After Takedown scored a maiden Group 1 victory in the Winterbottom Stakes and Gary Moore invaded the Ascot track last week, we move on to the third and final week of the TABtouch Masters at Ascot with the Kingston Town Classic.
We have a solid 9-race card once again, with the Jungle Dawn Classic and the Lee Steere Classic the two main supporting acts to the Group 1.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the inside position but moved out 3m in the straight. As has been the case in the past two weeks, I expect the track to play very fairly.
2016 Kingston Town Classic Preview & Betting Tips
Race 1 - AMELIA PARK BEEF HANDICAP 1100m
This is a cracking race to kick things off with some nice horses returning to the track. I can't go past the favourite JUST ACT NATURAL here despite the depth in the race. This horse made the progression to Saturday grade last prep and absolutely trotted in. He started a short-priced favourite at his last start (a race which has subsequently produced some good horses) but dropped out badly. Makes his first start for 200 days here which is a decent spell, but he's won two trials leading into this, the latest of which was by 3.5L. Gets barrier 1 so will lead or box seat and take some running down. ON TREND is another talented horse that returns to the track from a spell, having won his first two starts last prep before running 2nd to Socially Unique (handy horse). Has had the one trial leading into this and wears blinkers for the first time here; he's undefeated first up so expect him to go close. RED PADDY is another that is first up here and has claims at each-way odds, while RUBY CAN RUN is the value at double figure odds.
Tip: Just Act Natural
Race 2 - GET THE TABTOUCH PLATE 1100m
Tough race this but there is two that I want to be on and we can back both at the prices. DAINTY TESS ($5.50) is the first; she carried 58.5kg first up and didn't have the clearest path in the straight, having to weave back to the inside before finishing a close-up 3rd. She's undefeated 2nd up and with teh claim she drops 1.5kg which brings her right into the mix. Barrier 11 will prove trick to negotiate but with even luck expect her to be there at the end.
The second one is FAERIE WHISPER ($6.50) who ran 2nd in that race after charging home from the back of the field. She hit the line better than anything and the extra 100m should suit her down to the ground here. Barrier 10 means she will have to go back once again but look for her late. At $5.50 and $6.50 respectively, we can back both for a good result here.
The big watch is on SPANGLED IMPACT who ran 2nd in the Group 2 Karrakatta Plate behind Whispering Brook in April. Didn't come up in the Winter but won a trial leading into this so might be back to her best.
Tip: Dainty Tess / Faerie Whisper
Race 3 - PENFOLDS HANDICAP 2100m
We were on THE FORGOTTEN ONE last start and he is the one to beat here after winning his past three starts, but I'm going to side with MAGIC ROCKET here who drops to 57.5kg and is drawn much better today. He actually ran 2nd to The Forgotten One three starts back (beaten a head) and gets a 3kg weight swing from that run. Last start he had no hope with 59.5kg and barrier 13, so he is much better suited today. OUR MATE AL is another to consider with the good draw, as is MOSSERATTI, but the sharp rise to an untried distance is slightly concerning.
Tip: Magic Rocket
Race 4 - TABTOUCH-SIR ERNEST LEE-STEERE CLASSIC 1400m
CAIPIRINHIA made me look silly last start when I doubted her ability to drop back from the 1600m to the 1200m on the one-week back up but once I saw the trainer's text message followed by the influx of money it was all over! Having said that, I have to take her on again today with the step up to 1400m and the $1.80 price. She's the best horse in the race but I'm not convinced she runs 1400m very strongly, as evidenced by her defeat to Ellicazoon two starts ago when she got it all her own way out front and tired late. I'm with LUSAHA but more by default than anything. This horse drops back to the 1400m after a brave 5th in the Guineas, and this distance is much more suitable for him. With Bowman on board, he will camp right behind Caipirinhia and that might allow him to just edge past her late. At the prices I have to be on Lusaha. Best value STORED ENERGY 3rd up from a spell and up to 1400m.
Tip: Lusaha
Race 5 - CROWN TOWERS HANDICAP 1000m
Really tough race this one with at least four good winning chances. The form can be tied up with most but it leaves more questions than answers. The first to mention is VOLKOFF who is down in grade after running behind the likes of vega Magic and Rock Magic, who ran 3rd in the Winterbottom last week. They are very strong form lines and his record at this track and distance is phenomenal (5 starts, 3 wins). With the claim he gets down to 57kg but barrier 1 might cause problems with his pattern of racing. CHINETTI bounced back to the winners stall last start, clinging on to fall in. He should improve here given that was only his second start back from a 535 day spell. He goes up 2kg and will work across to the lead from barrier 10. He only beat VIKING FORREST by a head last start, and this horse charged home and was the eye-catching run. He beat the likes of Roger The Roman four starts ago over this track and distance, so with luck from barrier 2 he should be in the finish again. ROGER THE ROMAN was almost a horror show last start but Oliver got him clear and he burst through relatively untouched to win quite impressively. Two starts ago he finished 2nd ahead of Chinetti back in 3rd, but Chinetti has a 1.5kg weight swing today. Roger finished 3rd to Viking Forrest three starts back but I just think Oliver and the barrier makes the difference here. His win last start was impressive and he can back that up again, but it wouldn't be any surprise to see one of the other three win here.
