Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the standalone Bendigo meeting on Saturday, April 7th.
We have a nine-race card featuring the Listed Golden Mile and Listed Bendigo Guineas. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the True position. Tune into Episode 29 of the Before You Bet Podcast below to hear Tim's preview of the four Group 1's on Day 1 of The Championships! You can also view our Randwick Preview & Tips here!
BENDIGO RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #2 French Emotion
Best Value: Race 4 #3 Lyuba
RACE 1
Staying race to kick things off here. I’m with the favourite (2) Harrison who has his third run in Australia here. He improved significantly from his first up run to his second up run, with the step up to 2400m obviously aiding him. He’ll be even better off with that run under his belt and with 54kg again today he’ll be hard to run down. Slight concern over the firm track. (3) Sin To Win gets up to a distance he’s won at, and could be his best distance this prep. The value could be his stablemate (6) Charlevoix who is third up and up to 2400m here. (5) Brimham Rocks has never won below 2350m so his first up run last start was a good effort considering. Up in trip will suit him and he will go close. (1) Gallic Chieftain gets the blinkers back on today but has to carry 4kg more than every other horse.
TIP: (2) Harrison
RACE 2
There’s plenty of questions here. (2) Superhard returns from a spell here and if he repeats what he showed in his debut campaign he’ll be hard to beat here. But he’s been gelded in his time off and has had two recent trials leading into this, neither of which were particularly inspiring. He was also previously under the care of Robert Smerdon, so were his performances enhanced by raceday treatment? All that makes me very hesitant to bet here but $4 is a decent price because if he’s right then he’s a great chance. (1) Holy Blade was heavily backed last start and produced a terrific win, storming home from the back of the field at Sandown. He’ll be back again from the wide barrier but he has the turn of foot required to storm over the top again. (3) Villla Sarchi beat the same horse Holy Blade did when he won first up at Sandown – his time was slightly slower than Holy Blade’s over the same track and distance, albeit on different days. (5) Watchdog was dominant first up at Pakenham. His form from last preparation is very good, with defeats at the hands of Royal Symphony and River Jewel. The query here is the drop back from 1200m to 1000m. (12) Redcore broke its maiden over 1100m here first up and has always had ability. Could go on with it this prep?
TIP: (2) Superhard
RACE 3
This is a complete lottery with so many debutants and unseen horses in the field. I’ll keep it to one I’m interested in. (12) Sizzelme debuted in a good race at Caulfield behind Ollivander and didn’t have much go right but hit the line well. Was put away for a spell straight away and resumes here. Draws barrier 1 and should get its chance at Bendigo, which is typically a track that allows horses every chance. $9 appeals in a wide open race.
TIP: (12) Sizzelme EW
RACE 4
Another race with plenty of questions as we have an ex-Smerdon horse that’s well performed as the favourite. (7) Property showed plenty as a juvenile, winning at Group 3 level in Sydney after running 5th in the Blue Diamond. He didn’t come up last prep and that makes me sceptical here, enough so that I won’t be taking $2.60. (3) Lyuba has a great fresh record with two wins and a 2nd from three first up runs, and she’d had five top-two finishes from six starts at the distance. From the inside gate she’ll be right on pace and should be there a long way. Would much rather take $7 each way about her. (11) Toy Boy also has a good fresh record and won a trial leading into this. He’s a capable type. (8) Ashlor was given no hope first up and is much better suited here, while (4) Yesterday’s Songs could be the surprise packet.
TIP: (3) Lyuba EW
RACE 5
Super competitive race. (3) Blue Tycoon ran 3rd last start behind Milwaukee and Handsome Thief, who then came out and ran the quinella again last weekend. That form is good and his wins in Adelaide prior were very solid. He carries weight again here but looks a good chance of at least running a place again at $7.50. (12) Haski is flying and so is the stable. He went very close again last start after being held up on the rail at the Valley. Looks to get a good run from the barrier here and there’s no reason he can’t run well again at $6. (11) Galaxy Raider ran enormous first up but looks awfully short in the market here. He’s drawn barrier 19 and has won just two races from 19 starts. He’s a bit of a tease, and while I admit to being impressed by his first up run, I can’t take that price all things considered. (19) Maximus won in great style at the Valley last start and will be once again hitting the line hard.
