Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, August 3rd.
It's a pretty stock-standard Winter meeting but it's a bit of a guessing game as to what the track will do, as we haven't raced here in a few months. The track should start as a Soft 5 and the rail is in the true position.
We are also running a FREE COMPETITION for today's racing at the Valley! Pick the winner of Race 8 at Moonee Valley and you'll go into the draw to win a Betfair Merchandise Pack! Click here for details on how to enter!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, August 3rd
Best Bet: Race 2 - (6) Taraayef (save on Absolute Flirt)
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (1) Highland Beat
Tough race to kick things off with as we have a favourite that's first up for six months and a second favourite that comes off two synthetic wins. I've gone with the favourite (2) Alburq on top despite the little query. His two-year-old form behind the likes of Yes Yes Yes in particular looks pretty strong and he returns to the races as a gelding today. He should be able to get a good little sit on the leaders an be able to pounce late. The value may well be the only unraced horse in the field (7) Sir Menaduke. I think most of the exposed form in the race isn't much to shout about so if this horse has any semblence of ability he might be able to run a race here. (1) Asateer is a horse that I think has some ability, but aforementioned, his two wins this prep have both been on synthetic ground, which for me is always a huge query when stepping up to metro grade, especially on a Saturday. (6) Condo's Express has placed in all three runs to date and should be rock-hard fit for this given he's raced over 1200m at every start and comes back to the 1000m here. He gets blinkers on for the first time and can go close at eachway odds.
Value: (7) Sir Menaduke $9.00
Five of the eight runners here are first up from a spell, which makes this a tricky betting race. We've got a number of these that have the ability to lead and on paper, it looks set to be run at a very good tempo. I think that will set it up for the likes of (6) Taraayef and (1) Absolute Flirt. These two fillies met back in April, which was Taraayef's debut. Absolute Flirt got the better of her on that occasion, but there's a 3kg weight swing today from that meeting. Taraayef carries 55kg today while Absolute Flirt will have to do it with 59kg. Following that race in April, Taraayef went on to score comfortably at her second start, while Absolute Flirt won in Listed grade before finishing 2nd in a Group 3. I think they're both talented and good enough to win this first up, especially if it's run as hard as I suspect it might be. Leaning towards Taraayef but will save on Absolute Flirt.
Save on (1) Absolute Flirt $4.20
One of the toughest races on the card. I think it might be worth backing (8) Catching Beams each way here. She won easily second up at Cranbourne before drifting badly and running accordingly last time out on heavy ground. She should appreciate getting back onto firmer ground. More importantly, she looks the obvious leader in a race lacking tempo, so she might be able to find the front and give be there for a long way. Her only previous start at this track she did exactly that and won. Carries 51kg after the claim so gets in well at the weights. (11) Kiss And Cry and (9) Broken Treaty come out of the same race at Bendigo. Broken Treaty held off Kiss And Cry on that occasion but Kiss And Cry can turn the tables here. She drops 9kg in the weights and gets a 4kg swing on Broken Treaty. (6) Paint The Town Two is racing well and should be hitting the line hard, while the blowout chance might be the Tasmanian mare (3) Shady Hustle. She had no luck at all first up and she won four of her six starts in her debut prep.
(8) Catching Beams E/W
$7.50
Another competitive race. (7) Kentucky Breeze is going to need a stack of luck from barrier 1 but if he gets it, he will be charging late. He's had four starts this prep - he pulled up with a throat issue in two of those, and the other two have been a good first up run behind Be Good Toya Mother and a last-start win over this distance. He's undefeated from two starts at 1600m now. He'll need things to go his way though. One horse that will make his own luck is (9) Elite Drake, who looks the obvious leader in the race and is the value at $10. He's racing well and with 52kg on his back around the Valley, he might be pretty tough to catch if he gets things his own way. (3) Alfarris is likely to be looking for much more ground than this but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him run a bold race fresh. (6) Travimyfriend is on the quick back-up after running 2nd last weekend. He's yet to win from eight starts at the distance but he's a deserved favourite in this field.