Tip: Roger The Roman
Race 6 - JAMES BOAG'S PREMIUM HANDICAP 1400m
Another good race with some handy types engaged. We were on COMING BACK last start and I'm prepared to stick with him today. He finished 4th last start but he produced the quickest last 600m of the race in 33.98secs. Barrier 11 means he will have to go back, which is my only concern because there doesn't look to be great pace. This is his pet distance and if he gets a good ride he'll go close so I'm locking in the $5 currently available. DENDEE resumed with a big win last Saturday and she was backed off the map to do so. It looks like she's returned to her best and has found the turn of foot that is her best characteristic. Bowman takes over from Tim Clark today but my concern is barrier 1 as it could get her into traffic problems. OUR FINEST MOMENT for Damien Oliver looks the best value at $9 second up from a spell, while I expect UNIVERSAL LAW to show sharp improvement after disappointing last start.
Tip: Coming Back
Race 7 - ASCEND SALES TROPHIES-JUNGLE DAWN CLASSIC 1400m
This is a great race and one which I've spent quite a bit of time analyzing but at the end of the day COSMIC STORM is the best horse in the race and her finishing burst to beat most of these two weeks ago should see her incredibly hard to beat stepping up to 1400m. Her final 200m was super impressive and the extra distance will offset the extra kilogram of weight and the wide barrier. She drew 12 last start and won so 14 shouldn't be much of a difference. She will have to run down METEOROID who will likely go forward from the wide barrier. This horse ran 2nd behind Chocolate Holic three starts ago before beating Astronomite who then came out and won last weekend. Meteoroid was only chinned by Cosmic Storm on the line and the price disparity looks wrong. She could be value at $9.50. Big watch on I'M FEELING LUCKY who resumes from a spell after finishing the winter campaign with 4 straight wins. She will box seat from barrier 1 and has won a trial leading into this, but her record of 1 win from 5 starts first up from a spell, as well as 0 wins from 6 starts at the distance is slightly concerning. For those reasons I'll be taking her on today. I don't know for the life of me how Peter Hall managed to be 3-wide the trip from barrier 4 on JESTAJINGLE last start so he will be hoping to give it a better ride today; keep her safe. The best value in the race is UPTOWN FUNK who should have finished much closer behind Cosmic Storm and Meteoroid first up but was blocked everywhere she went. She recorded 4 wins last prep so she is obviously very good so include her in everything at $15.
Tip: Cosmic Storm (best bet)
Race 8 - PETERS INVESTMENTS-KINGSTON TOWN CLASSIC 1800m
The final Group 1 of the year and it's an absolute cracker!
I've narrowed it down to six winning chances and if you've been following my Twitter for the past couple of weeks you will know that I've got the Kiwi KAWI on top. This horse is a 5-time Group 1 winner in New Zealand and his run in the Railway Stakes was enormous. He carried 2.5kg more than any other horse in the race under handicap conditions and he never once got a clear run in the straight. He should have finished top 3, so at weight-for-age he is extremely well suited. He gets a 5kg weight swing on Scales Of Justice, 3.5kg on Good Project, 1.5kg on Perfect Reflection. 1800m is ideal and from barrier 4 he will sit 5th or 6th, get going at the 600m and he incredibly hard to beat.
PERFECT REFLECTION could be the hardest to beat after running 3rd in the Railway. The step up in distance suits her and she gets a 3.5kg weight swing on Scales of Justice. She should get exactly the same run from barrier 2 as she got in the Railway and she looks the best of the locals.
SCALES OF JUSTICE got a great ride from Douglas Whyte to win the Railway but he carried 53kg that day and now steps up to WFA so has to lump 58.5kg. I think that will bring him undone. Under these conditions he concedes plenty of weight to most other horses he beat that day but he does looks to get a soft lead so I don't think barrier 16 is such a bad draw for him. I think he'll run well but the weight swing might mean he finds one or two too good today.
GOOD PROJECT ran very well to run 2nd in the Railway and from barrier 5 he will get absolutely every chance to win this. He has a 2.75L gap to make up on Scales Of Justice but a 1.5kg weight swing. Whether that is enough to see him turn the tables on the Railway winner, I'm not sure, but he will have no excuses if he can't win.
TRADESMAN is in a similar position to Scales Of Justice in that he carried 53kg in the Railway but has to carry 59kg here. He didn't have a lot of luck in the Railway and I really like this horse. I think the step up to 1800m will help him, as will the significant jockey booking of Dwayne Dunn. In his first two runs this prep he beat Scales Of Justice and ran 3rd to Perfect Reflection under WFA conditions. Whether he is good enough to win this Group 1 at WFA remains to be seen but include him in everything.
The final horse I will mention is STRATUM STAR, who I really think is the X-factor here. He needs to improve, but he ran well behind Redkirk Warrior last start who would be a big chance if he were running in this. Weir seems very, very wary of Perfect Reflection (who he trained for a short time) and admits he needs to improve, but from barrier 1 he'll get a lovely run and you can never discount Weir runners.
Sticking fat with Kawi here; Perfect Reflection best of the locals and Stratum Star the big unknown.
1st KAWI
2nd PERFECT REFLECTION
3rd SCALES OF JUSTICE
4th GOOD PROJECT
Race 9 - PRESETS PERFORMING PERTH CUP - 31 DEC HANDICAP 1400m
Three main chances here for mine. Pretty keen to be on PINZU who should have won last start but was blocked the majority of the straight. Apprentice goes off so goes up 2kg in weight but gets Bowman on board. Barrier 11 will see it drift back but looks ready to win and put the writing on the wall last start. SASSO'S CIRCUS looks set to peak 3rd up from a spell. Has never missed a place at this track and it will be running home down the outside from the wide barrier. YOSHI NOXIOUS draws barrier 1 so should get a soft run in midfield and the blinkers go on for the first time here. Should be around the mark.
Tip: Pinzu
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
