching nervously as the Lions attempt to balance urgency with execution. Their offence has shown flashes of elite potential this season, but mistakes in bigger games have cost them dearly and now they need to tighten play if they want to extend their season beyond Week 18.
Minnesota sit at 7-8 and are already eliminated from postseason contention. Their season has been marked by instability at quarterback and offensive line rotations, which has made it difficult for them to string together consistent performances against middle of the league defences. Recent form has been slightly better on the defensive side, but without stakes driving them forward, they risk playing flat against a rival with more to play for.
Prediction: The Lions’ desperation and offensive upside give them an edge in a game where the Vikings may lack the motivation of a playoff race. Detroit should be able to push the tempo and make enough plays to keep this competitive. I lean Lions 27 to 17 with Detroit taking control in the second half.
Lions -7.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Friday 12.15pm (AEDT)
Kansas City come into this game at 6-9 after a disappointing Week 16 loss, leaving them mathematically out of playoff contention and without the same urgency that defined their dynasty years. Injuries to key players have derailed their offensive explosiveness, and inconsistency in game script management has left them in too many uphill fights. Learning how to close games earlier and cultivate turnaround momentum will be the main talking points as they try to salvage pride and future belief.
Denver enter as one of the league’s true contenders at 12-3 and currently tied atop the AFC standings with New England after their Week 16 loss to Jacksonville snapped an 11-game win streak. Their run game and defence have been outstanding for much of the season, and Bo Nix has taken meaningful steps as a leader, avoiding big mistakes and managing games with poise. The Broncos still control their own destiny for home field advantage in the AFC, making this Christmas Day spotlight all about finishing strong.
Prediction: Denver should be able to impose their balanced attack and disciplined defence over Kansas City’s inconsistency. Even if the Chiefs find flashes of rhythm, the Broncos’ ability to sustain drives and limit big plays under pressure should make the difference. I like Broncos 30 to 20, with Denver pulling away late as they remind the league why they’ve been one of the best teams all season.
Over 36.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
