Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips special for the Grafton Carnival to be held over two days on Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th of July!
The Grafton Carnival has dished up some outstanding contests, highlighted by the Guineas and Ramornie Handicap on day one, and the Cup on day two. The track is currently rated a soft 5, with some rain forecast over the two days.
Day One Betting Tips - Wednesday
As you’d expect for any guineas, let alone a country rendition, it’s a very tough race. I’ll start with the prelude form, which was won by (10) Prince Of Troy who led all the way. I think the horse to follow from the race is (7) Group Think who was giving the winner 4kg and 3rd placed favourite (11) Hyperion Star 3kg yet still came from well back to just miss. The step up to 1600m is ideal and the So You Think gelding can win dropping 4kg. Outside of the prelude form (4) Fashchanel is a leading hope for Glen Boss & John O’Shea, who is going at 24% from his last 50 runners. This filly won easily first up at $1.75 before disappointing last start on heavy ground. Back to a slightly firmer surface should help. (3) Ready To Humble has to be respected, bringing solid highway form, as does stablemate (6) Rothenberg who was dominant last start and should appreciate the 1600m here. The booking of Collett suggests the horse is the stable’s top pick. (2) Foxborough is a filly conceding up to 4.5kg to male horses and has been up a long time but does have the best form. Incredibly tough race and although I doubt the prelude form is the ‘best’ lead up, Group Think is the horse to follow from that race and is worth a play at huge odds.
The sprint feature of the carnival is the Ramornie Handicap and it’s delivered an excellent field. They should go quite fast here with (2) Snitz leading the charge. The horse is flying, winning two straight to start the preparation before narrowly going down to group one talent Classique Legend. He does have to carry 59kg here but will be there for a long way. Second in that race was (8) Southern Lad but there’s no way I can tip him to win after his last start effort. I’ve been against the horse for its last two runs but (4) Haunted is racing very well. I profiled the horse as one that raced best fresh, but after a couple of poor runs his last two starts have been very good in quality Melbourne company. He drops 3kg for this, draws perfectly and a fast run 1200m on a soft track is an ideal set up. He should’ve won this race last year after being backed off the map and finding all sorts of trouble, so let’s hope he can go one better. (5) Hightail is coming off a Stradbroke run where he was beaten 3.6L in 12th and can definitely win on best form. (11) Mr Bellagio is airborne and handles all ground, while (9) Intuition can improve lengths second up and have last crack at big odds.
Day Two Betting Tips - Thursday
The premier 2yo contest of the carnival is the Springboard To Fame and I think the clear horse to beat is (5) Murungal. First up at Kembla Grange he ran 3rd beaten 1.5L in an outstanding form race behind Peltzer and Anders. If you’ve been following Sydney 2yo’s you’ll know that Peltzer form has proven the elite form for months. Murungal then went to another handy maiden, working early to find the lead and finishing 8th. Last start at this track he was caught wide but the win was soft, never looking like losing as the $2.50 favourite. He draws to sit just off the leaders and repeat the dose. The danger is (8) Ashra Jahre who sat three wide no cover as the $1.40 favourite at Nowra but kept coming to get up. She’s a big striding filly that looks well suited up to 1200m. There’s a host of other chances but I’m banking on the Peltzer form stacking up again with Murungal.
Not a feature but a handy little class 6. The deserved favourite is (2) Two Big Fari who graduated from maiden, to BM58, to a country championship final in the space of one preparation. He narrowly went down in that final after beating Bobbing in the Muswellbrook wild card. He comes here fresh and draws wide but if he gets across easily he’ll go close. I do think the play in the race that can upset the favourite is (3) Up Trumpz who has had a little freshen up after a 5th at Randwick after a torrid run in transit sitting four wide on speed. His two runs before that were very good, finishing 3L off Wandabaa and Spaceboy, and a 2.3L 2nd to the group class Dirty Work. Next best is (14) Snow Valley who has raced in similar company but won’t want a wet track. The only reason you’re getting $6.5 for Up Trumpz is the wide barrier, but with a decent run and the favourite potentially vulnerable first up, I’m happy to back him to win.
Race 7 - Grafton Cup (Market)
The feature of the carnival is the Grafton Cup over 2350m and I’m very keen on the topweight (1) Sixties Groove. He’s 4th up here and it’s at this stage of the preparation where he really hits his straps. His last two 4th up runs read a 3L demolition as the $1.65 favourite at Flemington, and a group 2 Brisbane Cup win coming from near last at $3.80. He’s been building towards a win and was very good last start, getting shuffled back to near last and encountering a bit of traffic before letting rip to finish 2nd. The important thing for me is he showed he can handle wet ground, and I doubt he sees worse than the soft 7 he encountered last start. The winner of that race was (4) Frankley Awesome who has obvious claims. She did get a peach of a ride there from barrier one, hunting up the fence before peeling out in the straight and won’t get that scenario from the carpark here. (2) Carzoff has claims, finishing 3rd in that race. The extra 350m suits him. I was very keen to follow Sixties Groove 4th up off his last run and see no reason to jump off here. He’s far and away my best bet of the carnival at $4.20.
1000m dash for the Sir James Kirby Quality, and it does look a two horse race on paper. The favourite is (1) Plague Stone and it’s hard to get a read on where he’s at. He had excuses at two Melbourne starts last preparation but was beaten a long way in both. His previous form would be too good here, and the recent trial was solid winning under a hold, but he’s not the horse I could take $2.20 about, especially when he concedes 6kg to (4) All Cylinders. This 3yo returns off three trials, and the last one especially was outstanding, leading throughout under a hold. This gelding took on some very hot races early on, with narrow finishes behind Tenley, Standout and Pandemic. Over the 1000m here expect Glen Boss to be aggressive from the inside barrier and run them off their feet.
