AFL Round 12 is the first of five mid-season bye rounds, and it gets underway on Thursday night with Brisbane hosting Essendon at the Gabba. The Lions are fresh off a steadying win against the Hawks, while the Bombers took care of business against the Tigers last outing. The Bombers have been absolutely ravaged by injury, so it will be the Lions who start this match as the overwhelming favourites.
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Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction & Tips: 2025 AFL Round 12
Brisbane Back in Business After Hawks Win
The Brisbane Lions got back to their best last Saturday at the MCG, with a solid 33-point win over Hawthorn. This was a much-needed bounce back after they'd been a bit up and down, including that loss to Melbourne at the Gabba in Round 10. Against Hawthorn, their midfield absolutely dominated, with Lachie Neale racking up 32 disposals and Hugh McCluggage grabbing 11 clearances. This control in the middle gave their forwards plenty of chances, and Callum Ah Chee cashed in with four goals, while Charlie Cameron snagged three, especially during a brilliant seven-goal second quarter. The win, which was also coach Chris Fagan's 200th game, showed off Brisbane's usual strengths: tough midfield play, quick ball movement, and dangerous forward options.
Injuries Derailing Essendon’s Season
Essendon's really up against it, mostly because of a massive injury list that's hit their key players hard. Even though they secured a 23-point win against Richmond in Dreamtime at the 'G last Friday, it came at a cost with more injuries. Kyle Langford (quad) and Zach Reid (hamstring) were hurt in the win, adding to their existing player problems. Defender Ben McKay is also sidelined for this upcoming game with a foot injury. These guys join a pretty big list already out, including ruckmen Sam Draper and Nick Bryan, defender Jordan Ridley, and forward Harrison Jones. All these absences are a huge challenge for Essendon's team setup and overall depth.
Stats Worth Noting
Looking at the numbers, Brisbane clearly has an edge over Essendon in crucial parts of the game. The Lions are 5th in the league for scores coming from stoppages, an area where Essendon is struggling in the bottom six. Brisbane also excels at getting the ball moving, ranking 3rd for scores created from their defensive half, while Essendon is down in the bottom seven on that front. This midfield and transitional dominance is highlighted by Brisbane being 1st for clearances, a sharp contrast to Essendon's position in the bottom five.
Lions Demolition Job? Here’s our Brisbane vs Essendon Tip
The Brisbane Lions look set to cover the -41.5 spread against Essendon. They're coming off a strong 33-point win over Hawthorn, and their stats in areas like scores from stoppages, defensive half transitions, and clearances are looking really good. Plus, they've got a great track record against the Bombers, winning four of their last five games, including big wins of 20 and 42 points in 2024 and 2023. Essendon, on the other hand, is struggling with a bunch of injuries to key players, which has really hurt their potential to perform against top tied sides. So, with Brisbane's current form, statistical edge, and historical dominance, we're leaning towards the Lions covering the spread on Thursday night.
Brisbane –41.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Essendon Player Prop Bet: Neale’s Bunnies
Our Best Player Prop: Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals
Lachie Neale (Brisbane) has had a little bit of an up and down year, but the 2x Brownlow Medalist is building into the season nicely and has been in nice touch over the past fortnight. Neale has hit 30+ in each of his last 2 games and has hit the mark 5 times this season. Neale had 42 disposals against the Tigers in Round 4 and due to all the injuries to the Bombers, this will be a similarly soft matchup for he and the rest of the Lions midfield brigade. On top of that, Neale loves playing against the Bombers – in the past 4 wins against them he’s collected 37, 41, 34, and 40 disposals. In fact, he averages 31.8 disposals against the Bombers in his career from 15 matches – the highest average against any opposition.
Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals
$2.50 (1 Unit)
Brisbane vs Essendon: Same Game Multi
Brisbane to 40+: For the reasons mentioned earlier. They should be far too good.
Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals: After a slow start to the season, Charlie is beginning to find some of his better form. 3 goals last week and 3 last time he played the Bombers. Should get plenty of looks.
Logan Morris 2+ Goals: 2+ Goals in 3 of his last 4 games and also had 3 scoring shots against the Bombers last time. The Bombers are bereft of key defenders, so this is a lovely matchup for Morris.
Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: Also mentioned above why this is a nice matchup for Neale. He’s in strong form and the Lions midfield should be well on top here.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.50 at Dabble
Brisbane vs Essendon Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Thursday, 29th May
Time: 7:30pm AEST
Location: Gabba
Weather: Cloudy, 22 degrees
Odds: Brisbane ($1.08) vs Essendon ($8.00)
Line: Brisbane –42.5
Points: 174.5
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Where to Watch Brisbane vs Essendon?
Watch the Lions vs Bombers match on Channel 7, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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