AFC West rivals take centre stage for Monday Night Football in week 5, as the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (3-1). Two dominant performances last season from the Chiefs saw them win the two games between the squads by a combined score line of 89-23. With the Chiefs threatening to run away with the AFC West early, the Raiders would love a victory at Arrowhead, something they have only done once in the past 8 years, with the Chiefs holding a dominant 12-2 head-to-head record in that time.
Our Thursday Night Football bet was an unlucky loser, in what was a brutal game of football to watch. The Broncos should have at least pushed the -3 spread, however lost outright in overtime, pushing our prime-time record to 5-1-4 (+2.87u) for the season.
Ben Bridge brings you his analysis and best bets for the game!
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Betting Tips
Arrowhead Stadium, Tuesday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
The Raiders finally got their first win of the season last week, as they defeated AFC West rival Denver Broncos 32-23 at home. Despite the win, question marks remain as to whether the Raiders are going to play a part in playoff football this season, as their defence looks below league average. To allow the Broncos to score 23 points against you in any circumstance is concerning, but to allow it when you thoroughly beat them in every statistical category at home, it’s worrying. Without the Melvin Gordon fumble recovered by the Raiders for a touchdown, the game could have ended very differently.
The Chiefs headed to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers, and from the first play of the game you just knew the Chiefs were going to win. Buccaneers kick returner Rachaad White fumbled on the kick-off, and two plays later the Chiefs led 7-0. Mahomes was immense, completing 23 of 37 passes for 249 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 1 pick, whilst the Chiefs ran for 189 yards on the ground, compared to only 3 from the Bucs. This was the best performance of the season for the Chiefs, so there’s a chance of a letdown this week, as well as a look ahead to a huge clash with the Bills next week.
Injury Report
Las Vegas Raiders
Jayon Brown / Micah Kiser (LB) – OUT
Justin Herron / Brandon Parker (OT) – OUT
Anthony Averett (CB) – OUT
Sam Webb / Cre’von LeBlanc (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Jordan Jenkins (DE) – OUT
Tyler Lancaster (DT) – QUESTIONABLE
Foster Moreau (TE) – QUESTIONABLE
Kansas City Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Harrison Butker (K) – OUT
Lucas Niang (OT) – OUT
Trey Smith (OG) – QUESTIONABLE
Derrick Gore (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
Trent McDuffie (CB) – OUT
Match Preview
As mentioned above, the Chiefs have dominated this serios of late, with Mahomes having a 7-1 record over the Raiders since he took over under centre at the Chiefs. That one loss, a 40-32 loss at Arrowhead in 2020, culminated in the Raiders’ infamous victory lap of Arrowhead Stadium in the team bus. Since then, the Chiefs have won the subsequent 3 matchups, 35-31 at Allegiant Stadium, 41-14 at Allegiant Stadium, and 48-9 at Arrowhead. I don’t know how big the chip is on the Chiefs’ shoulders still after this taunt by the Raiders, however given the teams are divisional rivals, I’d imagine they still use it as motivation.
Th difference in quarterback play between Mahomes and Derek Carr has been pronounced, with Mahomes currently 1st in the NFL in EPA per play (0.31), EPA per drop back (0.30) and 3rd in passer rating (108.4). Carr, meanwhile, has struggled and is sitting in 11th for EPA per play (0.04), 16th for EPA per drop back (0.02) and has the 20th highest passer rating (83.2). So, it would appear as though the loss of Hill hasn’t slowed this Chiefs offense, and the Raiders will have their hands full in this one.
The lookahead line for this clash was Chiefs -6.5. The number re-opened around -6.5 / -7, and has hovered around -7 to -7.5 all week. My number has the Chiefs a 7.5-point favourite, and as such I bet the -6.5 early this week. When looking at teams favoured by 7 or more this season, these teams have only covered the spread on 3 of 9 occasions, and have lost outright 3 times, plus one tie. The moral of the story, big favourites are struggling to cover. This is also a bit of a sandwich game for the Chiefs, with a highly emotional performance last week, and a lookahead to the Bills next week. Give me the Raiders are the current price for a small wager.
Despite unders being the flavour of the year, particularly in prime-time games, I am leaning heavily on the over in this matchup. Over 50.5 is currently available at $1.90 at Betfair, and capturing the key total of 51 is a great spot, given both these sides’ relatively poor defence. Over the past 4 contests, the average total has been 62.5, whilst all 4 of these games would have gone over 50.5 points. Give me the over.
Alternate Bet:
Raiders +7.5 - $1.90 at Betfair (1u)
Over 50.5 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
