The final game of the first week of the NRL Finals, pits the Minor Premiers up against the Brisbane Broncos in Canberra. The Raiders have taken over as Premiership favourites, whilst the Broncos have roared back into Premiership calculations, and the winner of this game will no doubt be quite short in the futures market next week. A massive game ahead.
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Raiders vs Broncos Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Qualifying Final
Can the Minor Premiers go all the Way?
The Raiders have had a season that even the most die-hard fan wouldn’t have envisaged, winning 19 games to finish four points clear at the top of the table. If you take their round 27 loss out of the equation, given they rested almost their entire squad, the Raiders come into the finals on the back of 12 wins in 13 games, with their sole loss coming to the Dragons in round 22. They have been in terrific form all season and deserve their Minor Premiership in a season where no other team has really dominated. Despite their terrific season, the Raiders have never really been rated that highly by the market, having been underdogs in 10 games this season, and never being rated amongst the elite teams until very late in the year.
There’s not a lot to say about the Raiders last game, as they were crushed 62-24 by the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium. The Raiders rested just about everyone and were never expected to match it with the Dolphins in a game that meant nothing for the Green Machine. It was a good chance for Ricky Stuart to blood some rookies and get them some game time heading into the finals in case they are called upon.
The previous week saw the Raiders clinch the Minor Premiership with a solid 24-10 home victory over the Tigers. The Raiders come in hot and will be hard to beat in Canberra this weekend.
Reece Lightning the Star for the Fast-Finishing Broncos
The Broncos’ season appeared over as little as a month ago, as they went down 22-2 to the Storm and lost three stars in Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam, and Selwyn Cobbo to injury. Since then, though, the Broncos have won four straight with an attack that looks like the best in the league right now, averaging 38 points per game over the past month. Reece Walsh has taken over as the Broncos’ main man, with his form simply outstanding in that month of football. The Broncos were $26 to win the comp after that loss to the Storm in round 23, and now they currently sit at $6 to win, the third favourite in the betting market. What a turn around.
We last saw the Broncos last Thursday night, where they played host to the Melbourne Storm at Suncorp Stadium. Despite the Storm being without Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen, they still closed favourites for the matchup. In an entertaining opened 39 minutes, the Broncos led 6-4 in a one try apiece defensive clinic. However, the Broncos scored a try either side of half time to blow the lead out to 14 points, and they never let the Storm back into the contest, eventually running away 30-14 winners. Despite the loss, I don’t think the Storm would have minded the result as much if it wasn’t for the season ending injury to Jahrome Hughes, who went off after only 25 minutes with a fractured forearm.
As mentioned, Reece Walsh was in everything, scoring two tries, setting up another, breaking the line once, busting five tackles and kicking 7 from 8. He really is on fire right now.
Raiders vs Broncos Recent History
This has been a tasty recent rivalry, with the Raiders winning five of the last nine games between the teams. They have dominated at this venue for the past 6 seasons, winning four of the five games played at GIO Stadium, with the Broncos’ lone victory coming in 2023 where they got home 29-18 in round 26.
The teams last met all the way back in round 2 this season, at this very venue, where the Broncos closed 11.5-point road favourites, with a total of 51.5. If anything shows you how far the Raiders have come this season in the eyes of the market, this surely is it.
The Raiders, coming back from a victory in Las Vegas in round 1, got off to a quick start against the Broncos, signalling that their attack in week 1 may not have been a fluke. The Broncos hit back, trimming the deficit to 2 just before halftime, however a Matty Nicholson try on the stroke of halftime proved a catalyst, as the Raiders came out and put on three unanswered tries to start the second half to lead 32-10 with 20 minutes left. The Broncos scored two unanswered tries at the end, but it was a thoroughly deserved 32-22 win for the home side.
It was a real early season performance from the Broncos, as they missed 44 tackles and made a whopping 14 errors, in a game the Raiders’ forward pack showed their strength by outgaining the Broncos revered forward pack.
Individually, Payne Haas was a beast for the Broncos, making 36 tackles (0 missed), running for 164 metres and popping seven offloads, whilst Jesse Arthars scored three tries on the left edge for the Broncos. For the Raiders, Seb Kris ran for 162 metres, broke the line twice, set up two tries, and busted 8 tackles, whilst Matty Nicholson had two tries and 7 tackle breaks.
Two of the Top Attacking Teams to Fly Over Total
The Raiders opened up 3.5-point favourites on Sunday evening, before the number came down to 2.5 once teams were announced on Tuesday afternoon. The number has stayed at 2.5 ever since, and it will be interesting to see if the Broncos money comes in closer to kick off. Not that I like the Broncos, but I can see a lot of punters coming in on the form of the Broncos, and the media attention they, and Reece Walsh, have been getting of late. I make the Raiders 3.5-point favourites for this one, and honestly, I think this is the toughest game of the week to pick the winner. I also think it is the game of the week, so I cannot wait to watch it, however I won’t have a bet on the side here.
The total is where I will make my play for this Sunday afternoon clash, with the total opening 43.5, far too short in my opinion. It has been bet up to 44.5, and if the weather in Canberra holds up, I believe this will go up towards 47.5/48.5 by kick-off. My fair total is 50.5, and I see terrific value in the over here. I think it’s been lined a little lower due to the importance of the game, but with two tremendous attacks going head-to-head, I’ll take the over. The Broncos have been a little more of an under play this season (11-13), however they have shown lately that their attack is raring to go. Give me the over.
Over 44.5 points
$1.91 (2 Units)
Raiders vs Broncos Player Prop Bet: Reece Lightning Won’t be Stopped
Our Best Prop Bet: Walsh 1+ Try
Five tries in his last four games, Walsh is the form player in the competition right now, and on a nice Sunday afternoon, I’ll back him in again here at plus money.
Reece Walsh (1+ try)
$2.65
Same Game Multi: Raiders vs Broncos
Leg 1: Over 44.5 points – See best bet.
Leg 2: R Walsh (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: T Starling (1+ try) – Starling is always dangerous from dummy half, and also has a knack for being in the right place at the right time. Huge odds to score here.
Same Game Multi Odds: $17.00 at Dabble
Raiders vs Broncos Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 14th September 2025
Location: GIO Stadium - Canberra
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Sunny, 15 degrees
Odds: Raiders ($1.68) vs Broncos ($2.20)
Line: Raiders (-3.5)
Points: 44.5
Where to Watch Raiders vs Broncos
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