Monday Night Football heads to Foxborough for a NFL Week 13 matchup that looks like a mismatch on paper - but one that sets up beautifully for bettors. The New England Patriots (10–2) are surging toward the AFC’s No. 1 seed behind Drake Maye’s breakout Sophomore campaign and a quietly top-five scoring offence. The New York Giants (2–10), meanwhile, keep finding creative ways to lose close games, blowing multiple double-digit leads across their six-game skid.
But those records don’t tell the full betting story. New York’s offence is far more competitive than its ranking suggests, especially with Jaxson Dart returning from concussion protocol, while New England’s defence has quietly slipped in recent weeks despite the win streak. Add in the Giants’ willingness to play fast and aggressive under Mike Kafka, and suddenly the 46.5 total doesn’t look so high.
For this matchup, my plays revolve around trusting the Patriots to cover the number and leaning into offensive efficiency on both sides. New England -7 is my best bet, and I like this game to push above the posted total. Props are centred around TreVeyon Henderson’s expanding role and Wan’Dale Robinson’s growing target share.
Let’s break it all down.
NFL Week 13 Giants at Patriots Betting Tips
Last Week Recap
New England Patriots
The Patriots extended their winning streak to nine with a 26–20 road victory over Cincinnati — a game that showcased both their resilience and their flaws. Things started poorly when Drake Maye threw a pick-six on New England’s opening drive, but the rookie responded the way elite quarterbacks do: calm, efficient, and explosive in spots.
Maye finished 22/35 for 294 yards with a touchdown and an interception, delivering several high-level throws under pressure. Hunter Henry was the offensive engine, racking up 115 yards and a score, while Stefon Diggs demanded attention even in a “quiet” statistical outing. DeMario Douglas added his usual vertical spark, drawing safety rotations and creating spacing for Henry underneath.
On the ground, the TreVeyon Henderson takeover continues. The rookie logged another 18 touches and again outperformed Rhamondre Stevenson, who remains inefficient and lacks Henderson’s burst. Henderson’s 4.7 YPC on the season now looks like the real baseline, not a hot streak.
Defensively, New England bent but didn’t break, holding Joe Flacco under 200 passing yards and forcing Cincinnati into repeated long third downs. It wasn’t dominant — but it was disciplined, and that’s been the calling card during this run.
New York Giants
The Giants’ season of heartbreak continued in Week 12 with a 34–27 overtime loss to Detroit. It was another game they could have won — and another they simply refused to close out.
With Jaxson Dart in concussion protocol, veteran Jameis Winston got the start and actually lit up the Lions’ secondary, throwing for over 350 yards and multiple touchdowns. Most of the damage came via Wan’Dale Robinson, who delivered one of the best performances of his career: 9 catches, 156 yards, and a touchdown on 14 targets. It was the kind of “alpha” showing the Giants have been desperate for.
Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins both saw 50+ snaps, combining to give New York a functional three-receiver set on nearly every passing down. While the depth isn’t elite, the structure is finally consistent — which is why this offence has quietly produced top-12 yardage numbers over the past month despite the losses.
The defence, however, remains a disaster. New York allowed 260+ scrimmage yards to Jahmyr Gibbs alone, got bullied between the tackles, and once again folded late. This is now a bottom-three run defence, bottom-five explosive play defence, and arguably the worst fourth-quarter defence in the NFL.
The good news: Dart is back healthy for MNF.
The bad news: he can’t play middle linebacker.
Matchup Breakdown
Spread
The market is sitting between Patriots -7 and -7.5, depending on the book. For the purposes of this preview, we’ll work off Patriots -7, which aligns with my projection. Look around too, there are several Patriots -6.5 if you want to pay the juice to capture the key number of 7.
This handicap boils down to three core factors:
1. Quarterback Advantage: Maye vs Dart
Dart returning gives the Giants hope — he’s athletic, creative, and dangerous when structure breaks. But Maye is simply playing on a different tier right now. New England’s offence ranks near the top of the league in both passing yards and early-down success rate, and Maye has handled pressure exceptionally well in his second season in the league.
In a game where both teams will need to score, the gap under centre is meaningful.
2. Giants Run Defence vs TreVeyon Henderson
This is the biggest mismatch on the board.
New York’s run defence is bottom three in YPC allowed, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate. They are coming off a game in which they were absolutely shredded on the ground — and now face a Patriots offence that is trending toward a Henderson-centric run scheme.
If the Giants can’t force New England into long down-and-distance, the Pats will stay on schedule all game.
3. Patriots’ Red-Zone Efficiency
New England has been top-10 in red-zone touchdown rate since Week 7, while the Giants rank bottom-five over the same span. This is especially important when laying a touchdown: field goals lose covers; touchdowns win them.
The Patriots have been a touchdown-heavy red-zone team for two months.
The Giants haven’t been able to stop anything inside the 20.
Bet: Patriots -7 (Best Bet)
Total
The total is set at 46.5, and unlike many lopsided MNF matchups, the over is genuinely live here.
Three reasons:
1. New England’s passing game is too efficient
They average mid-20s per game and now face a defence that has been routinely torched for explosive pass plays. Maye + Diggs + Douglas + Henry is a matchup nightmare for a Giants unit that plays too much soft zone and misses too many tackles.
2. Jaxson Dart creates points — one way or the other
He is volatile, but volatility is how overs hit.
He’ll push the ball vertically, scramble into explosives, or turn it over on short fields. All three outcomes create scoring.
3. Garbage time is very live
The Giants don’t quit offensively — they move the ball even when trailing two scores. Their final six drives last week all crossed midfield.
New England into the high 20s / low 30s + the Giants reaching the low 20s is a perfectly reasonable script.
Lean: Over 46.5
Key Players & Prop Markets
TreVeyon Henderson — Over rushing yards (Best Prop)
Everything about this matchup screams Henderson.
- Giants run defence: bottom three across the board
- Henderson’s efficiency climbing weekly
- Stevenson losing snaps and touches
- Patriots trending more run-balanced when leading
Henderson’s burst is the exact profile that punishes bad run defences. If you’re scripting a Patriots cover, his usage should spike naturally.
Betting Plays:
- Henderson over rushing yards (Best Prop)
- Henderson over receiving yards
- Henderson Anytime TD
This is the safest angle on the board.
Wan’Dale Robinson — Over receiving yards
Robinson has turned into the unquestioned WR1 in New York’s passing game:
- 14 targets last week
- 50+ snaps
- Heavy usage in motion, crossers, and YAC-focused designs
- Dart’s favourite third-down read
The Patriots’ defence funnels passes inside — that’s where Robinson thrives.
Betting Play: Robinson over receiving yards
Other Notes / Considerations
- Darius Slayton deep shots are alive, but too volatile for official plays.
- Isaiah Hodgins is a red-zone wildcard but usage is inconsistent.
- Hunter Henry TD is always in play, but price-dependent.
Final Thoughts
This game offers a clean read: trust the more complete team. The Giants will move the football, and Dart’s return gives them enough offensive punch to avoid a total collapse. But their defence simply cannot handle New England’s balance, red-zone efficiency, or trench advantage.
The Patriots should lean on Henderson early, hit explosive plays off play-action through Diggs and Douglas, and eventually pull away in a game that features more points than the market expects.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Giants 20
New England covers, the game hits the over, and the prop board flows through Henderson and Wan’Dale.
Player Prop: T. Henderson over 61.5 rushing yards $1.90 (2 Units)
Patriots -7
$1.90 (2 Units)
