After a solid Round 1, last week started off with a tough couple of days before I finished off my Round 2 tips relatively strongly. Didn't quite make it into profit, but the two-week running tally is in the positive. Hopefully I can add more winners this week with my 2016 AFL Round 3 betting tips. Also don't forget that I have been offering my 2016 Brownlow vote predictions every week, so be sure to check that out!
Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers (Friday, April 8 at 7:20pm AEST)
Until last week, this Friday night clash between the Power and the Bombers looked like it would be of absolutely no interest. Then the Bombers shocked everyone with a victory against Melbourne last week. Most footy fans, myself included, thought there was a real chance the Bombers wouldn't win a game this season. Now, does that mean they can win this game against Port Adelaide? Very unlikely. However, it seems they are going to be more competitive in unexpected games.
Port Adelaide need to make a statement this Friday night. They can't go into this thinking it's going to be easy. They just have to win in front of the home crowd, on the back of a South Australian derby loss by 58 points. We know Port are a better side than the 2016 Essendon team. This is simply one of those rare games that will come to down to the mental state of Port Adelaide. I think they will do what needs to be done, but with Jay Schulz, Hamish Hartlett and Chad Wingard out, Essendon could cover the line.
Tip: Essendon at the line (+50.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, April 9 at 1:45pm AEST)
The first Saturday game of Round 3 sees the Saints and the Magpies take to the MCG. The Pies are coming off that dramatic last-second victory against the Tigers in Round 2, while the Saints couldn't get the job done during Nick Riewodlt's 300th as they were smashed by the Bulldogs.
After their exciting win last week, it's easy to forget the Magpies were defeated by 80 points in Round 1. They certainly bounced back strongly and will be hoping to build on that this week. The Saints, meanwhile, look like they maybe haven’t shown as much improvement on last year as once thought. They still have a very talented young list, but showed us against the Bulldogs last week that they are a step behind. I do think they have a chance to be very competitive in this game though. Steele Sidebottom is still out on suspension and with Dan Swan also on the sideline, I think the Saints win the midfield battle here - especially if you consider how many key outs the Tigers had when the Pies got the win last week. In fact, despite winning, the Magpies were behind on almost all of the key stats last week including disposals, scoring shots and inside 50s. This is a good chance for the Saints to show us what they are made of.
Tip: St Kilda at the line (+16.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, April 9 at 2:10pm AEST)
The Tigers once again disappointed their fans last week with a heart-breaking loss in the dying moments of their clash against the Magpies. Unfortunately I think the Tigers are in for some more disappointment in Round 2 when the face the Crows at Etihad.
It is simply going to be hard for the Tigers to win games against quality teams while they are without Brett Deledio and co. They will be happy to likely have Shane Edwards and Ivan Maric back this week, but that wont be enough to defeat a fully fit Crows. The Tigers let Alex Fasolo kick 6 goals in last week, which I think indicates they are going to have real trouble with the likes of Eddie Betts - not to mention Josh Jenkins and Tom Lynch. The Tigers also let Collingwood score 11 of their 13 goals from turnovers last week. Adelaide will punish them if they use the ball so poorly during Round 3. Richmond's only saving grace is the extra day's break they have leading into this game.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-2.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2.5 units)
Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants (Saturday, April 9 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Sydney derby might not be quite as interested as the SA or WA derbys, but there is certainly more interest than ever with the Giants starting to play some really good football. The Giants are coming off a heroic victory against the Cats last week and will see their confidence at an all-time high. The Swans, meanwhile, have started the season perfectly with easy wins against the Blues and Magpies.
I think this is actually one of the tougher games of the round. Both teams have elite midfields, but the Swans edge the Giants out down forward, especially with Jeremy Cameron still on the sidelines. I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants go the win here, but will be taking some value with the Swans winning in a close one.
Tip: Swans by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, April 9 at 7:25pm AEST)
The Blues head to Metricon this Saturday night to take on a fired up Gold Coast who are coming off a big win against the Dockers. There is no coubt the Suns are playing better football than last year as amazingly it's looking like they will be 3-0 after this game.
The Suns have been moving the ball extremely quick during the first two rounds of the year, with Aaron Hall and Gary Ablett tearing up the midfield, while Tom Lynch has kicked a combined 9 goals down forward. Carlton really struggled last week and I can't see them turning it around up north. Not extremely confident on the five goal line, but happy to have a small play on the Suns to cover.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (-30.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (0.5 units)
West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, April 9 at 5:40pm AWST)
There is no bigger Round 3 game than the western derby. All the chatter around this one is whether or not the Dockers can turn their season around. They have started off horribly, being smashed against the Bulldogs in Round 1 and then losing to the Suns last week. The Eagles, meanwhile are 1-1 after a big opening game victory before struggling against the Hawks last week.
This is one of those situations where I think you have to sit out the betting. There are too many unknown factors. Of course if you go by form alone, the Eagles should win this game. But the Dockers are last year's minor premiers and have to play better footy at some point. What better time than the Derby to show us they are still one of the better teams in the comp? There is a part of me that leans towards Dockers plus the points, but safer to sit this one out and enjoy what should be a massive game.
Tip: No bet
North Melbourne vs Melbourne (Sunday, April 10 at 1:10pm AEST)
The highs and lows of being a Melbourne supporter have already been on display in 2016. In Round 1 they managed a gallant victory over the Giants before shocking everyone by letting the Bombers get the win last week. It will be interesting to see how they bounce back. Ultimately, however, I think they will find it too hard against the Kangaroos.
North Melbourne haven’t lost a game to Melbourne since 2006, winning the last 14 in a row. All signs point to a 15th win with this game being in Tasmania and North showing solid form over the last fortnight. The four-goal line seems just about right (in spit of Melbourne's effort against Essendon), but I do favour North Melbourne to cover.
Tip: North Melbourne at the line (-23.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks (Sunday, April 10 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Bulldogs are the talk of the town, but this weekend we find out if they are the real deal as they take on the mighty Hawks. One big positive for the Bulldogs, if the hype is to be believed, is that this game is at Etihad where they seem unstoppable. Ultimately, however, I don't think where a game is played will worry the experienced Hawks.
The media is talking about this game like its going to be the quickest, highest scoring game we have seen in a long time. The bookies, however, don't have the total points set that high. I do think both teams will adjust to their opponents scoring prowess, but I really think the Bulldogs might only have one gear. Against worst teams than the Hawks that has meant keeping their opponents to low scores as the Bulldogs hold onto the ball and keep scoring. But against the Hawks I think both teams will have bursts of scoring. I think this one is too hard to bet head-to-head (although there might be value with the Hawks), so I’m going to have a play on the total points score.
Tip: Total Points Score Over 180 points - $1.76 at CrownBet (2 units)
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, April 10 at 4:40pm AEST)
The Cats were the darling of the competition after their Round 1 win over the Hawks, but they were humbled a little last week when the Giants defeated them. No doubt that loss will motivate the Cats, so they will be happy to face the Lions this Sunday at Simonds Stadium.
The Lions are in real trouble. They are already missing Dayne Beams and will go into this game without Tom Rockliff. The Lions are also worried about the fitness of Daniel Rich and Mitch Robinson. That is four of their most important players. I don't think the Lions have any chance of winning this game, but the 55-point line is tricky. The Lions have been scoring solidly in their losses this season and Rocky was pretty much missing for more of last week's game and they still scored 83. I lean towards Geelong to cover, but going to be cautious and sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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