The Ashes moves to the city of churches as England look to keep the series alive after going down 2-0. Australia have their foot on the throat of England, can they win the series? Or will England finally get going in Adelaide?
Jack Tobin brings you his full preview and betting tips for the 3rd Test of the Ashes below, with odds thanks to Neds!
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Australia vs England 3rd Test Preview & Betting Tips
Adelaide Oval, Wednesday 17th December, 10:30am AEDT
Australia
Squad: Pat Cummins, Steve Smith, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster
It’s all positive on the selection front for Australia, with skipper Pat Cummins in the squad for the first time this summer. With Nathan Lyon also set to be picked, Australia will likely welcome back 871 Test wickets worth of experience for the third Test - a scary sight for England. The likely scenario will be Neser and Doggett replaced by Cummins and Lyon. Although Usman Khawaja is set to be fit, it’s nearly impossible to see him coming given how well Australia batted in the second innings of Perth, and in Brisbane without him.
It was a typically disciplined performance from Australia that fans have become accustomed to in the Andrew McDonald era, as the Aussies cruised to an eight wicket win in the second Test. Mitchell Starc did the damage once again with the ball, taking 6/75 in the first innings to restrict England to 334. In the second innings it was Michael Neser who did the damage taking 5/42 including the scalps of Zak Crawley, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope and Will Jacks, to ensure Australia would only be chasing a small total.
After question marks in the first Test Australia’s batting group responded in resounding fashion, scoring 511 - Australia’s first 500+ total at home since 2022. For only the third time in history, all eleven Australia batsmen scored in double figures, in a remarkable team performance. Mitchell Starc played a crucial role top scoring with 77, but his 141 balls he faced allowed Australia to bowl under lights on day three, which proved telling. Jake Weatherald (72), Marnus Labuschagne (65), Alex Carey (63) and Steve Smith (61) all provided crucial contributions.
England
Squad: Ben Stokes, Harry Brook, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Matthew Fisher
England now find themselves in a massive hole, down 2-0 and needing to win all three remaining games to regain the Ashes for the first time in a decade. Brendon McCullum has flagged that he won’t make any changes to the top seven despite their shortcomings, with England’s bowling attack likely to be altered. Brydon Carse and Gus Atkinson look to be on the hot seat. Carse has taken 3/236 at an average of 78 through the first two Tests, while Carse is England’s leading wicket taker with 9 wickets, he’s leaked 5.39 runs per over and has made scoring very easy for the Australians. Josh Tongue and Matthew Potts look the likely replacements.
The same issues remain prevalent for England, with their thoughtless batting once again costing them badly. England looked destined to put up a big first innings score when they were 2/122 with Zak Crawley and Joe Root looking in ominous touch, however Crawley, Harry Brook and Ben Stokes were dismissed in very preventable ways that hamstrung England’s innings. England slumped to 9/264 before a 70 run partnership got England to 334, however it clearly wasn’t enough.
After putting together a brilliant performance with the ball in the first innings in Perth, England have been dreadful with the ball since. They conceded 2/205 in just 28.2 overs in the second innings in Perth, they conceded 511 in the first innings in Brisbane where Australia went at over 5 an over for the majority of the innings and they conceded 69 runs in 10 overs as Australia comfortably chased down the target in the second innings. Jofra Archer’s speeds have stopped off significantly and he is now under even more pressure with Mark Wood out for the series. England need to find a way to control Australia's run rate if they are to get back into the series.
Match Prediction
There’s been a lot of assumptions that this pitch will be flatter and easier for England to bat on, which the numbers completely disagree with. Wickets have fallen at a quicker rate in red ball games at Adelaide than they have in pink ball matches, while batting averages are also lower in day Test matches. Adelaide Oval has been the second hardest pitch to bat on in Test cricket in day matches over the past decade when it comes to batting averages.
With Cummins and Lyon coming back into the Australian side, there’s less reliance on Mitchell Starc to shoulder the wicket taking load, while Scott Boland will also be benefitted from Cummins return, despite having a positive start to the Ashes. The longer this Test goes the more important Nathan Lyon becomes. Australia have great variety in their bowling attack, which will put them in great shape for whatever is thrown their way in Adelaide.
With the bat Australia are clearly levels ahead of England in their ability to adapt to conditions and game situations, and with how poor England have been for the majority of the two Tests with the ball, it makes the gap between the two sides even bigger. Australia have won 16 of their last 20 Tests, while England have lost three straight Tests and four of their last six.
Australia’s last six Tests at the Adelaide Oval have produced wins of 10 wickets, 10 wickets, 419 runs, 275 runs, 8 wickets and an innings and 48 runs. Since 1998 there have been seven Ashes Tests at the Adelaide Oval, with Australia winning six of those seven Tests. The Ashes are there for the taking and Australia will be desperate to hammer home the advantage they have, unlike in 2023.
Australia to Win
$1.48 (1.5 Units)
Australia vs England Prop Bet
Travis Head loves playing against England and he loves playing at his home ground, the Adelaide Oval. This week both of those strengths come together, as Head bats in his most prolific ground. The South Australian has scored 634 runs at an average of 79.25 at the Adelaide Oval, his best average at any venue in the world that he has played more than one Test at. He has three centuries from his last three Tests at Adelaide, with scores of 175, 38*, 119 and 140 in his last three Tests at his home venue.
Travis Head: Top Australia 1st Innings Run Scorer
$5.00
