Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, May 4th.
The nine-race card looks a touch tricky, with some big fields and open markets, but there looks to be a few good betting races too. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 11m.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 - (1) Fidelia
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (3) Pacodali
RACE 1 - 2YO Fillies Plate 1100m
(1) Maqsad won on debut at Seymour and backed that up with a good effort in Listed company in Adelaide last start. The horse that beat her is Li'l Kontra, who has some very solid form on the board. I think that's a good formline to bring into this race and Maqsad should probably lead the field on the inside here. With even luck, she should take plenty of running down. (2) Moldova was a dominant winner at big odds on debut at Bendigo, where she beat a number of her rivals that she meets again today. She led all the way to win by 2.75L so expect her to be right up on the pace again from barrier 11. It will be interesting to see if she sticks to the outside or comes across with the main group. (10) Oasis Girl and (11) Parmie are both on debut from the Ellerton & Zahra stable, who train locally at the track. Watch betting with those two. Worth noting (6) Exquisite Beauty started the $1.95 favourite when beaten by Moldova on debut. She's a $10 chance today. (7) Cardice has been $41 into $21 in early betting.
RACE 2 - BM 78 Handicap 1620m
Most interested in the two Waller runners here. (13) Phoneme goes on top after a sound return over 1440m first up at Caulfield, where he was beaten 2.25L by the very talented Tarwin. I think that's a hot formline and he should take plenty of benefit fitness-wise from that run. He's had nine career starts overall and the three times he's failed have all been in Sydney, so it might just be a case of him going much better the Melbourne way of going. He won at Flemington last preparation and gets a good draw with barrier 7 here. Think he'll take some beating at $5.50. (2) Sir Pippin has won both starts this prep, with a first up win at Yarra Valley backed up by a win over the mile at Caulfield last start. The slight query for me is him staying at 1600m as it looks as if he'll improve as he continues to get over more ground. Drawn wide and likely to get a long way back but he's a horse on the up with four wins from 10 career starts. (18) Persian Empire gains a run and looks a good hope at double figure odds. He's returned in good form this prep, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. His two wins have been at Pakenham so he'd need to improve again but he could probably do so without surprising. (11) Royal Thunder has won his past two and despite stepping up in grade, probably shouldn't be $26. (3) Dr Drill was very good on Australian debut and has obvious claims but draws poorly, while I couldn't be happier to take on (5) Gold Mag here, who has only ever won on wet ground and comes off a Heavy 8 victory in an average Sydney race last start. He'll get much firmer ground here which I don't think suits him at all.
RACE 3 - 3YO Fillies BM78 Handicap 1410m
(1) Fidelia steps up from BM64 to BM78 grade here but her win last start suggests she can handle this step up in grade. Her two runs back from a spell have been terrific and the way she ran through the line at Sandown last start suggests the step up in trip will be suitable. She's the one to beat. (7) Neighbourhood backed up a strong trial to win well on debut at Cranbourne. This is a sharp step up in grade from maiden to BM78 company but she carries just 52.5kg and can run well. (8) Fabric ran 3rd behind Fidelia last start, beaten 0.85L, but she was held up from the 400m-200m and didn't have a lot of room late either. Prior to that she won first up at Geelong. Gets a small weight swing on Fidelia today and has serious claims at each way odds. Will need luck from barrier 1 though. (12) Part Time Lover was a dominant winner at Geelong last start, coasting home by 6L. She looks to be improving with every start and can run well at double figure odds.
RACE 4 - Handicap 1400m
Tricky race. I backed (1) Fastnet Tempest last start and it could be worth sticking with him for one more start here. He ran 3rd behind Streets Of Avalon and Manolo Blahniq but he didn't have the clearest passage in the straight. I expected him to run well on the day as he always tends to when third up from a spell, and he's also shown he can run well when fourth up, just as he did when finishing 2nd in the Sale Cup last prep. He gets Blaike McDougall replacing Craig Williams today, which is a negative, but he's drawn well and finds a race where there is likely to be a very good tempo. I'll give him one more chance at each way odds. (10) Call It A Day comes here on the quick back-up after running 3rd last weekend. She was only beaten a head and she won the start prior to that, so she comes here at the peak of her powers. She carries just 51kg today so from barrier 1 there's little doubt they'll take her straight to the front and try to run them off their legs. She's probably better suited to Caulfield rather than the long Flemington straight though. (6) Another Dollar was well-backed first up last prep when beaten a length by Best Of Days, which is certainly good form. She's first up again here from a 33-week spell. Watch the market with her - she could win this if they've got her ready.
