Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a rare two-game Monday Night Football slate, giving bettors back-to-back opportunities to find value. While not a traditional primetime double header, both matchups carry real stakes despite the lack of star power.
First up, the New York Jets (0-3) visit the Miami Dolphins (0-3) in an AFC East clash of winless teams. Both sides are desperate to avoid falling into an 0-4 hole, a mark that historically signals the end of playoff hopes.
An hour later, the Denver Broncos (1-2) host the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Mile High. Denver relies on its defence to keep games close, while Cincinnati already looks lost without Joe Burrow. Four flawed teams, two volatile matchups — and plenty of betting angles.
2025-26 NFL Week 4 Tuesday Betting Tips
Miami Dolphins (0-3) vs New York Jets (0-3)
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami – Tuesday 30th September, 9:15am (AEST)
Last Week Recap
The Dolphins enter this contest with extra rest, having last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. They were competitive early in Buffalo, going into halftime tied at 14, but ultimately the Bills’ superior firepower proved too much, running out 31-21 winners.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had one of his worst games in recent memory, managing just 146 passing yards. Miami leaned heavily on running back De’Von Achane, who produced 62 rushing yards and added 7 receptions for 29 yards, but beyond him the offense looked stagnant. For a team that once had one of the league’s most explosive passing games, that regression is a major concern.
The Jets also enter 0-3, coming off a gutting 29-27 loss to Tampa Bay. The Bucs dominated for most of the game, leading 20-6 at the half, before a late Jets surge — capped by a blocked field goal return touchdown from Will McDonald IV — briefly gave them the lead with under two minutes remaining. Predictably, the Jets’ defense crumbled when it mattered most, allowing Tampa Bay to drive downfield for a game-winning field goal.
Tyrod Taylor was serviceable but uninspiring, throwing for 197 yards with 2 touchdowns and a pick. Garrett Wilson once again looked like a star miscast in a broken offense, hauling in 10 of 13 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. Still, the underlying issues remain: this Jets’ defense, once elite, is underperforming badly, and the offense simply cannot sustain drives.
Matchup Breakdown
These rivals split their two meetings last season, both high-scoring affairs. Miami took a 32-26 overtime thriller in Week 14 before the Jets responded with a comfortable 32-20 win at home in Week 18. Both games flew over the total, but context is important — quarterback injuries on both sides shaped those matchups, and the circumstances entering this year’s meeting are very different.
On the lookahead line, Miami opened as 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 44.5. With reports that Justin Fields is expected to start for New York after recovering from a concussion, the market nudged the spread out to -3 in favor of Miami. That movement speaks volumes about how bettors currently view Fields: his ceiling is high, but his floor is ugly, and his style of play can cap offensive efficiency if he isn’t able or willing to run.
Statistically, the Jets’ defense has been shocking. Through three weeks, they rank:
- 28th in total defense (PFF)
- Bottom five in pressure rate
- Bottom three in coverage grades
Sauce Gardner’s decline is particularly alarming, and if he isn’t able to lock down one side of the field, this unit becomes extremely vulnerable.
For Miami, the offense hasn’t clicked yet, but the matchup is inviting. Mike McDaniel’s scheme thrives when facing a defense that can’t generate pressure, and the Dolphins’ skill talent should have an edge. Tyreek Hill is always a candidate to break out, but the more intriguing angle may be Jaylen Waddle, who has dominated this matchup historically.
Betting Angle
At Dolphins -2.5, Miami offered real value, especially against a Jets team in chaos. Now that the line sits at -3, the bet becomes less attractive, but still playable if you want action. With both teams sitting at 2-1 to the over through three weeks, the total of 44.5 is tempting, but Fields’ concussion status makes that a risky play.
The props market offers more clarity. Waddle’s receiving yardage line is in the high 40s, which looks too low given his track record against New York. In his last four games versus the Jets, Waddle has gone over 99 receiving yards three times. If Sauce Gardner spends most of the game chasing Tyreek Hill, Waddle could once again be the primary beneficiary.
