A second Divisional rivalry helps kick off the 2025/26 NFL season in style, as the Chargers take their home game against AFC West rivals the Chiefs to Sao Paulo Brazil, in a cracking Friday Night Football game in the NFL. With the Chiefs licking their wounds after being dominated by the Eagles in last season’s Super Bowl, and the Chargers looking to go one step better under second year coach Jim Harbaugh, there’s plenty on the line in this early season matchup.
Ben Bridge will dissect the matchup, previewing how things will play out alongwith his Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL match previews for all prime-time NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Mondays. All for free! Show your support for our free content by joining a new Australian betting site today!
NFL Week 1: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Corinthians Arena, Sao Paulo, Brazil - Saturday 6th September, 10:00am (AEST)
Last Season
The Chargers started a new era last year, with the signing of former Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh after the disastrous Brandon Staley years. Harbaugh definitely brought a more run heavy focus to the team in a west coast offense, however the offensive line struggled to hold it together and JK Dobbins, whilst looking good early, wasn’t able to carry the team when it mattered most. Justin Herbert looked right at home under the new regime, until it mattered most in the playoffs, throwing FOUR interceptions in the Chargers’ 32-12 Wild Card loss to the Texans. An 11-6 record was nice, but I feel the Chargers are still several pieces away from competing in their own division, let alone for Super Bowls.
Speaking of the Chargers’ division, the Chiefs won their ninth straight AFC West Divisional Title, on their way to a gaudy 15-2 record and the #1 seed in the AFC. A tough Divisional round win over the Texans saw the Chiefs into yet another AFC Title game, where they once again broke Bills’ hearts, winning 32-29 in a fourth quarter comeback win. Then, in the big one, the Chiefs were utterly dominated by an inspired Eagles outfit, in one of the most lopsided Super Bowls in recent memory, going down 40-22. Despite the record, the Chiefs weren’t as good as a 15-2 team in my opinion, and it is going to be fascinating to see if they can bounce back from the disappointment of losing the Super Bowl, or if this team may be on a bit of a decline.
Match Preview
The Chargers and Chiefs of course met twice last season, with both contests proving to be entertaining encounters. They first met in week 4 at Sofi Stadium, where the Chiefs closed massive 6.5-point favourites, with plenty of talk coming in of the possibility of Justin Herbert missing through injury. The Chargers quarterback suited up, but he was limited in his abilities, and despite a strong start from the Chargers they couldn’t hold on, eventually succumbing 17-10. The teams met again in week 14 at Arrowhead, where this time the Chiefs closed 4.5-point favourites, with a total of 43, just a half point higher than the week 4 game. In another low scoring affair, the Chiefs this time jumped out to the front, leading 13-0 at the half, before the Chargers dominated the third quarter to go ahead 14-13 heading into the final quarter. Two field goals to one in the final quarter saw the Chiefs sneak home 19-17, with the under hitting again.
When the lines opened on this game a couple of months ago, the Chiefs were lined as 3-point favourites at this neutral site venue, and the side hasn’t moved much at all off the key of 3. The total of 46.5 also hasn’t moved a great deal, and in my opinion reflects the markets opinion that scoring will be up this season. With a divisional matchup so early in the season, there’s no time for either of these teams to have an extended pre-season, with a win here extremely important. I make the Chiefs 3.5-point favourites, and I can see the line potentially closing 3.5 here.
Patrick Mahomes continues to be the difference-maker for the Chiefs, with his chemistry with Travis Kelce providing a reliable target for the superstar quarterback. With Xavier Worthy looking to take another step forward in his sophomore season, and Hollywood Brown back fit and healthy, Mahomes has some decent targets to go to despite the suspension of WR1 Rashee Rice. With running back Isiah Pacheco back to full health, the Chiefs offense should look better this season, despite a slight downgrade to the offensive line. Their defence will continue to be an elite unit this season and will keep them in plenty of games even if their offense is struggling.
The Chargers were covering giants last season, covering 12 of the 17 regular season games and will once again be a great shout to cover this week with the field goal head start. The huge news coming out of the pre-season for the Chargers was the loss of Rashawn Slater for the season, which is severely going to impact this offensive line, which struggled last year. If the Chiefs can create enough pressure, Herbert has shown that he can definitely throw errant passes, and the team that wins the turnover battle, in my opinion, will win this game.
Whilst I like the Chiefs to cover the 3 here, it’s the total where I will be looking to bet this early season game. I think this total has been inflated due to the massive score last season at this venue, where the Eagles beat the Packers 34-29, on a field that defenders couldn’t seem to get traction on. But if we look at the two totals last season (42.5, 43) between these two teams, they are both well short of where we sit here. The Chiefs (10 unders) and Chargers (9 unders) were both unders teams last season, and both teams only had three games all season each lined higher than this. Give me the under here in a big Divisional matchup.
Under 46.5 points
$1.91 (1.5 units)
Chiefs at Chargers Prop Bet
Looking towards a prop bet, and I like Ladd McConkey to cover his receiving yards prop. McConkey finished the season strong for the Chargers, and against a defence like the Chiefs, I like Herbert to target McConkey plenty, given the pressure the Chiefs will be bringing throughout. McConkey overs for me.
L McConkey over 71.5 receiving yards
$1.88 (1.5 units)
