Another MNF with AFC West rivals going head-to-head, as the Denver Broncos (2-3) head to SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-2). Prior to the season kicking off, everyone expected the AFC West to be the most highly contested division in the NFL, but it has fallen flat quickly. With the injuries to the Chargers and the poor play of both the Broncos and Raiders, the division is looking top-heavy right now. Nevertheless, this is a big game for both teams, with the Broncos needing a win to stay in Playoff contention, whilst the Chargers can draw level with the Chiefs for the lead in the division with a win here, and a loss for the Chiefs to the Bills. The contests have been split 1-1 in each of the last two seasons, with the home teams winning all 4 games.
Thursday Night Football was another bludger of a game, but at least we managed a small profit for our bets, going 1-1 (+0.5u). Our record for the season stays well in the positive, with our record now sitting at 8-1-5 (+6.07u) for prime-time games in season 2022/23.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Betting Tips
SoFi Stadium, Tuesday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
This is the Broncos 4th primetime game of the year and 2nd in a row, with the NFL surely wondering what they were thinking. Last week, the Broncos played the worst Thursday Night Football game in recent memory, and it only took one week to give it a competitor, with the horrid Bears / Commanders game this past Thursday. The Broncos were by far the better team against the Colts last week, however lost 12-9 in a game with zero touchdowns. After the game, news emerged that Russell Wilson was carrying a shoulder injury, however it seems he and the Broncos are looking for excuses for the inept offense they have displayed over 5 weeks. The Broncos offense went 2/15 in 3rd down efficiency last week, whilst converting on 0/4 redzone opportunities. Whilst their defence continues to bail Russell Wilson and this offense out, it may struggle this week against the Chargers.
The Chargers were down early to the Browns, trailing 14-3 by the end of the first quarter, however managed to salvage a victory, despite some questionable decision making down the stretch from Head Coach Brandon Staley. The Chargers offense looked good against the Browns, particularly on the ground, however Staley will want to increase the team’s success rate when it comes to 3rd down conversion and redzone efficiency, with the team around league average for 3rd down conversions and bottom half for redzone efficiency. They’ll also be hoping to get Keenan Allen back, however I don’t believe he will play, leaving Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler as the main weapons for Justin Herbert and this offense.
Injury Report
Denver Broncos
Michael Ojemudia (CB) – OUT
Justin Simmons (FS) – Questionable
Garrett Boles (OT) – OUT
Ronald Darby (CB) – OUT
Javonte Williams (RB) – OUT
Randy Gregory (OLB) - OUT
Tim Patrick (WR) – OUT
Josey Jewell (ILB) – QUESTIONABLE
Quinn Meinerz / Dalton Risner / Billy Turner (OG) – QUESTIONABLE
Melvin Gordon (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
Los Angeles Chargers
Joey Bosa (OLB) – OUT
Rashawn Slater (OT) – OUT
Jalen Guyton (WR) – OUT
Dustin Hopkins (K) – QUESTIONABLE
Trey Pipkins (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
Keenan Allen (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
The number for this game has been all over the place, with the look ahead showing Chargers as 3.5-point favourites. This changed drastically at open, after the Broncos horrible showing on Monday Night Football, with the number jumping to Chargers -6. With news coming out about Russell Wilson’s shoulder injury and that it is apparently healed, the Broncos have come back in to +4.5, which coincidentally is smack bang on my number. So, we’ve got to dive a bit deeper on this handicap.
This matchup pits up strength on strength, and weakness on weakness, with the Chargers offense matching up against the Broncos strong suit on defence. The Chargers haven’t had to face any of the league’s top defences yet this season, so it’ll be interesting to see how they do against the Broncos, who rank 4th in DVOA in the NFL. Whilst they haven’t faced any standout attacks, they have only conceded more than 17 points once this season, showing their defence to be top notch.
On the plus side for the Chargers, whilst their defence is no doubt bottom half of the league, their biggest issue is run defence. Given Javonte Williams is out, and Melvin Gordon is questionable, this plays into the hands of the Chargers, who won’t have to deal with the best of the Broncos’ running game.
I don’t trust the Chargers to win by margin, and whilst I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the Broncos pull off the upset, I’ll go with a tight one with the Chargers sneaking home. Small stakes this week, as I really don’t have a good read on the Broncos.
Chargers (1-13)
$2.45 (1 Unit)
