NRL Super Saturday is back! Fans will be blessed with the return of 3 NRL matches, with the first beginning at 3pm. There is money to be won in the various NRL Betting markets, so it pays to tune in to what is preferred (and the late movements via Twitter). The first match is held at the SCG, with the Roosters hosting the Knights.It has been a one-sided affair recently and the Knights cannot afford a slow start to their 2022 campaign.
The second match heads north to Brisbane to the (new) adopted home ground of the Warriors, the Sunshine Coast, as they host the Dragons. Both teams are out to improve on last season with each missing out on a spot in the Finals.
Finally, the Tigers host the Storm in Western Sydney at the newly named CommBank Stadium. The Storm dominated the Tigers last year, but the hosts will be out to prove that this season is different from previous years.
As always, we will be providing betting tips for EVERY game in the 2022 NRL season, so be sure to head to our NRL Tips page for regular updates throughout Round 1 and beyond.
NRL Round 1 Saturday Betting Tips
Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights
SCG, Saturday 3.00pm (AEDT)
The Roosters were brave in 2021, combatting a horror injury toll to still feature prominently in the season, only to be eliminated in Week 2 of the Finals. Forced to include several youngsters in their side, the Roosters are in a strong position to achieve success in 2022. They will play host to the Knights, a team that can only dream of such spirit and consistency if their recent campaigns are anything to go by.
After several disappointing years where they have under achieved, pressure is mounting on this team to produce a positive season. There were glimpses of hope last season, but they cannot rely on only a few individuals to get them through the year. In the end, it will come down to a concerted effort from the entire coaching staff and playing group.
The Stats
Head-to-Head = Roosters 31 Knights 13
At The SCG = Roosters 76% Knights 0%
Last 10 meetings = Roosters 9 Knights 1 – The Roosters average winning margin is 26 points. Remarkably, this is also the Knights average from their last win against the Roosters which came in Round 11, 2019. The Knights have won just 2 of the past 12 against the Roosters and it’s been 12+ years since they defeated their opponents at home. They have been unsuccessful at the SCG in 2 attempts.
Verdict
The Knights hardly excite the imagination ahead of this match and that is why the Roosters head into this game as the shortest priced favourites for the round. They are a capable team if a few of their stars perform well; yet they appear unable to match the Roosters for 80 minutes. The Roosters started building towards this season midway through last year and are well placed to perform strongly.
The move of Keary to halfback takes pressure away from Walker and opens him up to play a roaming role; his danger in carrying the ball to the line is amplified. This means trouble for the Knights, and they could struggle to halt the momentum of their opponents. Early season fitness and possible wet conditions may keep the score closer than a complete blowout, but the Roosters should still win this game by more than 2 converted tries.
Prop Bet:
3 leg Same Game Multi = Tupou/Momirovski/Keary to score @ $9 – With the Roosters expected to enjoy a free-flowing game, a few of their players should open their scoring tallies for the season. Wingers Tupou and Momirovski will benefit from sweeping edges plays and are also lethal in the air. They could even be a backable choice for FTS/LTS bets. Keary is one of the best support players in the game; the way he takes the ball to the defence allows him to push through and often break free unmarked. He is the value option ($3.10).
New Zealand Warriors v St George-Illawarra Dragons
Sunshine Coast Stadium, Saturday 5.30pm (AEDT)
The second match of Super Saturday heads north to Queensland with the Warriors playing out of their new base on the Sunshine Coast. The Dragons make the trip north, hoping to put behind a horror finish to 2021. Derailed by the (now infamous) BBQ incident, the Dragons (and their newly extended coach) will be desperate to turn around opinions of their playing group. They appear to have recruited well and rid themselves of troubled players, but high performance is also crucial to their success.
The Warriors also aspire to improve; although, their recruiting policy suggests they are still in a holding pattern rather than pushing for success. It has been a tough few years for the Auckland based team and the hope is that they will be able to return home at some stage this year. Perhaps this will be the motivation they need to change their fortunes. For both teams, starting the season off on a positive note is crucial and this is a game that they should win if they hope to finish higher on the ladder. Unfortunately, there can be only one winner (sort of) and this promises to be an intriguing game of rugby league.
The Stats
Head-to-Head = Warriors 10 Dragons 22
At Sunshine Coast Stadium = Never played here
Last 10 meetings = Warriors 6 Dragons 4 – The average winning margin for the Warriors is 10.3 points compared to the Dragons 16.8 points. The Warriors have won 5 of the past 6 matches against the Dragons.
Verdict
When odds first opened on this match at the start of the week, the Warriors were posted as favourites. Since then, they’ve changed, and the Dragons now rightly hold that title. Their squad has far greater depth than the Warriors. The home side appears limited through the middle and rely heavily on the forwards creating a strong platform for Shaun Johnson to work from. Defence has been a cornerstone of Griffin-coached Dragons teams and this one should be no different. The bloke can coach. There is a strong chance that they strangle the Warriors into submission and rely upon a few chances to get them the victory.
There are also two important factors to consider – the Warriors preseason trial against the Titans was cancelled and this is their first game at their new ‘home’. The fact that they missed a fixture could mean that they are not at their peak for this match. Time on the field is important for combinations. The venue will count for something, but they have also proven themselves capable in the previous two seasons. While the margin remains unknown, the Dragons are well placed to cover the narrow line.
Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm
Commbank Stadium, Saturday 7.35pm (AEDT)
It was a well-documented mess at the Tigers in 2021. There is a desire for an improved performance this year from fans, players, and coaches but they face a tough test first up against the Storm. Not only is the challenge of facing Melbourne difficult, but they must also play without one of their key playmakers in Adam Douehi. Perhaps a strong preseason under the fierce guide of Michael Maguire will have this team fit and ready to go. Then again, he comes from the Craig Bellamy school of coaching and the Storm have a well-documented record of starting the season positively.
They came within a game of featuring in the Grand Final last year and despite being in the strongest position, they were upset by the eventual Premiers, the Panthers. They can still be proud of what they achieved but this squad will be desperate to improve. Looking at their recruitment, it is difficult to see where a regression will come from, and this spells trouble for their opponents.
The Stats
Head-to-Head = Tigers 12 Storm 22
At CommBank Stadium = Tigers 33% Storm 47%
Last 10 meetings = Tigers 3 Storm 7 – The average winning margin for the Tigers is 7 points compared to 17.1 points for the Storm. The Storm averaged a 39-point winning margin over the Tigers in 2021.
Verdict
The Tigers are a team with a new logo, (some) new players, same coach but a difficult task ahead. The Storm are a team who rarely loses the opening match of the season and this game should be no different. Despite missing a few key players, they are still a strong side and are superior to their opponents. Had the Tigers had Douehi, they would’ve been an increased chance, but the game is still Melbourne’s to lose. They are stronger across the field and even if the Tigers match them at the start, the bench strength of the Storm maintains their intensity while the Tigers appears set to drop.
The difficult decisions lies within selecting a betting option for this match. The line is set at 12.5 but this may not be enough. The Tigers defence will be strong early but that could only hold up for so long. Eventually, the Storm will score and in order for the Tigers to keep this game competitive, they too will need to score points. Unfortunately, they do not appear capable of scoring the tally which will keep this game within 2 converted tries. The Storm may only kick clear late, but it should be a unanimous victory.
