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Broncos at Bills Prediction & Tips: NFL Week 10 2023-24

November 13th 2023, 4:09pm, By: Ben Bridge

NFL Betting Tips

Another Bills prime time game, with the Bills hosting the Broncos to round out week 10. The Broncos are fresh off the bye, and on a two-game winning streak, so it won’t be plain sailing for the heavily favoured Bills here.

Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!

Bet Right

NFL Week 10 Preview & Betting Tips

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Highmark Stadium, Tuesday 14th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)

Last Week

The Bills were Prime Time again last week, taking on the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. The Bengals won quite easily 24-18, with more questions than answers regarding the Bills moving forward. The Bills had two turnovers, with a Josh Allen pick and Dalton Kincaid fumble, which only led to 3 Bengals points, so can’t be held to blame for the loss. Allen threw for 258 yards and a touchdown, whilst also rushing for 44 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid (81) and Diggs (86) were the leading receivers for the Bills.

The Broncos are off the bye, with their last game being a 24-9 victory over the Chiefs in week 8. I can’t say I gave the Broncos any sort of upgrade after this game, with the Chiefs performance looking very much like a team conceding a win whilst looking ahead to a massive game with the Dolphins in week 9. The Chiefs turned the ball over 5 times, which is unheard of, and I don’t give the Broncos huge amounts of credit for this. Wilson threw for only 114 yards, but had 3 touchdowns, with the Chiefs outgaining the Broncos 275-240 during the game.

Injury Report

Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox / Zach Davidson (TE) – OUT

Tommy Doyle (OT) – OUT

Tre White / Kaiir Elam / Christian Benford (CB) – OUT

Matt Milano (OLB) – OUT

Damien Harris (RB) – OUT

Micah Hyde (SS) – OUT

Terrel Bernard (LB) – Questionable

Denver Broncos

Jonas Griffith (LB) – OUT

Tim Patrick / Jalen Virgil / Brandon Johnson (WR) – OUT

Caden Sterns (SAF) – OUT

Greg Dulcich (TE) – OUT

K’Waun Williams (DB) – OUT

Match Preview

These teams last met back in 2020, with the Bills destroying the Broncos 48-19 on the road. Josh Allen threw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst rushing for 33 yards and another 2 touchdowns. Stefon Diggs also had a monster game, catching 11 balls for 147 yards. However, with a new coach and quarterback at the Broncos, I’ll take nothing from this result.

The lookahead for this contest was Bills -9, before the loss the Bengals dropped the Bills to a 5-4 record, and currently out of the playoff picture. The number re-opened Bills -7.5, and money has slowly continued to come in on the Broncos, with the number now a very juiced 7.5, which will likely close at 7. I make a fair number in this contest Bills -6.5/7, after I finally gave in and downgraded the Bills last week. Whilst you can still catch the 7.5 start with the Broncos, that’s definitely the side I would lean towards, otherwise I don’t see 7 being a play.

The total was 46 on the lookahead, before re-opening 45.5. This has been bet up through the week, with the current total sitting at 46.5. I’m definitely siding with the under in this game, with the Broncos defence appearing to have improved markedly since earlier in the season. With a week off to prepare for this Bills offense, I like the Broncos to keep things somewhat tight here. At the same time, whilst I’m not enamoured with the Bills defence, I don’t see the Broncos offense shredding them here. Something like a 24-17 type game is something I can see happening here.

Under 46.5 Points

$1.91 (1.5 Units)

 

Based in Newcastle, Ben earns a living working for the NSW Government, but his real passion lies in sports and sports betting. Ben has spent years developing sports betting models for various sports and has been using these models for the past few years, creating articles for Before You Bet across NRL, NFL, Formula 1, and fantasy sports contests on Draftstars.

A lifelong Penrith Panthers fan, Ben has finally seen some rewards for his years of loyal support, with the Panthers chasing a fourth straight NRL Premiership in 2024.

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