The second game on NRL Super Saturday heads to Townsville as the Cowboys host the Storm. While a host of key players will be absent for this clash, the importance of grabbing a victory has never been higher. Both teams will have a strong set of players wanting to make a name for themselves in this contest. Nothing is every certain in rugby league, but this game looks set to be a great contest. Before You Bet is also here to make sense amid all the chaos, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Check out our full preview and NRL betting tips for the clash below and if you’re keen to back in our tips, then simply join Betr via this link!
The Cowboys captured a much needed 30-24 road victory over the Titans to break their 3-game losing streak last Sunday. In a close contest, the Cowboys were never assured of victory until the final whistle sounded, squandering several chances and allowing their opponents to fight their way back into the match. The fact that they won with just a 47% share of possession, a 76% completion rate, making significantly fewer metres and missing 29 tackles will give them confidence moving forward. It is an important win that they must build on, improving their gameplay and delivering more of the same application and effort over 80 minutes.
The Storm hosted the Sharks last week and after a tight first half where they lead 10-6 at HT, they powered their way to a 30-6 FT scoreline courtesy of patient play. Scoring 3 tries in the final 16 minutes highlights their persistence. They controlled the match with 55% possession and an 89% completion rate, giving minimal opportunities to their opponents. They made 8.7m per carry (made 509m more than their opponents), had significantly more PCM’s (567 vs 431) and missed just 21 tackles. It was the no nonsense style of performance that we have come to expect from the Storm and one that others in the competition should take notice of.
The Storm are the superior team in attack and defence. They average 32ppg in attack and concede an average of 18ppg defensively. The Cowboys score just 21ppg and leak 31ppg.
The Storm struggle traveling north. They have won just 1 match here in 4 attempts. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have a 54% win record at this ground. It is also a large reason why that their Round 14 38-14 win is the only victory the Storm have had in the past 5 matches.
Blowout victories and high scoring contests are normal when these two sides meet. The average margin of victory is 19.8 points, with just 2 games decided by 12 points or less. The average total points scored is 57.4 points, with the lowest being 42 points.
Both sides are heavily impacted by players away on representative duty. The Storm are further hampered by injury and whichever team can cover their losses the best will prevail in this contest. The odds suggest that the Storm are more capable; the Cowboys form this season with the players remaining in their team has been questionable at best. Perhaps they will be hoping their opponents traveling record negatively impacts them. You can never rule out a team like the Storm. They have depth, tenacity and a desire which is classified as a ‘next man up’ mentality. The Cowboys should be closer than what the odds are suggesting and while the Storm are the preferred selection, it will be far closer than most think. This brings the line into play and should be investigated on the off chance that the Storm fail to perform again in Townsville.
Leg 1 = Storm 1-12 – it goes without saying that this option should be used given the above selection and the preference for the visitors to win this match.
Leg 2 = Total Points Over 48.5 – see ‘Stats that matter’ for justification of this selection.
Leg 3 = Papenhuyzen to score – he is the Storms leading try scorer this season (12) and will be out to make a statement again in the absence of other key spine players.
SGM Odds = $10 at Dabble
Date: Saturday 5th July
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Time: 7:35pm (EST)
Odds: Cowboys$3.60 vs Storm $1.30
Line: +10.5
Points: 48.5
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Scooby is our NRL guru with over ten years experience writing about rugby league with Before You Bet and previously at The Profits. His background is in playing and coaching but he's enjoyed the switch to share his knowledge through his articles, as well as sharing his thoughts on Twitter.
Scooby's strength is assessing the overall team - what they offer across the field in a match and how the ethos of a club contributes to their success. Momentum also has a major impact on sports, and Scooby likes to explore this, while underpinning his judgement against a solid basis of statistical analysis. When combined with the aforementioned points, it combines for a holistic approach towards betting on rugby league.
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