Prop Bet: J. Waddle over 49.5 receiving yards ($1.90 @ Bet365) – 1.5 units
Dolphins -2.5
$1.83 (2.5 Units)
Denver Broncos (1-2) vs Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
Empower Field at Mile High – Tuesday 30th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week Recap
Denver’s trip to Los Angeles in Week 3 was a tough test, and while the defense kept them competitive, the offense once again failed to deliver. The Broncos held a 17-13 lead entering the fourth quarter and forced two turnovers, but rookie quarterback Bo Nix couldn’t capitalize. The Chargers rallied late to win 23-20, sending Denver to 1-2.
Nix finished with just 153 passing yards, completing 14 of 25 throws with one touchdown. While he avoided turnovers, the lack of explosiveness is glaring. The Broncos rank last in the NFL in passing offense by PFF, despite boasting the league’s highest-rated pass blocking unit. The numbers don’t lie: Denver’s receivers aren’t creating enough separation, and Nix isn’t accurate enough to compensate.
Courtland Sutton remains the lone bright spot, recording 6 catches for 118 yards and a score last week. JK Dobbins provided balance with 83 yards on 11 carries, but this is a unit struggling to finish drives.
The Bengals, meanwhile, endured an absolute disaster in Minnesota. Playing without Joe Burrow, Jake Browning turned the ball over twice and oversaw an offense that fumbled three more times. In total, Cincinnati committed five turnovers and managed just 10 points in a 48-10 loss. Ja’Marr Chase was bottled up, Tee Higgins was invisible, and running back Chase Brown had a miserable 10 carries for 3 yards.
At 2-1, Cincinnati is technically still in the playoff hunt, but the Burrow injury looms over everything. Without him, this is a below-average team, and the Broncos’ defense presents a daunting challenge.
Matchup Breakdown
These teams last clashed late in 2024, when Burrow and Wilson engaged in a quarterback duel that produced a 30-24 overtime thriller. That version of the Bengals no longer exists. Instead, bettors are left to judge whether Denver’s anemic offense or Cincinnati’s turnover-prone attack is the greater liability.
The market opened with Denver as 6.5-point favorites on the lookahead, before re-opening at -7.5 after Cincinnati’s implosion. The total opened at 44.5, and currently sits around that number, with some shops offering 44.
Denver’s defense is the key here. Patrick Surtain II is expected to shadow Ja’Marr Chase, limiting Cincinnati’s most dangerous weapon. That puts pressure on Tee Higgins to step up — something he has failed to do consistently. Browning will also be tested by a Denver front seven that pressured Justin Herbert relentlessly in Week 3.
The Broncos’ own offensive issues prevent this from being a slam-dunk play. Nix laying more than a touchdown feels uncomfortable, especially given how poor Denver has been in red-zone efficiency. Still, Cincinnati looked completely disjointed last week, and unless Browning suddenly finds rhythm, they could be in for another long night.
Betting Angle
Denver -7 is close to fair value, but not a spot to rush into. The stronger play lies in the total. With both offenses struggling, and both defenses in position to dictate terms, the under 44.5 carries value. My fair number is closer to 43.5, and with 44 being a key total in NFL betting, grabbing the hook at 44.5 is especially appealing.
As for props, Ja’Marr Chase remains the Bengals’ best chance to generate offense. Even against Surtain, Chase is versatile enough to shift inside and rack up catches across the middle. With his receiving line set around 65.5 yards, the over has value — particularly since Chase thrives in high-pressure matchups. Betting him at 70+ for plus-money is a strong angle.
Prop Bet: J. Chase 70+ receiving yards ($2.05 @ NEDS) – 1.5 units
Under 44.5 Points
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Final Thoughts
Monday Night Football in Week 4 may not feature headline-grabbing matchups, but both games carry plenty of intrigue for bettors. In Miami, the Dolphins and Jets are each staring down 0-4, and desperation often brings volatility. Miami’s offense hasn’t looked right, but the Jets’ defense has fallen apart, and that creates an opening for Mike McDaniel to finally unlock his playmakers. If Jaylen Waddle continues his dominance against New York, the Dolphins should edge clear and finally grab a win.
In Denver, the contrast couldn’t be sharper: an elite Broncos defense against a Bengals offense that looks completely lost without Joe Burrow. Asking rookie Bo Nix to cover more than a touchdown feels dicey, but Denver’s defensive pressure and Cincy’s turnover issues make the under particularly appealing. Ja’Marr Chase will get his chances, but the Bengals’ margin for error is slim.
Overall, both contests may lack glamour, yet each offers clear betting opportunities if you pick your spots wisely.