(1) Fastnet Tempest E/W
$6.50
RACE 5 - Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2000m
(1) Grinzinger Star is flying and despite rising 4kg in the weights from his last-start victory, he looks very well placed to win again. He carries at least 3kg more than any other runner in the race, but I really couldn't find anything that stood out to beat him. Drawn well in barrier 5 and if he runs up to his past couple of starts, he will probably win again. (6) Zouy's Comet could be a value chance at $26. She was a dominant winner at Cranbourne first up and although she was beaten 4.35L in 11th last start, her run was worth forgiving. She was just starting to get going before being held up for the final 100m of the race. She's drawn poorly in barrier 19 here but she's worth including in exotics. (4) Analytica, (10) Ridgewood Drive, (12) Tavirun and (14) Vamanoz are all rough chances.
Value: (6) Zouy's Comet $26
(1) Grinzinger Star
$2.35
RACE 6 - Super VOBIS 3Y) Handicap 1200m
Pretty keen to stick with (2) Halvorsen here, who was very impressive in winning at Caulfield last week. He settled back in the field and got a touch lucky getting a run but once he got clear air, he powered home over the top of them to win by 2L. He comes into today on the quick back-up third up from a spell and he won easily third up last preparation at the Valley. He's never run down the Flemington straight before, which is the big query, but I'll be backing him to win anyway. (4) Lady Pluck has won three on the trot, scrambling home to win at Caulfield last start. This stable always has to be respected when they bring their horses to Melbourne. Lady Pluck's only start down the Flemington straight resulted in a 3rd placing behind Smart Melody, so she's got experience on her side. (5) Poised To Strike was a hugely impressive winner at his only start down the Flemington straight. He gets a significant weight swing on (7) Morrissy who defeated him last start. I think the big value in the race is (9) Lady Vega at $21. She returned with a soft win first up at Bendigo, making it two wins from three career starts. Her failure was when she pulled up coughing post-race. I think this is a pretty smart filly and I expect her to run well at big odds here. (11) Jay Jay D'ar is another to include in numbers.
RACE 7 - Handicap 2600m
Looks another win for (3) Steel Prince here, who belted a few of these last start when he salutd by 3.75L over the 2400m at Caulfield. He only rises 1.5kg in the weights from that win and if he reproduces that he'll win again. He's now finished in the top two at his last nine straight starts, with three wins from three starts this prep. (1) Surprise Baby has won four of his six starts and was a last-start winner of the Group 2 Adelaide Cup. He resumes from a seven-week let-up here with 60kg on his back. He can go well but probably isn't best suited under the conditions.
RACE 8 - Handicap 1800m
Interested in (3) Pacodali each way at $7.50. He was sound first up from a spell when beaten just over 2.5L at Caulfield. He steps up from 1600m to 1800m today and he won over this distance at the exact same stage of his last preparation. His overall second up record is five starts for two wins and two 2nds so he always tends to improve off that first run. He's undefeated at Flemington with two wins from as many starts, gets a useful 3kg claim and should be hitting the line hard. (4) Call Me Handsome will put himself right up on speed. He was only beaten about a head last start and he drops in the weights today with the claim. Mantastic was just given too much to do last start. From barrier 15 he's going to get a long way back again but he'll be working home well late. (10) Spunlago was very heavily backed on ANZAC Day and was beaten a nose ver 1710m here. On that effort, he has to rate a huge chance again given he drops even further in the weights.
RACE 9 - BM84 Handicap 1200m
Think there's only four chances here to close out the day. (2) Milwaukee is third up today after 11 months off the track, so he should be nearing peak fitness. He's undefeated from two previous runs at this track and distance and he's won third up before too. The 3kg claim brings him down to a winnable weight. (8) Spirit Of Aquada deserves to be favourite, having won first up and been beaten a nose in his past two starts. The horse looks to be flying and only has to repeat those efforts to go very close once again. (12) Indian Thunder is having a resurgence in form with trainer Paul Preusker. He ran 2nd to Mandela Effect two starts back before winning at Terang last time out. He can measure up. (13) Nariko is first up from a spell today. She had eight starts last prep and placed in seven of them, with three wins included. She's finished in the top two in four of her five starts at this distance and has the potential to give this a good shake fresh. I'll likely back Spirit Of Aquada ($3.50) and Milwaukee($6.50) with a saver on Nariko ($11).
Value: (2) Milwaukee $6.50
(8) Spirit Of Aquada
$3.50
