We went 3/6 in our NBL betting tips in what proved to be another very difficult Round 15. There were quite a few big upsets as well as a few close losses that made it a hard one to predict. However, we still came out of it even and will look to build on that with a profitable week in Round 16. Good luck to everyone following this weekends tips!
The first game of the round is a crucial one for both the Breakers and United. The Breakers are in a precarious position in the standings with a 10-12 record and probably need to win at least five of their last six games to potentially make the finals. Meanwhile, United are currently on top of the standings at 14-8 and need to continue to tick over the win column to make sure they stay ahead of the pack.
These teams have met twice this season and will play games three and four of the regular season series this weekend. The series is currently tied at one apiece thanks to the Breakers winning by seven points on the road, before United returned the favour a month later and defeated the Breakers by seven points on the road. United enter this game as slight favourites, which we deem fair based on recent results. However, the Breakers are in must win mode now and are coming off a big home win last time out, which made it four consecutive wins on their home deck. We see them making it five on the spin at really generous odds here.
Another huge game in the scheme of things will play out second up in a Friday triple header. The Bullets currently find themselves inside the top four, but only just. There’s just two wins separating them from the seventh placed Breakers, which shows just how tight the finals race is. On the other hand, the Kings are in an auspicious position with a 14-9 record and potentially need just one more win to solidify their place in the finals.
The Kings currently lead the season series 2-0 after winning both at home and on the road against the Bullets this season. They played just seven days prior to this game and will play another game two days after this one. It’s hard to argue with the success the Kings have had over the Bullets in recent times and to get them at $2 here seems like a steal. We’re happy to back them in to get the job done once more.
There’s no shortage of crucial games on this weekend, especially on Friday night with a third important game set to play out between the Wildcats and the Hawks. The Wildcats were able to bounce back from a few lean weeks with two big wins last weekend, leaving them in second place on the standings. While the Hawks find themselves one game outside the top four with an 11-12 record and need to win at least four, possible five of their remaining games to feature in the finals.
These teams have already played each other three times this season, meaning this will be the fourth and final game of the regular season series. The Wildcats currently lead the series 2-1, although the Hawks won their last match-up on December 23rd. We feel the spread has been set at about the right amount here, however we believe there’s significant value in the Unders in the Total Points market. In all three times they’ve met this season the total has gone under 174.5 points (162, 171, 158). With so much on the line here, we feel the scoring will be kept to a minimum once again.
The final game this weekend before we get the double-ups will see the Taipans hosting the 36ers. Unfortunately for the Snakes, their season was done and dusted a long time ago and they remain the only team mathematically out of the finals race. However, the 36ers season is still well and truly alive as they sit just percentage outside the top four. The Sixers must win at least three and maybe all four of their four remaining games, making this game against the bottom-dwellers a must win.
The Sixers have lost their last two (as have the Snakes), but they’ve come against the top two teams in the league in United and the Wildcats. Interestingly, their away record (6-5) is the third best in the league and is actually better than their home record (6-7). We expect them to improve further on their away record here with a big win in what looks like a do or die game against the Snakes.
The final game of the round sees the Illawarra Hawks hosting the Cairns Taipans on Monday night (7:50pm AEDT). This is the fourth and final meeting between these teams this season. The Hawks have won all three games in the series so far, meaning the Snakes are fighting to avoid a four nil sweep.
The hawks lost their opening game of the round to the Wildcats on Friday night. We expected their defence to hold up better than it did, but they were just unable to contain Bryce Cotton and co. in that game. They now absolutely must win this one against the Hawks to keep their season alive.
The Taipans now find themselves in another lengthy losing streak and come into this off a nine point loss to the 36ers. They just don’t have the defensive personnel to win games on a consistent basis.
Simply put, we see the Hawks winning this really easily. They’re in a do or die position and have matched up well against the Taipans in all three meetings this season. We expect a series sweep on Monday night.
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