Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, December 15th.
We’ve got nine races on a Soft 5 track with the rail out 10m. The weather predicted is warm with a possibility of some rain. I’d suggest the track would probably be around the Good 4 range for the most part of the card.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Declares War
Best Value Bet: Race 8 Californiagrandcru
RACE 1
2YO race down the 1100m straight to open the card, which are lotteries in themselves. The favourite Yes Yes Yes is from the Darren Weir camp and comes into this off a 2nd placing at Moonee Valley behind the hugely promising Brooklyn Hustle, who looks an early contender for the Blue Diamond. Yes Yes Yes finished his race off well on that occasion, which probably means he’s a deserved favourite today, but he’s short enough at the $3.10 quote given it’s his first time down the straight and he meets a few on debut. Movie Role jumped out nicely at Werribee, showing good speed to lead all the way. She gets Craig Williams on for race day which is a strong lead and it’s about the right time of year for this stable to start rolling out their good juveniles. Her stablemate Favourite Things was behind Brooklyn Hustle and Yes Yes Yes at the Valley. She was only fair but she gets the blinkers applied today instead of the winkers and the wide draw should suit. I’d be keeping a close eye on her and the market leading up to the race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her start much shorter than the $11 currently on offer, so she could be a bit of value at that price.
RACE 2
Wide-open race. Plenty of these come off maiden wins and are open to plenty of improvement, but none of those really returned figures that jump off the page. I’ll stick with the slightly more experienced Social Spin who resumed with a fair effort first up at Moonee Valley over 1200m. He should be better suited second up today and up to 1400m with Ethan Brown taking a useful 1.5kg off. There looks a decent enough speed to set it up for him coming from back in the field. Born Bad hasn’t had much luck at all in his three starts. He’s managed to win one of those but the other two were complete forgive runs. Big jockey change today and a good draw means he’s a decent each way chance at $17.
RACE 3
With two runs under the belt, it’s time for Masculino to stand up and perform. He started to hit his straps at this point last preparation and he gets in well after the 3kg claim for King today. I think he’s short enough at $3.10 but if he does rediscover that form from last prep, he would put these away. Scherzoso was smoked by Mahamedeis last start but that horse is on the rise and is flying. Scherzoso has a good record at Flemington and draws well so expect another good run from him. Penny To Sell actually beat him a couple of starts ago and is going very well herself. Her poor record at Flemington is the concern.
RACE 4
This is a complete lottery. There’s five I’ll mention here and a few of those are complete blowout chances. The most blowout of them all is Delta D’Or at $101, but I’ll be having something small on at that price. His form seems completely hopeless and five of his six career wins have been in the Northern Territory, but his first up run back in Melbourne this time in was luckless when he went to the line untested at Moonee Valley. He wasn’t much good second up at Sandown but if you look at his first and second up record, you’ll notice he’s never placed from nine attempts. His third up record is actually reasonable though, with a win and a 2nd from three starts. He’s also got a fairly decent record at this distance. Drawn barrier 1 which isn’t much use down the straight but I could see him improving sharply third up and at that quote he’s worth a dollar. Heavenward is another blowout chance. He’s got a good first up record and a good record at the distance and he’s likely to find the right part of the straight from barrier 17. Cash Affair won first up at Bendigo, which is slightly surprising for a Weir runner. She should naturally improve as his runners tend to do. She’s possibly in the wrong part of the track but at least she has a bit of upside, unlike many in this field. Fallen Empire was good first up from a lengthy spell and draws well out wide, while Weapon bolted in first up last prep and has the talent required to win this. He was backed in from $2.60 to even money on that occasion so watch to see if the support comes for him once again. This is the easiest races he’s contested in some time. I’ll have something on Weapon, Heavenward and Delta D’Or.
Value: Heavenward $23 / Delta D'Or $101
RACE 5
Three I’m mainly keen on. Chamois Road is as honest as they come and just continues to turn up and run well. With that said, it seems every time I try and back him (normally each way) he misses out on the placings! He does a very good each way chance again today on the back of a 3rd placing in group 3 company in Sydney. Ulmann gets the blinkers back on for the first time this prep. He hasn’t won in a while but Weir often keeps the blinkers up his sleeve and when he does use them, they generally work. He really gets his chance from barrier 1 today. Wenner could find the lead and be able to dictate this. Third up, he’s one at a longer price that could run a big race. I’ll give Ulmann the nod again today with the gear change but save on the other two.
RACE 6
Competitive little race but you had to be taken by the win of Declares War last Friday night at Moonee Valley when he was absolutely slaughtered but picked himself up and charged home over the top of them. It was a freakish effort given the lack of momentum he had and it stamped him as a very progressive horse. The big spaces of Flemington should suit this horse down to the ground and he looks a great chance of winning again. Five Kingdom was another impressive winner to come out of a Moonee Valley race and he’s drawn to get a sweet run from barrier 2. Gets a nice weight relief with King’s claim and he looks to be looking for the extra trip. Mr Monaco, Nothin’ Lecia High and Naivasha are all roughies to include.
RACE 7
Good race but hard to guess which Weir runner is tuned up for this. He has three engaged, one of which is race fit and two which are first up. Thermal Current is the one that’s rock-hard fit and racing very consistently. Interestingly, Craig Williams jumps off him to ride Native Soldier, who is one of the two returning from a spell. He started $6 in the Caulfield Guineas and now returns over the sprint trip. He’s drawn in the right part of the track, unlike Whispering Brook, who draws barrier 2 for her first run back from a spell. She’s got a great first up record with three wins and a 2nd from five starts, so it would be no surprise to see her overcome the draw to win with Mark Zahra a notable booking. Invincible Al is another that continues to show up and run well. He’s been flashing home (as he tends to do) and has a good record down the Flemington straight. Nathan Punch’s sole win on the horse was down the straight so hopefully he can hang on and steer him well. He’s always one I have to have something on and at $6 I’ll have something on again today.
Value: Invincible Al $6.00
RACE 8
Staying race over the 2500m here and it’s hard to get excited over these. Californiagrandcru looks a touch over the odds at $12. He saluted at Sandown on the Lakeside course last start when stepped up to 2400m and the extra trip doesn’t look as if it will be any worry. He actually beat Chapal on that occasion, yet Chapal is about half his price today. Granted, Chapal was stepping up from 1800m to 2400m on that occasion and has since come out and won over 2400m, but that’s just another boost to Californiagrandcru’s form. Captain Rhett continues to run well and steps back up in trip today. The form out of his last start has proved to be pretty strong. Earth Angel only has the one career win to her name but she looks like she needs every bit of this 2500m. Of course, any of the Weir runners could win this and there’s three of them.
Californiagrandcru E/W
$12.00
RACE 9
Tough way to finish off too. Essence Of Terror is going really well this prep and with the 3kg claim today she gets a 6.5kg weight swing on Fill The Flute from the Valley last start. With the right run she can win. Fill The Flute gets synthetic hoof filler on today which is some query but she has won four from four this prep so has obvious claims once again. Chatuchak looks a chance at double figure odds. I’d prefer her drawn out but Williams takes the ride, she’s got a good second up record and her only start down the straight was a narrow 2nd placing. Hay Now is huge odds and can be included. She reeled off some good sectionals first up and we’ll have to keep an eye on whether Cash Affair franks that form in Race 4. Hay Now has a good second up record and draws well in barrier 10. At $41 she’s the blowout. Twitchy Frank and I Am Queen both come off dominant first up wins, with Rox The Castle franking the form of the latter with a dominant win at the Valley last week.
