My AFL betting tips were a roller coaster last week, but a bit of order was restored after the tumultuous opening round. I ultimately ended up 4/7 for a small profit that was eaten into with one losing 2-unit play. Hopefully we can find more winners and add to the profits with my 2017 AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips.
2017 AFL Round 3 Betting Tips
Sydney Swans vs Collingwood Magpies (Friday, April 7 at 7:50pm AEST)
I'm not sure anyone would have predicted the Swans to be in 15th place with zero wins after two rounds of the 2017 AFL season, but that's how we find them heading into a Friday night clash against Collingwood in Round 3.
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There has been talk in the footy media that the Swans haven't lost three in a row since 1999. I really don't think that will happen at the SCG this Friday, so prepare yourselves for even more Nathan Buckly scrutiny when the Pies find themselves in the bottom four heading into Round 4. For Collingwood, this week will be all about cleaning up their goal kicking after their very sloppy effort in the forward 50 last week. They will need their forward line to step up in a big way if they are any chance against a Sydney side that has Lance Franklin and Sam Reid in hot form. Collingwood can't afford to rest on the laurels of their talented midfield, because there are plenty of teams - Sydney included - that are just as potent in the middle.
The last time these two teams met was at the SCG in the opening round of last season and the Swans got up by 80 points. The Pies actually haven't won at the SCG since 2000 and in their current form you wouldn't think they are any chance on Friday night. While both teams have lost the last two games, there were times the Swans showed us some of their best against the Dogs last week, while there were times the Pies looked like they would struggle against a VFL team. The Swans have a lot to work on (especially disposal efficiency) and don't have their best side on the park, but I think they will bounce back in a big way this week in front of a home crowd.
Tip: Swans at the line (-21.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
North Melbourne vs GWS Giants (Saturday, April 8 at 1:45pm AEST)
North Melbourne have played better than expected the last couple of weeks, but are ultimately 0-2 heading into Round 3 against the Giants.
The Roos will no doubt be licking their wounds after losing to the Cats by just one point last week. They had every chance to win the game, but couldn't get the job done. There were huge positives to draw from the game though, with Shaun Higgins dominating through the midfield and with his run off halfback, Robbie Tarrant being the general in the backline and North's young kids stepping up when players like Andrew Swallow and Jack Ziebell had very little impact. It's going to be harder this week for the Roos, especially if the Giants play like they did last week in a game where they scored a monstrous 160 points. However, It's hard to quantify how much North's effort last week was because of the Cats struggling, or North are better than once thought. Likewise, the Giants dominated a very poor Gold Coast. Going to sit this one out and learn a bit more about both teams.
Tip: No Bet.
Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, April 8 at at 2:10pm AEST)
While a team like the Swans have started the season with an unexpected 0-2 record, the Tigers have surprised us by starting 2-0 for the first time since 1997. It will no doubt be a struggle to snag another victory in Round 3 as they take on the tough Eagles on Saturday afternoon.
I'm still not convinced the Tigers are as dangerous as some seem to believe. They took care of a very young Carlton side in Round 1 (a team I think will be the wooden spooners) and Collingwood played some putrid football last week and the Tigers only won by 19 points. West Coast didn't look unstoppable in their 19-point win over the Saints last week, but their line-up is gelling at the moment with JJ Kennedy dangerous up forward, Sam Mitchell fitting into an already potent midfield and Jeremey McGovern continuing to solidify himself as one of the best defenders in the game. The Eagles are the highest scoring team from the first two rounds and should continue that through the rest of the season. Alex Rance is probably the only defender in the comp who has McGovern covered, but his hands will be full with the West Coast forward line batting deep. The MCG won't worry the Eagles either as they have won four of the last five against the Tigers. It should be an interesting game with the Eagles a high-disposal team against the Tigers who have adopted a slower, contested type of football. Can't see the Tigers winning, but it would be very disappointing for them to get blown out in Melbourne.
Tip: West Coast by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, April 8 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Cats were dangerously close to a disappointing loss to the Roos last week, but ultimately scraped through with a one-point victory. Likewise, Melbourne weren't too flash in Round 2, struggling against Carlton at times, but eventually steadying to find a 22-point win. Regardless, one of these two teams will be 3-0 after they meet at Etihad on Saturday afternoon.
The biggest disappointment for Melbourne going into Round 3 is that Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis will both be on the sidelines after being reported for silly actions last week. If those two were in the side, the Cats wouldn't be three-goal favourites. Hogan being missing speaks for itself, but I think people will underestimate the impact of being without Lewis. Yes, the Demons have depth in the midfield, but a big reason players like Clayton Oliver and other youngsters have been able to dominate the last two weeks is the presence Lewis brings to stoppages. Despite the Cats not playing their best last week, you have to think this will be a tough ask for the Demons - especially at Etihad where the Demons have won twice in almost ten years, albiet getting the monkey off the back in Round 1 of this season. If you think the Demons can win here, I actually don't hate the 18-point line as I think they will be competitive, but the value here is with Geelong at the margin.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, April 8 at 7:10pm AEST)
Some of the best games every year are the state 'showdowns', but there haven’t been too many times that both competitors are well and truly up and about like Port Adelaide and the Crows so far this season. This should be the best game of Round 3.
