Week 16 arrives with playoff seeding scenarios tightening across both conferences. Division races are on the line and wild card spots still up for grabs, meaning every possession matters more than ever. Check out our preview and betting tips for the key games in the Monday morning slate below.
NFL Week 16 Monday Betting Tips
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
SUNDAY 12.20pm (AEDT)
We know this game is on Sunday (AEDT) but it was too big of a matchup not to be previewed this week!
Chicago continue to lead the NFC North and impress with a suffocating defence that has forced turnovers and controlled field position all season. Despite injuries to key offensive weapons like Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, the Bears have leaned on opportunistic play, a strong run game, and improvement from their young quarterback to stay competitive with the league’s best. Chicago’s ability to win messy, grind-it-out games has been a major reason they sit atop the division.
Green Bay arrive with a 9-4-1 record and are still very much in the mix for home field in the NFC. Jordan Love has continued to play with poise, even as injuries have tested the depth of their roster. The recent loss of pass rusher Micah Parsons to a torn ACL is a major setback for their defence and could influence how much pressure they’re able to generate. Running back and offensive line health are questions this week, and if they can’t establish rhythm early, the Bears front will dictate much of the game.
Prediction: This game still feels like a Bears lean. Chicago’s defence has been one of the most disruptive units in football and has kept them ahead in the NFC pecking order. The Packers have talent and leadership, but Chicago’s ability to win these rivalry games, even when banged up, makes them the safer bet. I like the Bears 24 to 20 in a physical, low-margin NFC North showdown.
Under 46.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions
MONDAY 8.25am (AEDT)
Detroit come into this one with a big opportunity to strengthen their postseason positioning. The Lions offence has shown balance all season, able to move the ball on the ground when needed and strike through the air when the moment demands it. Their defence has also been opportunistic, forcing turnovers and generating pressure at key moments. Health has been mostly favorable lately, allowing them to build continuity as the season heads toward its climax.
Pittsburgh arrive with an 8-6 record also trying to strengthen their playoff case. Their defence has historically been a strength and still has the ability to keep them in games, but recent news around key absences, including linebacker T.J. Watt out and Nick Herbig sidelined, weakens their pass rush and could be the difference in a tight contest. Aaron Rodgers’ wrist isn’t fully healed either, and while he’s playing through it, it’s something to monitor late in games where pocket mobility and grip strength matter.
Prediction: Detroit looks to be the more complete team overall. Pittsburgh’s defence will make this competitive, but their diminished pass rush and offensive limitations make it tough to see them consistently flip field position. I like the Lions 27 to 17, controlling tempo and using turnovers or short fields to tilt the game in their favour.
Lions -6.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
MONDAY 12.20pm (AEDT)
Baltimore are fighting for playoff positioning and ideally to climb within their conference standings. Their defence remains disruptive when healthy and they have the offensive balance to win in multiple ways. This week’s injury report shows some concerns, with a few defenders limited and quarterback Lamar Jackson dealing with a mild illness in practice, but overall the Ravens still have the horses to impose their will at home if they’re at full strength Sunday.
New England arrive in Baltimore as one of the league’s elite, sitting at 11 and 3 and firmly atop their division. The Patriots have been built on structure, discipline, and weekly adaptability, pairing a controlled, efficient offence with a defence that consistently wins situational downs. They have protected the football, dominated field position, and shown an ability to close tight games, which is why they are firmly in the conversation for a top AFC seed. This is a team comfortable winning on the road and unfazed by hostile environments, particularly late in the season.
Prediction: This is a gutsy assignment on the road and Baltimore’s home field and balanced attack give them an edge. If New England can slow the tempo and keep this in manageable down-and-distance situations, they could stay within striking range, but Baltimore’s depth and ability to flip field position late should tell. I lean the Ravens 23 to 20 in a closer than expected battle.
Under 47.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Other Tips
Eagles at Commanders - Commanders +7 ($1.88 at Dabble)
Chargers at Cowboys - Cowboys -2.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
Vikings at Giants - Under 43.5 ($1.91 at Dabble)
Bills at Browns - Over 41.5 ($1.91 at Dabble)
Jets at Saints - Saints -4.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Buccs at Panthers - Over 45.5 ($1.91 at Dabble)
Bengals at Dolphins - Dolphins +4.5 ($1.89 at Dabble)
Chiefs at Titans - Under 37.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
Jaguars at Broncos - Broncos -3 ($1.88 at Dabble)
Falcons at Cardinals - Over 47.5 ($1.91 at Dabble)
