NRL Super Saturday begins in Newcastle this week, with a full set of 3 fixtures ahead. The Knights host the Storm to start proceedings and face an uphill battle attempting to hold out their stronger rival. Both have different goals given their standing on the ladder, but each will want to capture victory. This sets the stage for an exciting contest and Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action, with the aim of finding you a winner to add to your enjoyment.
Check out out our full preview and NRL betting tips for the clash below and if you’re keen to back in our tips, then simply join Betr via this link!
The Knights hosted the Raiders back in Round 17 and there was a genuine hope that they could cause an upset. Despite only losing 22-18, the reality was that they were rarely in the contest against a superior opponent who was far from their best. They tried hard with an 80% completion rate and an equal share of possession further supported by their 9.4m per carry and 5 line breaks. Unfortunately, missing 39 tackles and allowing 10.3m per carry was never going to help their cause. These are similar issues which are evident each week.
This is usually the time of year when the better teams lift to another level and the Storm did exactly that in their 26-20 victory over the Cowboys in Townsville. Given every excuse to perform poorly, the Storm overcame player absences and a 12-all HT scoreline to prevail. They dominated possession (54%) and had a superior completion rate (79%), allowing them to make 9.7m per carry and 682 PCM’s. They allowed just 6 line breaks and missed only 25 tackles for the match. It was another key victory lifting them to 2nd on the competition ladder.
The home team has won the past 4 games between these two sides and 8 of the past 10 matches. The Knights have a 54% record here and the Storm 45%.
The Knights have struggled to score points this season, only average 14ppg compared to the Storms 32ppg. They are closer defensively, allowing 19ppg with the Storm slightly ahead with 18ppg.
Despite 64 points scored in their last meeting, the average total points is low, sitting at 44.8 points. 3 games of the past 5 games have been decided by fewer than 44 points.
The Knights form this season suggests there is only one likely outcome in this contest and that is a victory to the Storm. Even with the uncertainty around their Origin stars playing, the Storm still welcome back Papenhuyzen to their team. The Knights are still without Ponga and appear to be hard pressed to score points against a superior defensive unit. There is no doubt that the Knights will try to ambush their opponents, but that will only take them so far. The decision then comes down to finding value in this contest. As referenced earlier, the scoring averages this season are a strong indication of how you should invest. With their totals being low, the Knights appear to need more than the line offered to be competitive in this match.
Leg 1 = Under 46.5 Points – see above for the reasoning behind this.
Leg 2 = Hughes to score – it was a quiet week by his standards last week but returning players to this team should free him up to have try scoring opportunities in play or looming up in support.
Leg 3 = Meaney to score – despite being shifted out of fullback, he is still a strong try scoring option. He has scored 4 tries in the past 4 weeks and if last week is any indication, he is a man in form.
SGM Odds = $15 at Dabble
Date: Saturday 12th July
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Time: 3pm (AEST)
Odds: Knights $3.90 vs Storm $1.26
Line: +10.5
Points: 46.5
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Scooby is our NRL guru with over ten years experience writing about rugby league with Before You Bet and previously at The Profits. His background is in playing and coaching but he's enjoyed the switch to share his knowledge through his articles, as well as sharing his thoughts on Twitter.
Scooby's strength is assessing the overall team - what they offer across the field in a match and how the ethos of a club contributes to their success. Momentum also has a major impact on sports, and Scooby likes to explore this, while underpinning his judgement against a solid basis of statistical analysis. When combined with the aforementioned points, it combines for a holistic approach towards betting on rugby league.
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