Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 2nd.
It's the first day of the South Australian carnival, with dual Group 1s on the program - the Schweppes Oaks (2000m) and TAB Classic (1200m). They are supported by a further two Group 2s, one Group 3 and two Listed races.
The track is currently rated a Soft 7, with the rail in the true position. There is more rain forecast so the track may end up in the Heavy range.
Check out our preview and betting tips for every race below!
Morphettville Racing Tips: 2020 Australasian Oaks Day
Best Bet: Race 4 - (4) Sopressa
Best Value: Race 3 - (10) France's Boy / (13) Chapel City
Race 1 - Listed Queen Adelaide Stakes 1050m (Market)
Really tricky two-year-old race to kick off the card. I'm with (7) Zoushine on top with $5.50 on offer. She's had two career starts and has been pipped by Ecumenical in both of them, but that's a pretty strong form line and we can tie it into some others in the race too. Ecumenical came out and won again last weekend in dominant fashion in G3 company, franking the form, and Zoushine has only been 0.1L and 0.3L away from her when they've met. She gets the blinkers on for the first time here, the heavy ground is obviously some query, but she brings the right form. (5) Forever Free is the favourite and is undefeated in two starts, most recently winning at Caulfield on heavy ground, which is an obvious plus given the likely conditions. We can tie her form into Ecumenical through a horse called Ranting, who ran 2nd to Forever Free beaten 0.3L, and then ran 3rd to Ecumenical beaten 2.5L. It's a very simple way of lining the form up but with that in mind, you'd think Zoushine would be able to measure up given she's finished much closer to Ecumenical. The $6.00 about (6) Soul Obsession also looks an attractive price. She resumed from a spell with a dominant win at Mornington, leading all the way to cruise in by 3L on the heavy ground. She draws well again in barrier 3 here. She beat the luckless Wyld Savanna by 4L in that race and Wyld Savanna started single figures last Saturday and was again a forgive run. (1) Theresabearinthere bolted in as the well-supported favourite on debut here two weeks ago, leading all the way to win by 3.8L. He couldn't have been more impressive but he does draw wide here and the heavy ground is a major mystery. (2) Extra Time can be included at $26. He ran 2nd to Theresabearinthere as the well-supported second favourite and he didn't get a great deal of luck at all. Zoushine and Soul Obsession look the two for me at $5.50 and $6.00 respectively.
Also backing: (6) Soul Obsession $6.00
Race 2 - BM64 Hcp 1200m (Market)
(6) Harpuna debuted impressively at Ararat, leading all the way to score by 2.5L, with a further 5.5L back to the third horse. The obvious query is how strong that form is - I'm tipping not very - but he couldn't have been much more impressive. Peter Hardacre has only had seven runners at Morphettville this season, with three of those winning, and this is his only runner of the day. Ryan Hurdle has had 19 rides for Hardacre this season for five wins and seven placings. He draws wide but he'll come across to land on speed and looks a good chance of making it back-to-back wins. (14) La Croft is in a similar boat to Harpuna, in that she won a very weak race last start but did so in impressive style. She missed the start, was pushed about five wide during the run, but quickly put them to the sword to score by 4.6L. It was only a Strathalbyn maiden, but she at least has some type of metro form with her nose 2nd on debut here at Morphettville back in December. She's drawn well and from a top yard, it wouldn't surprise anyone to see her win again. I think both of David Jolly's runners should be included - (4) Rock Harbour and (9) She's Never Late. Rock Harbour was just never in the race over the short 1050m trip last start, settling last and under the pump before making ground late, but he was never likely. The step up to 1200m is a big plus for him. He won over this track and distance last preparation. The stable's top rider goes on third up today and he's won his only prior start on wet ground which is another positive. She's Never Late comes off a big win at Strathalbyn over 1350m, where she saluted by 3.9L. She's won on heavy ground previously which is a plus in a race where not many have been tested on wet ground. She has a few gear changes today and while the drop back to 1200m is a negative, at least she has form and race fitness on her side, which she might need if it's a testing 1200m on wet ground. Krystal Bishop takes the ride again - she's had nine rides for Jolly this season for four winners. Harpuna on top, very wary of La Croft, and Rock Harbour appeals as the value at $17.
