The second NRL Semi Final heads to New Zealand on Sunday afternoon with a thrilling contest between the Warriors and Knights. Meeting only a few weeks ago, the stakes have increased now with the loser facing elimination. This sets the stage for an exciting contest with two quality teams set to do battle. Before You Bet is here to help find a winner or two with a comprehensive look at what is ahead in this exciting match.
Warriors vs Knights Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Semi Final
Time to regroup
The Warriors were upset at home 26-16 by the Dolphins, ambushed in the second half of the match as the result slipped away. Unable to build on a strong start which saw them lead 12-8 at HT, injuries at the beginning of the match and suffered throughout hurt their cause. The performance was flat also considering they scored just 1 try, accumulating 10 points via penalty goals. With a greater share of possession (53%), they had a superior completion rate (83%) and ran for 8.5m per carry. Unfortunately, they could only manage 2 line breaks and lacked creativity when it mattered and failed to turn their pressure into points. They were uncharacteristically poor defensively too, missing 54 tackles and allowing 9m per carry.
Playing with confidence
The Knights caused an upset with a 20-10 road victory over the Rabbitohs. Benefitting from a week off in Round 27, the Knights came out strongly and set a great intensity which they maintained for 80 minutes. Physical on both sides of the ball, they dictated the terms of the match. With a greater share of possession (51%), they completed at 83%, made 9.8m per carry, and had 584 PCM’s. This allowed them to make 6 line breaks, continually breaking the advantage line with their carries. Their defence was also strong, missing just 22 tackles and scrambling well to disrupt their opponent’s momentum.
Stats that matter
- These two sides have met twice this season, with the Warriors victorious in both. The Round 26 encounter is fresh in the mind of fans, whereby the Warriors outlasted a 12-man Knights team 46-22. In Round 3, they were far more convincing, winning 38-12.
- The Warriors will have reservations heading to this ground. They have just won victory from 6 attempts (17%) while it’ll be the first time the Knights take the field here.
- Despite 2 of the past 5 games between these sides being decided by 6 points or less, the average margin of victory is still 13 points. They’ve been unusual matches too with a total of 22 to 78 points scored; the average total points in the past 5 matches is 44.6 points.
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It is no surprise that the Warriors have an edge on both sides of the ball in 2026. They score an average of 29ppg compared to the Knights 24ppg. While that is close, the major difference comes in defence, where the Warriors concede just 17ppg compared to the Knights 24ppg.
The loss they had to have
It is an age-old saying in rugby league, but it is applicable to the Warriors this week. They were strong and motivated against the Dolphins to start the match but faded away. With emotion expected to again be high, the Warriors are better placed this week to handle such an environment. The two extra days to prepare for the Knights brings them into contention though; there were positive signs against the Rabbitohs but, in equal measure, there were some warning signs. Most are caught up with their dominance, but they were not perfect. Their attack lacked creativity in the early stages, and they failed to convert strong possession statistics into points. As good as they were, they were not all that they are made out to be.
The Warriors deserve credit for how they have performed throughout the season; you cannot be quick to overlook how they’ve dictated matches. Their most recent victory over the Knights can further cloud judgement but they are a better team from that outing. With nothing to prove and playing freely, the Knights might bring the best out in their opponents. Considering this, and the fact that it is a Finals match with such intensity, expect the winner to only emerge late.
Warriors 1-12
$2.75 (2 Units)
Warriors vs Knights Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points under 44.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Pompey to score – he is a threat at the best of times for the Warriors but seems to enjoy playing against the Knights of late. Pompey has 4 tries from his past 3 games against them and will get the ball in positive field position to create points.
Leg 3 = Marzhew to score – boasting the same record as Pompey, Marzhew is the main man for the Knights on the edge. He will be leading his team with strong carries at the beginning of sets and will want the ball in his hands to finish when it matters most.
Warriors vs Knights Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 20th September
Location: Eden Park, Auckland
Time: 4:05pm (AEST)
Odds: Warriors $1.48 vs Knights $2.70
Line: -5.5
Points: 44.5
Where to Watch Warriors vs Knights
Watch the Warriors vs Knights match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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