The 2019 Railway Stakes headlines racing at Ascot in Perth on Saturday, November 23rd.
The meeting is the first of The Masters, which is the three-week carnival in the West, featuring three $1million Group 1s. The first of those is the G1 Railway Stakes, which sees a field of 14 line up over the 1600m.
We've previewed the race in detail below!
2019 Railway Stakes Preview & Betting Tips
Speed map
The scratching of Cockney Crew earlier in the week completely threw the speedmap in the air, because it's anyones guess who might lead now. We could see Damien Oliver fire (4) Achernar Star out of the gates in search for the rail to try and offset his wide gate, but he might race best coming from off the speed these days. (6) The Velvet King is another possibility to kick up from barrier 6 and take up the role as frontrunner. In his five starts last prep, he led on every occasion, but we've seen him take cover so far this prep. (9) MIzlecki has sat in the box seat in her two starts so far this prep. At big odds, they might bite the bullet and take the chance to lead with no designated speed in the race. Could Bob Peters instruct apprentice Jade McNaught to go forward on (10) Perfect Jewel, if even to set the race up for the stablemate that's likely to be coming from the back of the field? Or could we see Lindsey Smith take luck out of the equation from barrier 1 with his runner (16) Tamasa? They are all possibilities and unfortunately we won't know until the gates open. Sometimes that can mean the first part of the race is run slowly as everyone is waiting for someone else to do something, and sometimes when there is no obvious speed we can see a number of horses speed forward trying to take advantage of the situation, thus resulting in a hot tempo. That makes this race so hard to assess.
Runner-by-runner analysis
(1) Gatting: The shock winner of the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington earlier this prep. He hasn't done much since and he returned to Perth last start where he ran 2nd in the G2 Lee-Steere Stakes. He carries top weight under handicap conditions here and it's hard to win this race doing that. He's drawn to get great run from the gate but I'm looking elsewhere in terms of winning chances.
(2) Best Of Days: Has been mixing his form this preparation. His past two starts leading into this have both been good. He was beaten a nose in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley two starts ago and then ran 5th in the Kennedy Cantala Stakes after sitting four-wide the trip. Drawn awkardly in barrier 11 here and he carries 57kg, which is difficult to do under these conditions. He's another I'll be risking.
(3) Star Exhibit: The old boy returned with a bang, winning the Lee-Steere Stakes first up like he was a three-year-old, not an eight-year-old. The dual Perth Cup winner went off the boil for a while after racing under the care of Darren Weir, but he seemed to just suddenly rediscover his form late last preparation and has carried that into this prep. He's got a good second up record, a good record at the track and distance and draws ideally in barrier 4, so he gets his chance to run well again, but he doesn't quite fit the profile that's been so successful in this race in recent years. Happy to take him on.
(4) Achernar Star: As aluded to in the speed map comments, it's hard to guess what the tactics will be on him from the widest barrier. Will they fire him forward in search of the lead? Or will they drag him back in search for cover? I think they'll go forward, but I'm not convinced that's how he races best. Twice this prep we've seen him go forward, but it was the one time he came from back in the field where we really saw him launch. He ran 3rd in the Kingston Town Classic as a three-year-old, but I don't think he's got the ability to win this nowadays. This is a weak edition of the race though.
(5) Reykjavik: Lindsey Smith has this horse flying. He was a Listed winner over the mile at Flemington during the Winter and he took out a Group 3 last start over 1400m. He returns to Perth now, which is where he originally started his racing career. The step up in trip is ideal and Lindsey did say going into last start that he might just need one more gallop, so there's potentially improvement to come from his last start win. Drawn awkwardly, they could try and send him forward but they'd risk getting caught wide, so it will be interesting to see the early tactics from Yendall. He fits the right profile as a 5YO carrying 53kg, I think he needs to improve to win but he's a rough chance.
(6) The Velvet King: Profiles particularly well for this race. 4YO's have a terrific record in this race and seven of the past eight winners have carried 53-53.5kg. Two starts ago he won the Northerly Stakes and he then ran 3rd in the Lee-Steere Stakes last time out, but that was at WFA, so he drops 6kg on that run for today. Should be rock-hard fit for the step up to the mile today after three runs over 1400m, draws well, should sit on speed and prove a very good winning chance.
(7) Tellem We're Comin: On first look at this race earlier in the week, I didn't have this horse in the numbers, but the more I've looked at the race, the more I've gravitated toward him. In what looks a pretty weak edition of the race, he just ticks so many boxes. He's absolutely belted them in his past two starts, which were in the Hannans Handicap at Kalgoorlie and the Northam Cup. Now, those aren't races that typically make you confident backing him in a Group 1, but we did see Great Shot come through the Northam Cup on his way to winning this race a couple of years ago. And this horse smacked them, he was just way too good. He's undefeated from four starts at the mile, he's a five-year-old and gets in with the ideal weight of 53kg. The stable have won two of the past five Railways. Brenton Avdulla flies over for the ride - I can't say that necessarily does anything for me, but he's better than most over here. Hopefully they run along a bit and he can launch late.