Value: (4) Rock Harbour $17
Race 3 - BM82 Hcp 1600m (Market)
Three runners I'll be focusing on here in what looks a really open race. (3) Roselli Sting comes into this off a win over the track and distance last start. He's placed in 10 of his last 11 starts so he's awfully consistent and there's absolutely no reason he can't finish in the money again here. That win last start was actually his first over the mile from 19 attempts, and just his second at the track from 25 starts. He does get a negative jockey change with the apprentice taking over, but he draws well and should be right around the mark again at $6.50. (10) France's Boy is actually longer in the market than him at $8.50 but I don't think that should be the case. France's Boy ran 2nd to Roselli Sting last start, beaten a nose after leading most of the race. He gets a 1kg swing in the weights, and if you go back a few starts he actually beat both Sky Punch and Roselli Sting over this track and distance, and they all meet at the same weights here. France's Boy has a bette record on the wet ground than he does on firm ground, so he'll appreciate the conditions and he's got a decent record at the Morphettville mile. I think he's a good chance at each way odds here. (13) Chapel City is the stablemate to Roselli Sting and he looks a blowout chance at $34. He resumed over 1200m and after settling back in the field, he actually worked home fairly well. He jumps straight up from 1200m to 1600m second up and he's never finished out of the money from four starts at this track and distance. Zac Spain takes over the ride, he draws barrier 1 and he's won on heavy ground before. If you look back through his form, his sole win over the track and distance was actually over Handsome Return, and he meets him 6.5kg better at the weights here (granted it was a long time ago). Handsome Return is $8.50 while Chapel City is $34. Expecting him to go well at big odds.
Value: (13) Chapel City $34
Race 4 - Listed Port Adelaide Cup 2500m (Market)
Pretty keen on (4) Sopressa here. She ran a big race last start at Caulfield over 2000m, where she sat three-wide the trip and battled on strongly to be beaten 1.6L behind the likes of Sentimentalist and Mr Quickie. Sentimentalist is flying and undefeated for new trainer Mark Pegus, while Mr Quickie is a Group 1 winner. She's had two starts over 2500m and has run 2nd in both, and she's also got good form over 2400m, so the distance won't be an issue. She handles the wet ground, she has a good record at Morphettville, the visors go back on today, and provided she gets some luck from barrier 11, she should be going very close. (3) Oceanex has her first go at 2500m here, having previously only been tested up to 2000m, so automatically that is some query. She does have a win on heavy ground to her name, and her only other attempt was first up this prep in Sydney in Group 1 company, so you can forgive her for that. She's been racing in harder races in Sydney, so she brings strong form to the race, but I can't get her as short as she currently is at $2.50. (10) Tigre Royale has had three runs over 2400m leading into this, so he'll have no issue with the trip, and the race he comes out of has proven to be a strong form reference. (11) Looking Around can be included at $31. He started about $5.00 last start but just got too far back and was never in the race. He was a 3L winner over this track and distance the start prior to that, and that was on wet ground. (12) Hasta La Bullet is flying and should be included. Sopressa a clear top pick, Looking Around some value at big odds.
