Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Monday, October 5th.
It's a public holiday meeting at Canterbury in Sydney on Monday, with an eight-race card consisting of a number of small fields. Tim Geers has studied the form for every race and offered his preview and betting tips below!
Canterbury Racing Tips: Monday, October 5th
Best Bet: Race 4 – (4) Highmaster
Next Best: Race 8 - (14) Written Beauty
Best Value: Race 7 – (1) Aim Smart / (11) Ruthless Agent
(2) Much Much Better should be able to jump and find the front here. He did so last start and was only run down late by Jack The Lad. The query is the form out of that race, as Seleque ran 3rd and then came out and ran a shocker at Randwick. (3) Namazu was good first up at Newcastle, warming up nicely late to be beaten 0.2L. Will need the track to allow horses to be running on. (1) Yangtze Rapids was pretty plain last start as the even money favourite in that same race at Newcastle. He might be looking for this step up in distance now and barrier 1 is always a good thing at Canterbury.
(2) Much Much Better
The track pattern will be crucial here. There looks to be no shortage of speed in this race so expect it to be run at a decent clip despite the low numbers. That should set it up nicely for (1) Lord Olympus but he will need the track to allow horses to run on, because there’s every chance he settles last. He won his first two and ran well in defeat at Hawkesbury last start, so if he brings his form here he should be hard to hold out. (10) Wholesome Delight could be the value at around $6.50. She kicked off her career with a solid win at Canberra, and while this is a much tougher race, she should come across from barrier 6 to take up the lead. She’ll be tough to get past.
Sticking with (5) Exotic Ruby here, who has improved with every run this prep and comes off a win at Wyong over 1300m. She’s drawn a bit off the fence in the small field but hopefully they can find a handy enough position and hopefully the fence isn’t on fire. (2) Invinciano comes off a good win on the Kensington track last week so is on the five-day back up. That looks the best form line but she does carry an extra 4kg today. I do think she is quite clearly the biggest danger to Exotic Ruby though.
Pretty keen on (4) Highmaster here for John Thompson and Nash Rawiller. He ran 2nd to Bucharest first up, who has since been racing in town, and then he came out and won last start at Kembla Grange. He comes to town now and jumps from 1500m to 1900m, but he gets a sweet run in behind the leaders from barrier 1. John Thompson has a terrific record at Canterbury – he operates at about 32% here – and Nash Rawiller is his main jockey. One of his biggest rivals according to the market is (1) Cisco Bay who gets the blinkers back on, but I just rule a line through him on good ground. He is bursting to in another race and as soon as he finds a wet track he will, but he just can’t go as good on the firmer ground. He’s had 16 tries now for zero wins on good tracks, so at $3.60 you just have to take him on. I think the value in the race is (8) Liam’s The Boss who ran well in defeat first up at Kembla, where he was also caught wide for the first 600m of the race. He can go well at $9.00.
Value: (8) Liam's The Boss $9.00
This race is full of complete myths. Barrier 1 makes (6) Love Shack Baby an interesting prospect third up from a spell with the senior rider going on. It was a big run first up on the Kensington track but he was disappointing last start, albeit he was carried wide on the track 700m from home, which is a hard thing to do at Canterbury. Barrier 1 makes it much easier for him, the biggest query is the fact he hasn’t won since August last year. (7) Savigne is another pretender but he finds a very winnable race today. Thomas Stockdale is booked to ride which is an interesting move from Waller. Barrier 5 means he’ll be back towards the end of the field and will need to come down the middle, which isn’t ideal at Canterbury. But he does like it here, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts at the track, and he drops out of Saturday grade into a much easier race. Backing Savigne, saving on Love Shack Baby.
(7) The Bopper returns from a spell today having won two two-year-old races in very good style back in April/May. He’s trialled three times leading into his first run back today and has looked terrific, and I’m sure he’s destined for much better races than this. The big question is whether you take $1.90 about a horse that’s won two two-year-old races on the provincial circuit, especially when Kris Lees has about a 5% strike rate here at Canterbury. I think he's the most likely winner but I can’t back him at that price. I think (3) Deference is the way I’d go if betting. Was very heavily backed but raced four-wide the trip first up over 1000m at Warwick Farm last prep. Drawn barrier 2 for a good run today, especially if the track is favouring the inside, and Godolphin runners normally perform well here. I’d rather take $3.60 about him then $1.90 or shorter for the favourite.
(5) Best Stone is 3/3 at this track and distance and drops back from a Group 3 into a BM78 on a Monday. This is the easiest race she’s contested since she won a few starts back here and with even luck from the outside gate, she should be the one to beat. (1) Aim Smart has a terrific first up record with three wins and a 2nd from four starts. He makes his Australian debut here and draws well so include him at double figure odds. The knockout hope is (11) Ruthless Agent second up from the inside gate. Include at $31.
Value: (1) Aim Smart $21 & (11) Ruthless Agent $31
The barrier draws are the deciding factor in the last for me. (7) Marboosha comes up with barrier 8 meaning she’s either going to be back and/or wide, which is never ideal at Canterbury. I was keen on her last week but she was scratched and they come here instead. She won her first two starts and then bumped into Macroura. Has trialled well and will run well but the barrier draw means I’m in the corner of (14) Written Beauty, who draws the inside gate, always a plus here at Canterbury. She bolted in by 6L on the Gold Coast last time we saw her and has now been transferred to the Hawkes yard in Sydney. She won her only trial and comes straight to the races, where she looks very hard to beat with any luck from the gate.
(14) Written Beauty