A massive game kicks off week 14 in the NFL, as the NFC leading Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. With the Lions riding high on the back of a 10-game winning streak, will the Packers be the team that can bring this locomotive to a halt? Or will the Lions keep on their upward trajectory, towards the team’s first ever Super Bowl? This should be an absolute belter of a game!
NFL Week 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Ford Field, Friday 6th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Lions definitely weren’t at their best last week, as they took on the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day. They shot out of the gates well, leading 16-0 at half-time, but there was the distinct sense that they had left too many points out on the field, as they settled for three field goals when in good field position. That’s not the Lions we have grown accustomed to, as they have been one of the better redzone teams in the NFL this season. The Lions were lucky to escape in the end, with some horrific coaching by Matt Eberflus, who has since been sacked, and poor game management by rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, allowing the Lions to sneak home 23-20.
The Packers also played on Thanksgiving Day, as they took on the Miami Dolphins at home. There were no such concerns for the Packers, as they shot out of the gate to lead 24-3 at half time, before eventually rounding out 30-17 winners. Jordan Love was sensational, throwing for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst spreading the ball around to his multitude of talented offensive weapons. It was a big test for the Packers, as the Dolphins had been steadily improving with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, but the Packers never looked troubled on the way to their ninth win of the season.
Match Preview
The Lions and Packers met a month ago in Green Bay, with the Lions closing 3-point favourites on the road. It was one of those Lions games where they were dominated on the box score, but still got the job done through their efficiency on offense, and their stingy redzone defence. The Packers ended the game with 150 more total yards, 1 yard per pass play more than the Lions, and 2 yards per rush play more. The pick-6 Jordan Love gave up at the end of the first half certainly played it’s part, and the Lions were able to use their two-heading rushing monster to cruise home in the second half. The total in the game closed 48, and never really had a chance of going over to be honest.
Moving forward to this week, and the Lions were 5.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening as 5-point favourites after the Thanksgiving games. Since Monday though, it has been all Green Bay money coming into the market, as they moved all the way down to just a 3-point underdog on the road. Whilst I understand there is a lot of injuries on the defensive line for the Lions, I cannot get to this number. This is where we closed a month ago, when the Packers were at home! This is a HUGE upgrade for the Packers, and I can’t buy it. I make the Lions a 5.5-point favourite and love them at home this week. If you have Betfair, take the Lions down to -3, currently priced at $1.90.
Looking towards the total, it opened 51.5 on the lookahead, re-opened at 51.5, and currently sits at 51.5. When totals don’t move an inch all week, I rarely bet them, and it seems as though the market is pretty well on point for this game. My numbers would suggest the under is the bet, however in perfect conditions indoors in Detroit, and two high-level offenses, there’s no way I’m betting an under on this game.
A quick look at props, and there isn’t a great deal I like in this game. Both offenses like to spread the ball around, and both defences are capable of shutting down specific players. I’ll take a long shot at an anytime touchdown, but this is purely for spare change outlay. Brock Wright only has 15 targets this season, for two touchdowns. With the Packers focusing on LaPorta, St. Brown, Williams, and the running backs in the redzone, don’t be surprised to see Dan Campbell scheme up something for his blocking tight end in the endzone.
Prop Bet: Brock Wright (anytime touchdown) - $11 at SlamBet (0.5u)
Lions -3.5
$2.01 (2 Units)