Value: (11) Looking Around $31
Race 5 - G2 Queen Of The South Stakes 1600m (Market)
Tricky race. (3) Snogging resumed with a terrific win at Bendigo, flying home along the inside to nab Clarice Cliffs on the line. Clarice Cliffs has since come out of that race and won easily so the form has been franked. She's a bit inconsistent Snogging and it's hard to know how she's going to perform as she's never put two wins together in her career, but she ran well without any luck second up last prep so I'll take the punt on her to show up today. The heavy ground is also a query but that can be said for plenty of others in the race. (1) Seabrook is a bit of a non-winner with just two wins from 19 starts, but those two wins have been at Group 1 and Group 2 level. She's had two starts this time in and has placed in both, one at Listed level and one at Group 3. The form out of her first up run is good, and it's hard to get a gauge on the form from her last start, though we did see Hang Man come out of that race and run well. She's performed well on wet ground previously, she should find a spot right on speed from barrier 1, and this looks a really winnable race for her. (6) Vanuatu isn't hopeless at all. She was also first up in the same race Snogging won at Bendigo. She's got a good second up record and has won on wet ground, but she does have a bit to turn the tables on Snogging given they meet at the same weights andthere was a 5.4L margin first up. (10) Poysed To Rain is a local hope and it will be interesting to see how she measures up. I think she can run a good race. She comes off a dominant win over 1400m in a much easier race, and her run prior to that was also huge. She's still only lightly-raced. She's horribly weighted against the likes of Seabrook given she's 32 rating points below her and carries just 4.5kg less, but she's still a bit unexposed. (13) November Dreaming gets in with 53kg and she comes here off a dominant win as the odds-on favourite at Pakenham last start. She's scary, in that she's clearly got talent and is a ligtly-raced Danny O'Brien filly, but let's not overlook the fact she won a Class 1 at Pakenham on a Thursday night. This is a huge step up in class.
Race 6 - G2 TAB Euclase Stakes 1200m (Market)
Good little contest here. (1) Garner is favourite at $2.90 after a dominant win in the Redelva Stakes last start. He's pretty bombproof - he's never missed a place in his nine-start career, which includes six starts on rain-affected ground. He had a few things in his favour last start though. He was completely blessed in run, landing a beautiful spot on the back of Xilong in the three-wide trail, who gave him a tow into the race at the right time. He also had race fitness on his side over the likes of Xilong and Roccabascerana. He's never finished out of the top two from five starts here at Morphettville, and there's no doubt he is the one to beat again, but I think they have their chances to turn the tables. (8) Xilong started favourite in that race last start and her form two back behind Funstar and Probabeel looks exceptionally strong. She can definitely be forgiven for failing last start. She was caught three-wide on speed working the entire race, which was her first race in seven weeks, and she was dropping from 1400m to 1100m. She draws the inside barrier today, gets the blinkers on for the first time, and so long as she handles the ground, she should be in this up to her ears. If you go back through her form, she actually has a 5L win over Garner to her name. (4) Roccabascerana also gets the blinkers on for the first time and the wet ground is going to play into his hands. He's undefeated on rain-affected going, though he is yet to run on a genuine heavy track. He draws alongside Xilong in barrier 2 and he did wander about a bit in the straight first up, so the blinkers look appropriate. (10) Sizzlefly finished 2.7L off Garner last start, which followed consecutive wins to open her campaign. I don't think the wide draw is necessarily a bad thing for her, especially with the speed on. She's won on both soft and heavy ground so she ticks a box that the others haven't and she should run well again at double figure odds. The smokey is (13) Broadwayandfourth, who has run in two 1100m races leading into today. Her runs haven't looked that great on paper, but she did reel off the second-fastest final 200m of the entire meeting at Caulfield last start and the step up to 1200m is exactly what she needs. Both career victories have come over 1200m, and she did run midfield behind the likes of Exceedence and Bivouac in the Coolmore last prep.
Race 7 - G1 Schweppes Oaks 2000m (Market)
An incredibly open edition of the Australasian Oaks. I count about 11 horses I could make a case for but I won't list them all. (5) Vegas Jewel goes on top. She was backed off the map into favouritism in the Schweppervescence here last start and it was a complete horror show. She got a long way back in the run and then ran into backsides for about the final 600m of the race. She never got clear, never got a crack at them and you can completely forget it says 12th of 16 in the form guide. That race is a pretty reliable form reference for this and the market obviously expected her to go very close to winning it. She was very good over this distance in the Spring before failing to run out the 2500m of the VRC Oaks. Slight concern that she comes into this without a hard run last start, but she's third up, up to her right distance, handles the wet ground, draws well and looks an appealing bet at $8.50. (9) Toffee Tongue is still a maiden but she's run 2nd to Colette in her past two starts which is obviously very good form for a race like this. She drops from the 2400m to 2000m which is always some query but she handles the heavy ground and draws well so has to be rated highly. (10) Silent Sovereign put in an eye-catching run over 1600m first up before coming out and winning the Schweppervescence last start. She'll handle the step up to 2000m. The heavy ground is a query but she looks to have handled Soft in the past. She maps well and has to be respected. (7) Betcha Flying follows a similar path to Egg Tart when she won this race in 2017 for the same stable. (16) Walking Flying is a blowout chance.
