Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season delivers another monster 11-game Draftstars slate, featuring the familiar 7-game early window followed by a tight, four-game late window. With playoff races intensifying and coaching tendencies becoming increasingly predictable, this is the stage of the season where DFS edges are thinner, ownership is sharper, and correlation matters more than ever.
Unlike the divisional chaos of recent weeks, Week 16 provides a brief reprieve, with just one divisional matchup on the slate — but it’s a huge one. The Buccaneers @ Panthers clash could decide the NFC South, and games of this magnitude often produce condensed usage and fantasy-friendly volume.
From a totals perspective, the early window clearly funnels attention toward Bengals @ Dolphins (47.5) and Chargers @ Cowboys (49.5), while the rest of the slate sits largely in the high 30s and low 40s. These games will drive ownership, but that also opens leverage opportunities elsewhere.
The late window is headlined by Steelers @ Lions, carrying a slate-high 52-point total and shaping roster construction in a major way. That said, Falcons @ Cardinals (48) and Jaguars @ Broncos (47) provide strong alternatives for those willing to pivot.
Draftstars once again offers $20,000 guaranteed with $2,000 to first, and at this point of the season, winning lineups are built through smart stacking, intentional differentiation, and embracing variance. Let’s dive in.
NFL 2025-26 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 16 Monday
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett — $15,220
Brissett’s fantasy relevance is driven almost entirely by elite volume. Since taking over as Arizona’s starter in Week 6, he ranks 1st in dropbacks, 1st in passing yards per game, and 2nd in passing touchdowns, translating to the 4th-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks.
Arizona’s defence continues to force pass-heavy game scripts, and Brissett has consistently pushed past 40 attempts. The Falcons matchup is quietly strong, with Atlanta allowing top-10 marks in passing yards per game, yards per attempt, and CPOE since Week 11.
He lacks rushing upside, but sheer passing volume gives him one of the safest floors on the slate.
J.J. McCarthy — $12,140
McCarthy has taken a noticeable step forward over the past two weeks, ranking 3rd in fantasy points per dropback while showing improved downfield aggression.
He draws a Giants defence allowing the highest CPOE, 4th-highest passer rating, and 7th-most yards per attempt since Week 11. At this salary, McCarthy offers slate-flexibility and legitimate 25+ point upside if game flow turns pass-heavy.
QB Strategy
Quarterback is a classic pay-for-volume or punt-for-upside position this week. Brissett offers stability, while McCarthy unlocks aggressive roster builds. Single stacks are sufficient, but game stacks are viable in high-total environments.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane — $17,820
Achane remains one of the most explosive fantasy backs in football, ranking near the top of the league in yards per touch and receiving efficiency. Cincinnati struggles mightily against backs, particularly in the passing game, and Achane’s role should remain intact despite the quarterback change.
Even in negative scripts, Achane’s receiving usage keeps him fantasy relevant, making him one of the safest high-ceiling RBs on the slate.
Bucky Irving — $14,590
Irving’s workload has steadily climbed since returning from injury, and this matchup against Carolina sets up well. The Panthers rank bottom-five in yards before contact allowed, and Tampa Bay should lean on Irving heavily in a must-win spot.
He carries both touchdown equity and explosive-play upside at a friendly mid-range salary.
Jawhar Jordan — $8,000
Jordan is a conditional value play that hinges on the status of Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. If both sit, Jordan projects for RB1-level volume at minimum salary. Even with one active, his pass-catching role keeps him FLEX viable.
RB Strategy
Prioritise backs with receiving roles and game-script insulation. Achane anchors builds, Irving fits balanced lineups, and Jordan (if active) enables stars-and-scrubs constructions.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins — $14,050
Collins draws one of the best matchups on the slate against a Raiders secondary that has consistently struggled with perimeter receivers. He continues to operate as Houston’s alpha, ranking near the top of the team in target share, air yards, and red-zone targets.
Collins averages double-digit targets in competitive games, and if Las Vegas can keep this remotely close, he has slate-breaking upside. His combination of aDOT and end-zone usage makes him one of the highest ceiling receivers outside the late window.
Michael Wilson — $13,200
Wilson’s ownership should dip with Marvin Harrison Jr. likely returning, but the underlying usage suggests Wilson remains heavily involved. Since Brissett took over, Wilson has led Arizona wide receivers in routes run, targets per route, and end-zone targets.
Atlanta’s secondary struggles against physical receivers and allows chunk gains on intermediate routes — exactly where Wilson excels. He profiles as a strong leverage play with WR1 upside at modest ownership.
Jameson Williams — $12,800
Williams remains the ultimate boom-or-bust DFS receiver, but the context this week is ideal. Detroit plays in the highest totalled game on the slate, and Williams continues to see schemed deep targets and manufactured touches.
He ranks near the top of the Lions in air yards per target, and one connection can flip a tournament. In a projected shootout, Williams’ volatility becomes a feature, not a bug.
WR Strategy
Ownership will gravitate toward Lions and Steelers receivers. Using receivers from Texans, Cardinals, or Dolphins stacks provides natural leverage. Mixing high-floor volume plays with one high-variance receiver is optimal for tournaments.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller — $8,870
Waller draws an elite matchup against a Bengals defence that has been league-worst against tight ends all season. Cincinnati allows the highest catch rate and touchdown rate to the position, and Waller has capitalised, scoring six touchdowns in seven games.
With a rookie quarterback under centre, Waller’s short-area role and red-zone presence become even more valuable. He ranks near the top of Miami’s skill players in red-zone target share, making him a strong stacking partner with Achane.
Brenton Strange — $8,600
Strange continues to be one of the more reliable tight ends in DFS due to role stability. Denver is elite against wide receivers but consistently allows production to tight ends, particularly in scoring areas.
Strange ranks top two on the Jaguars in routes run and red-zone targets, and in a game projected to stay competitive, he should see steady volume with clear touchdown equity.
TE Strategy
Tight end is not a punt position this week. Both Waller and Strange offer realistic multi-touchdown paths and correlate well with popular game environments. Paying up slightly is justified.
Defence / Special Teams
New Orleans Saints — $6,700
At home against the Jets, the Saints offer strong contrarian appeal. New York ranks near the bottom of the league in turnover rate, sack rate allowed, and red-zone efficiency.
With most players gravitating toward Houston and Buffalo, the Saints provide leverage while still maintaining solid floor through pressure and home-field advantage.
Denver Broncos — $5,250
Despite a higher total, Denver’s defence remains elite, ranking top three in pressure rate, takeaways, and sacks. Their ability to create negative plays keeps them firmly in play, especially at this salary.
D/ST Strategy
Avoid chasing lowest totals blindly. Prioritise pressure, turnover potential, and ownership leverage. Both Saints and Broncos fit that profile this week.
Slate Strategy & Roster Construction
This slate revolves around deciding how much exposure you want to the Steelers–Lions game. You can build with it as a core, or pivot away and leverage secondary high-total games.
Late-window exposure matters. Correlate your lineups, don’t be afraid to leave salary unused, and be intentional with your differentiation.
Final Thoughts
Week 16 is where discipline meets creativity. The best lineups will blend strong game environments with smart pivots, embracing variance without abandoning logic.
Trust volume, lean into correlation, and don’t be afraid to be uncomfortable. That’s how tournaments are won at this time of year.
Good luck.
Suggested NFL Draftstars Lineup