TIP: (3) Blue Tycoon / (12) Haski
RACE 6
Very keen to bet here. (2) French Emotion looks one of the best bets of the day. If she produced anything near her best here she’d win. She ran 2nd to Quilista first up, and Quilista then went to Sydney and won. Her first up run was also down the Flemington straight over 1200m which doesn’t suit her. She’s much better suited here and she’s very well in at the weights. (13) Near Queue is way over the odds at $26. She’s absolutely flying and bolted in by 3L at this track just two starts ago. Draws well and I expect her to run a huge race here at the big odds, despite dropping back in trip. (10) Jester Halo is much better back to Open mares grade rather than the strong races she’s been competing in lately. The form from her last start will prove strong and it won’t surprise me if she returns to the winner’s stall here.
TIP: (2) French Emotion / (13) Near Queue EW
RACE 7
This is an absolute lottery. Anything could win this. The inclusion of the Lloyd Williams runner (8) Midterm is notable. He was due to run last week but was scratched on race morning due to the farrier spiking his foot with a nail. That could well be the case, but Lloyd could also be telling porkies. He did mention last week that the horse could run at this meeting so it’s not surprising to see him line up, but it is slightly surprising to see him at the mile. Regardless, Lloyd loves a winner at this meeting and this horse has a good fresh record, so if he’s taken no ill-effect from that incident then he could be very competitive in this. (19) Tradesman needs three scratchings to get a run here but if he does he could give this a good shake. He’s drawn horribly in barrier 19 but he’s shown he’s got the ability from his time in the West. His first up run was a nice hit-out. (9) Nozomi has a horrible second up record but his run wasn’t all that bad considering he found traffic in the straight. His third up record is good and drawing wide probably isn’t the worst thing for him. He can bounce back. (1) Sovereign Nation, (3) Amovatio and (6) Kiwia all chances.
TIP: (8) Midterm / (9) Nozomi EW
RACE 8
(5) Holbein got things all his own way at Flemington last start, which flattered his performance, but he probably would have won either way. His run two starts back was enormous, and his win last start just proved that he’s really come back a good horse this prep. He’ll roll forward from barrier 11 and he’ll take some catching once again. (6) Mahamedeis has been gelded since we saw him last. He’s never finished outside the top two, and his win at Flemington has turned out to be handy form. He trialled nicely leading into this, alongside the likes of Widgee Turf, who won last weekend. If he gets a decent trip from the barrier, I expect him to run well at double figure odds. (16) So Far Sokool was luckless first up but hit the line very well. If he had a stronger jockey booked to ride I’d be a bit keener to back him but Nikita Beriman from a wide barrier concerns me. (14) Forsure ran well behind Holbein last start in a race that was physically impossible for him to win the way it was run.
TIP: (5) Holbein / (6) Mahamedeis EW
RACE 9
Very keen to bet here. I’ll be taking on (5) King’s Command. The horse looks to be flying but his last win was flattered by the track pattern of the day. It was a terrific ride that won the race, mixed with a Flemington monorail that made it impossible to make ground out wide. I think (6) Leodoro can run a big race here, stepping up to 1400m. He’s come back into form in recent starts and the wide barrier should suit him here, as he’ll get clear air down the outside instead of weaving through traffic. I’m also very keen to back (16) My Paisann, who is a horse I’ve got a lot of time for and has been good to me in the past. He was given no hope first up when trapped three-wide without cover in a field of eight runners. Second up and up to 1400m is ideal, and he carries just 51kg after the claim. The jockey booking isn’t terrific but I’ll take the $9 anyway. (10) Land Of Plenty expected to improve sharply at his second start for Weir.
TIP: (6) Leodoro EW / (16) My Paisann EW
QUADDIE
2, 4, 10, 13
1, 3, 6, 8, 9
5, 6, 14, 16
5, 6, 10, 16
$100 = 39%