Race 8 - G1 TAB Classic 1200m (Market)
I don't want to say there's only two chances but there's only two horses I'm really keen on here. (1) Sunlight is the best horse in the race without a question. She's a three-time Group 1 winner and one of the country's most elite sprinters. I thought her first up run behind Gytrash was a pass mark. Gytrash is in the form of his like, had race fitness on his side and we know Sunlight isn't ever at her best first up from a spell. She really improves second and third up from a spell. She's only won once from six starts when first up, but has seven wins from eight starts when second or third up. Her second up record includes a 4.5L win on the Gold Coast, a G3 win at Caulfield, a G1 Newmarket Handicap win at Flemington, and a 0.4L 3rd behind Nature Strip in the G1 Moir Stakes. I don't necessarily think the gate is a terrible thing. Sure, it would have been better to draw in a bit but she should be able to roll forward and find a spot on speed anyway. The big query is obviously the heavy ground. She's got 11 wins from 19 starts on Good ground, but is yet to win from three attempts on Soft ground. With that said, her three Soft track runs include a 3rd in the Golden Slipper, a 2nd to Nature Strip when she was first up from a spell, and a 3rd in the TJ Smith Stakes where she travelled wide throughout. So her wet track form is hardly poor! There's nothing to suggest she isn't going to handle heavy ground. So with all that in mind, I think she's quite clearly the horse to beat. (2) I Am Excited is being underrated here and she appeals as the value at $12. Two starts back she won the G1 The Galaxy on wet ground in Sydney, where she beat the likes of Tofane, who has since come out and won a G1. She then ran 5th in the Sapphire Stakes on heavy ground last start. She was only beaten 3L and that was after sitting wide without cover throughout. The Sapphire Stakes has proven to be a good form line for this in the past. Even though she's unplaced in two starts on heavy ground, I don't think that necessarily means she doesn't handle it. She's a big price at $12. All the talk is of course about (16) Away Game, the two-year-old taking on the older mares and carrying just 47kg. Away Game was my best of the day when she won easily in Sydney last start but I'm heavily against her here. If she wins, so be it but I'll be taking her on for all she's worth. The difference between her beating up on two-year-olds and taking on some of the country's elite sprinting mares is enormous. We saw Jedastar try a similar feat in the Lightning Stakes last year, she was beaten out of sight and has only been seen once since. Away Game is a better horse than Jedastar but I still think this is way too big a test for her, whatever weight she carries. (9) Embrace Me looks a blowout chance at $35. She will relish a strong tempo on up front. (5) Teleplay isn't hopeless.
Value: (2) I Am Excited $12
Race 9 - G3 D C McKay Stakes 1100m (Market)
(9) Shamino is absolute airborne this preparation, with six wins from eight starts, and that includes a desperately unlucky run two starts back. Last start he beat Garner, who then came out and won his next start in a good race by more than 2L. This is an obvious step up in class against some Group horses, but he's done nothing to suggest he can't be super competitive once again at each way odds. (5) Behemoth returns from a spell here and he's never finished out of the top two from his three starts at the track and distance. Last time we saw him, he was beaten 1.8L in the Golden Eagle at Rosehill behind the likes of Kolding and Sunlight. (2) Home Of The Brave should relish these conditions and his first up run behind Gytrash and Sunlight was very good. He has three wins and two 2nds from seven starts when second up from a spell and that's Group 1 form that he brings to the race. He'll be very hard to run down. (4) Jungle Edge is a mudder and obviously gets conditions to suit him. Shamino on top and Home Of The Brave next best.
