The first of two NRL sudden death finals games this weekend comes to us from Auckland, as the 6th placed Warriors host the four-time defending Premiers, the Panthers. The winner of this game will know their opponent in week 2 of the finals, with the loser of Friday Night Football between the Storm and Bulldogs set to host the winner of this matchup next week.
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Warriors vs Panthers Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Elimination Final
Warriors to Start Planning for 2026
The Warriors have spluttered into the NRL finals this season, winning just four of their last 10 games during the season. After starting hot and looking all but assured of making the top 4, a cruel season long injury to halfback Luke Metcalf has truly stalled their season, and it looks very likely that they’ll be bounced in week 1 of the finals series.
Last week, the Warriors headed to Brookvale to take on the Sea Eagles on Friday night, where they closed solid 6.5-point road favourites. In what was one of the more extraordinary starts to an NRL game that I can remember, James Fisher-Harris set the record for the fastest ever try in an NRL game, as he scored in the first minute of the game, off the kick-off to set the Warriors up for a chance to lead from the front. Unfortunately, just 15 minutes later the Warriors were down 14-6 after three quick tries to the Sea Eagles. The next 25 minutes was tight, with a Watene-Zelezniak try drawing the Warriors closer to the Sea Eagles, who led just 14-10 at the break. Two quick tries in the second half to Manly made it look very much like this game could get out of hand, and they led 26-14 with just 7 minutes left. Two late Warriors tries split by a DCE field goal ended the game Manly 27, Warriors 26. The Warriors will look back and think they should have won this game and will come into the finals low on confidence in my opinion.
Erin Clark was a beast for the Warriors, running for 192 metres, making 41 tackles, popping six offloads and busting eight tackles. RTS and CNK also got through plenty of work, both running for over 190 metres, whilst James Fisher-Harris also looked great.
Can Cleary Drag This Team to a Fifth Straight?
The Panthers dynasty looks to be coming to an end in season 2025, finishing 7th in the regular season after once sitting last on the ladder a decent portion into the season. Yes, there is still the chance they can shock the NRL and win the Premiership, yes, they are the Panthers, but if you’ve watched the Panthers play this season you can just tell they aren’t that team this year. Despite the big end of year run, the Panthers haven’t won a game against a top 8 team since round 17, when they snuck past the Bulldogs 8-6. Their form isn’t Premiership winning football, and I believe if they are lucky enough to sneak by the Warriors this week, they go down in week 2.
Last week, the Panthers brought most of their stars back after famously resting 16 players in round 26, as they took on the Dragons at WIN Stadium. The Panthers jumped out of the gates with an early Tom Jenkins try, and dominated the opening half of the game, leading 22-6 at the break. They allowed a brief comeback from the home side, who scored two tries in six minutes, however bounced back with two tries in six minutes themselves to run away with the win, 40-20. Despite the huge win, it still didn’t look like the Panthers of old statistically, with the post contact metres, and running metres in general not overly high considering the victory. 12 errors didn’t help, and if they make that many this week, the Warriors can definitely beat them here.
Nathan Cleary was the puppet master, as the newly crowned three-time Merv Cartwright Medal winner scored a try, set up two others, and created four line-breaks on his way to another match winning performance. Paul Alamoti was also tremendous, so much so that the Panthers have sensationally dropped Tom Jenkins to fit Alamoti into their team this week. Alamoti ran for 190 metres, scored two tries, broke the line twice, and busted 7 tackles on the road to his redemption.
Warriors vs Panthers Recent History
The Panthers, rather expectedly, have dominated this recent rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 matchups between the teams. They have also won the past two at this venue, with the Warriors last beating the Panthers at Go Media Stadium in round 24 in 2018. The only win for the Warriors in the past 10 was during Magic Round last year, where they defeated a Cleary-less Panthers 22-20 after a late try to Taine Tuaupiki.
In the most recent matchup, the Warriors hosted the Panthers in round 16 at Go Media Stadium as massive 13.5-point favourites, with a total of 44.5. Hang on, the Warriors closed 13.5-point favourites? Correct. The Panthers came into the game without their Origin quintet of Cleary, Martin, Yeo, Edwards, and To’o. It was the Panthers who jumped out of the gates early, with a 16th minute Tom Jenkins try starting the scoring, before the Warriors took the lead after a converted Jackson Ford try in the 20th minute. A try apiece over the next 26 minutes had the Warriors ahead 12-8, before the Panthers hit the switch, scoring three unanswered tries to lead 28-12, before a late Warriors try ended the scoring 28-18. The Panthers dominated the game, and it truly felt like the loss that killed the Warriors’ season, along with the following week’s loss to the Broncos where they lost Metcalf.
For the Panthers, Scott Sorensen scored two tries, whilst Brad Schneider had his best game of the season, setting up three tries and looking dangerous with the ball. Blaize Talagi also stood up, scoring a try and setting up another, whilst Moses Leota was a beast in the middle, running for 174 metres and making 29 tackles.
For the Warriors, it was the usual suspects in CNK and RTS running all day, Erin Clark getting through a mountain of work, and Luke Metcalf setting up two tries.
Panthers in a Tight one
The Panthers opened as 7.5-point favourites on Sunday evening when the curtain came down on the regular season, before the number shifted to 9.5 on Tuesday evening after team lists dropped. The number hasn’t moved since then, and 9.5 seems like it may stick around until game day when late money might come in. I simply cannot get to this number and believe it has been made based on that previous result where the Panthers dominated the Warriors with their Origin stars out. My fair spread for this game is Panthers -5.5, and realistically this spread indicates the Panthers are 12 points better than the Warriors. The gap between these teams hasn’t been this big all season in the market, and that includes after round 1 when the Warriors were being written off after being hammered by the Raiders. It’s very hard to bet against the Panthers in the finals, however with a number advantage this big, and the fact Mitch Kenny is out of this game, I like the Warriors to cover this number. I believe there may be better value elsewhere though…
Looking at the total, it opened 43.5 and has been bet down to 42.5. I’m lower than this at 39.5, however with both teams in sudden death, I can’t back an under here. Both teams were close to 50/50 during the season when it came to overs/unders.
So, where do we go with this? Whilst I like the Warriors +9.5, I believe the Panthers 1-12 is where the value likes here and covers us with a Panthers 10 and 12 point victory. Yes, the Warriors could win this game, however I believe the Panthers will have too much class on Saturday evening and get the win.
Panthers (1-12)
$3.10 (1 Unit)
Warriors vs Panthers Player Prop Bet: Alamoti the Big Game Player
Our Best Prop Bet: Alamoti 1+ Try
Alamoti has looked great the past two weeks deputising for Brian To’o, so much so that the Panthers have sensationally dropped one of the signings of the season, Tom Jenkins. But Alamoti proved last season that he steps up in the big games and I have him scoring a try this week.
Paul Alamoti (1+ try)
$1.87
Same Game Multi: Warriors vs Panthers
Leg 1: Panthers (1-12) – See best bet
Leg 2: P Alamoti (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: A Pompey (1+ try) – Four tries in his last five games, taking on the right edge of the Panthers, which has struggled all season.
SGM Odds: $13.00 at Dabble
Warriors vs Panthers Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 13th September
Location: Go Media Stadium - Auckland
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Windy, 13 degrees
Odds: Warriors ($3.20) vs Panthers ($1.35)
Line: Panthers (-9.5)
Points: 43.5
Where to Watch Warriors vs Panthers
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