Value: (9) Elite Drake $10
(7) Kentucky Breeze
$5.50
This is a complete lottery. (7) Alsvin was racing in good form leading into last start and he was backed at longer odds for the race but sat wide without cover and pulled up with a throat issue after failing. He's been given three weeks off and can bounce back here with the good draw. (14) The Great Artiste will need the track to be in the good range if he's going to be competitive, but if we do get an upgrade by this stage I think he's a decent chance at $12. He comes into this third up from a spell and he's undefeated from two previous starts when third up. All four career wins have come on good ground so that's the key. (18) Vungers has had three starts back from more than a year off the track and should be about right to run a big race here. He could lead this field and all three starts at the Valley have been good. He's a good each way price at $8.50. Only playing very small here on the three mentioned.
Also backing (7) Alsvin & (18) Vungers
(14) The Great Artiste
$12
Sticking with the topweight (1) The Statesman here who should be right at his peak with three runs under the belt. First up he put in a good run, second up he had no luck at all caught wide the trip, and last start he finished 2nd behind what looks to be a pretty decent horse in Lord Belvedere. That was over 2500m so he's got a good grounding for this race, he'll just need a good ride from barrier 11. (4) Mirimar has two wins from his past three starts and steps up to Saturday grade now. He's another that will need a good ride as he's drawn one to the outside of The Statesman. (6) More Than Ever has won his past two in Adelaide and makes the trip back to Melbourne. No coincidence that he hit form when he was at the right fitness level, so he should be competitive with the good draw here. I'll lean to the Melbourne form over his Adelaide form though. (9) Diamond Grace could be the value at $17. She's had three runs back from a spell now and has gone well here in the past.
Going to give (3) Al Galayel one more chance today. If he doesn't show anything today then he's going back on the shelf for a while. Hes third, up to 2000m and returns to a track and distance he's undefeated at. Damian Lane jumps back on and on his best form, he'd probably be winning this. Needs a good ride but with double figures on offer I'll give him another chance. Last time he won here, he defeated (4) Masculino by half-a-length. Masculino is in good form and gets his chance again from a soft barrier, but I'd be a bit surprised if he led here with some others engaged, so he'll need a bit of luck too. Zahra goes on today, taking over from the apprentice, and he'll be somewhere in the finish. (7) Bedford has won his past two and they've been impressive performances but he steps up to a Saturday race with decent depth today. He hasn't been able to fire a shot from six starts in this class prior to today. (10) Twilight Run is the new kid on the block and produced a big win at Flemington last start. Third up and up to 2000m today, gets in on the minimum weight and certainly has more to come. No surprise to see him win again.
What a race this is! We have four horses between $4.20 and $5.00 and you can make a good case for each one of them. (7) Rox The Castle is first up and he's won five of his eight starts. He's got four wins from six starts at the distance and is undefeated here at the Valley. Drawn well, will be on speed and has the potential to blow them away at his best. He's an exciting horse. (9) Tavisan returned with a comfortable enough victory at Sandown first up. Steps up to Saturday grade now but he's more than capable of making that jump. His speedmap is a touch awkward and out of the four, he's probably the one I'm most willing to take on. (11) Usain Bowler was backed off the map first up at Flemington but he wasn't suited at the 1000m. He's much better off at 1200m second up. He recorded immense sectionals when flogging them second up down the straight last prep. The query is where he gets to in the run and if he has enough time to run them down, but on his best figures he'd round them up. (13) Age Of Chivalry has finished top two in five of his six starts and returns from a spell today. Last prep he had four runs for two wins and two 0.1L defeats, including one behind Mr Quickie. My query with him is whether he's possibly looking for 1400m and whether he'll be sharp enough first up, but he draws well and gets Lane on board and his form obviously looks very strong. Perhaps the forgotten horse in amongst all this is (1) Highland Beat. He's got top weight and draws poorly but he's flying this horse. He recorded the best final 800m in the defeat in Sydney last start and before that he won two on the bounce. He's got a decent record here at the Valley and clearly measures up to this class. He could be charging home over the top late to blouse them all at good odds.
Value: (1) Highland Beat $14
They could go like the clappers here, which could set it up for (4) Exceltara coming from the back of the field to charge over the top late. He won first up last preparation and although he's drawn barrier 16 here, it should allow him to find his feet early and sweep around them on the turn. That's exactly what he did when he won here at his only previous start at the track. The harder they go the better his chances are. (5) Moor Wanted will be one of the speed runners. He gets blinkers on and will push forward. He can bounce back from a disappointing effort last start, but his chances were gone after he missed the start slightly. (7) Condor Heroes returns as a gelding and bolted in in a recent trial. No surprise to see a blowout result here either. I'd be going wide in the quaddie.