There is no doubt we will learn more about Port Adelaide this week than the Crows. I think we all understand how good the Crows can be, but we need to see if Port can continue the form that saw them trounce the Swans in Sydney and dominate the Dockers. If they get over the line against the Crows on Saturday night, you have to say they are the real deal. Not only will they be keen to continue the momentum of 2017, but they have lost the last three against their rivals and will be keen to get one back. In order to do that, they need Robbie Gray to show up like he did last week when he kicked six goals and will need Charlie Dixon to keep taking big marks that has seen him look like the dangerous forward we thought he could be. The Crows deserve to be favourites after defeating GWS and the Hawks in the last two, but we know anything can happen in a showdown and we know the Power are in great form. I'm happy to sit back and enjoy the show, taking either team under 24.5 at the same odds as the line here.
Tip: Either Team by Under 24.5 Points - $1.91 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, April 8 at 5:40pm AWST)
The way the Dockers are going, they will be fighting with the Blues for the wooden spoon this season. That's very disappointing considering they had relatively high hopes for 2017 with the return of Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands. Coach Ross Lyon is already under scrutiny and that will likely continue next week after they face the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night.
Despite their recent efforts, the Dockers will take two positives into Round 3 - that the game is at Domain and that they managed to defeat the Bulldogs in Round 23 of last season. That's about where it ends, however, and I doubt they truly think they are a chance to win this game. They are just doing very little right at the moment and it's hard to see their current list improving dramatically. Their backline is deplorable and their game plan really struggled against the quick ball movement of Port Adelaide last week. As long as the Dogs do their thing, they should find an easy win here and that's why they are five-goal favourites. The Dogs also come into this with a couple of extra day's break. Not a hugely confident play out in the west, but happy to take the Dogs at the line.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (-30.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, April 9 at 1:10pm AEST)
After St Kilda's disappointing start to the season they have a chance to redeem themselves against the Lions at Etihad Stadium on Sunday.
When the Lions defeated the Suns in the opening round of the season it was hard to gauge how much they may have improved in the off-season. Then the Suns showed their true colours last week and the Lions lost to Essendon and it's likely the Lions are just as we originally thought. I think the Saints will win this game, but I don't love the 6-goal line. I do think the Saints total score is too high, however, and perhaps skewed by the fact the Saints defeated the Lions 161-103 the last time the two teams met at Etihad - in a game where Nick Reiwoldt kicked 9 and although he has made a remarkable recovery to make a return this week, you can't see him doing that again. The bookies have St Kilda's line at 119.5 which they only went over twice in 9 wins at Etihad last season. The Saints averaged 111 points in wins at Etihad and that includes the 161 they scored against the Lions and 135 against Essendon. Taking all this into account coupled with the fact the Lions have been competitive the last two weeks, leads me to take the under on this one.
Tip: St Kilda Total Team Score UNDER 119.5 - $1.90 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday, April 9 at 3:20pm AEST)
Regardless of how you feel about the Essendon saga, there is no doubt of their great effort to put 2016 behind them and focus on playing good footy in 2017. They are 2-0 going into Round 3 and will likely make the record 3-0 when they face the Blues on Sunday.
The Blues played much better footy against the Demons last week, but it is clear they are a young, inexperienced side that will be a bit of a roller coaster this year with more decline than incline. Their veterans put in a brave performance in Round 2, but they were outclassed by the Demons, especially on the rebound and converting inside 50 opportunities. That's how I see this game going against the Bombers - teams will simply punish Carlton for the mistakes of their inexperienced list. The Bombers should win, but they showed some vulnerability against the Lions and the Carlton showed they can be relatively competitive. Young kids are fighting for spots and their veterans seem to be showing a bit more fire than last year. I can see them keeping this within five goals.
Tip: Essendon by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.14 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks (Sunday, April 9 at 4:40pm AEST)
If you aren't already sick of it, you will be sick of hearing about Gary Ablett by the time the final game of Round 3 comes around. That's right, after one stinker of a game, an all time great's is under heavy scrutiny. While I do think that is a little silly, I am still intrigued to see how he responds to the criticism. Likewise, Hawthorn - one of the best teams of the modern era - is also being called upon to respond to their own critics. Should be an interesting way to end the weekend.
I'm not going to bury the lead here - I like the look of the Hawks at this line. I don't think they will take this game lightly and will need to make a statement here. The Suns need to make their own statement, but last week showed that they just don't have the list they think they have. Even if Ablett and Tom Lynch stand up and have a big game, the Hawks should still have enough to win. Birchall will be missed, but aslong as Shiels and and Smith play, I think the Hawks can win this relatively easily.
Tip: Hawthorn at the line (-19.5) - $1.91 at Bet365 (1.5 units)
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