(8) Variation: I actually tipped this horse the year that Great Shot won and he ran 4th. I've always thought he had plenty of ability. He had two starts here in Perth at the start of the prep before going to Melbourne for the G3 Moonga Stakes. He ran 2nd in that, running home strongly from back in the field. He's got four wins and five placings from 10 starts at the mile, so this is his pet distance and he carries the right weight of 53kg. I just feel he might have had his chance to win this a few years back, though it was a stronger race than what it is this year. I've got others ahead.
(9) Mizlecki: Could be an option to take up the lead from the low draw. She's box seated in her two starts this prep and with Jerry Noske on board, they may well elect to take up the running. Her only prior run over this distance came last preparation in the Listed Old Comrade Stakes, where she box seated from barrier 1 and buried her opposition by 4L. She was fourth up on that occasion, and prior to that win she ran 4th to the likes of Achernar Star, Variation and Tellem We're Comin. It wouldn't completely shock me if she finished in the money.
(10) Perfect Jewel: She's a strange mare this one. Early days she looked like she could be anything; in fact, she won the WA Guineas as a three-year-old and ran 4th in the Kingston Town Classic after that. But she then went off the boil after a long time off the track and hasn't won since. First up she was awful, but then last start she ran 3rd and had no luck at all. That was behind Samizdat and Regal Power, and if you watch the replay, there's every argument that she should have finished closer than she did. Third up, up to the mile, down in the weights are all positives. Again, not completely hopeless but you'd have to take her on trust.
(12) Regal Power: Interesting prep for the WA Derby winner, but I suppose there's not many other races for him over here and he's better off being targeted at a handicap where he carries 53kg rather than a WFA race where he'll carry 59kg. His Derby win was back in April and he was spelled immediately after. He had three trials before returning in the Asian Beau Stakes three weeks ago, where he was beaten fair and square by Samizdat. He comes into this second up and gets the blinkers applied for the first time, so this is clearly the race they've targeted. If he really ran to his absolute best he could win, but is 1600m still too short for him? And is it ideal for him to be coming into this second up? I don't think so and I'll reluctantly be taking him on, though I did a similar thing in this race last year with Galaxy Star and paid the price for it.
(13) Samizdat: They threw the blinkers on last start because he had to win the Asian Beau Stakes to guarantee a start in this race, and the plan paid off, as he put in an impressive performance to win by 1.5L. He beat Regal Power by 1.5L in that race, but he gives Regal Power a 3.5kg weight swing today, and Regal Power was also only first up in the Asian Beau. I also wonder if Samizdat is better suited on a track with a bit of give in it. He's had five starts on wet ground for four wins, but just the one win from three starts on good ground. In terms of his profile, he suits this race perfectly as a lightly-raced four-year-old with 53.5kg. He draws well in barrier 3 and has the turn of foot required to win this race. I think he'll go very well but have a couple ahead of him. Note: Jarrad Noske will ride him 0.5kg overweight.
(15) Platoon: Opened his campaign with two wins before running 2nd to Mississippi Delta in the RJ Peters Stakes last weekend. He comes into this on the quick back-up and his profile suits the race but he draws poorly and looks outlcassed anyway. He only drops 1kg from that last start run and he couldn't get the job done there so I doubt he'll get it done here in a harder race.
(16) Tamasa: I think he's a fascinating runner. I'll definitely be including him at big odds in exotics. Lindsey Smith said prior to last start that they finally had his feet right, and it was the best he's run all prep since moving over to WA. He's had an awfully strange and interrupted prep, going from 1200m to 1400m, back to 1000m and then straight up to 1500m. He was seven weeks between runs before last start so I think he'll improve quite a bit off that run and the mile is his distance. Drawn barrier 1 for an easy run, I think he can run a big race at a blowout price.
Selections
Siding with the horses down in the weights. I always like the four and five-year-olds carrying around 53kg in this race. Unfortunately this year we have nine horses carrying that weight. It's not a vintage edition of the race, and I think Tellem We're Comin is racing in career best form, which could be good enough to see him take this out. Regal Power is the top seed of the Peters horses and they've clearly singled out this race to set him for. Expect him to improve second up, out to the mile with the blinkers on. The Velvet King should go close from the good draw, while Samizdat should also acquit himself well. Tamasa is one to throw in at big odds.
1st (7) TELLEM WE'RE COMIN
2nd (12) REGAL POWER
3rd (6) THE VELVET KING
4th (13) SAMIZDAT
(7) Tellem We're Comin
$5.50
