Our horse racing expert Tim is back with his latest horse racing betting tips, with a look at the 2015 Geelong Cup. Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the 2015 spring racing season.
William Hill Geelong Cup 2400m
The last couple of years has seen a drop away in quality horses competing in this race but this year seems to have produced a strong field. 4 of the last 5 winners have been International runners and the last 5 straight winners have carried more than 55kg. Those trends have a strong chance of continuing today, with those at the top of the weights looking the hardest to beat.
QUEST FOR MORE: Really talented UK stayer who has finished in the top 2 at his last 5 runs. He's had 5 runs over 2400m for 2 wins and 3 placings. Two starts ago he defeated Max Dynamite and last start finished runner up behind Big Orange with Trip To Paris back in 3rd. Those were over 3200m but that kind of form is clearly good enough for this. His barrier makes life tough today but he still looks very hard to beat.
DANDINO: Runner up in the 2013 Caulfield Cup and missed out on making the field this year but has been showing signs that he is back to his best form. Last start he finished only a length behind Preferment in a Group 1 and that kind of form is outstanding for a race like this. Steps up in trip and blinkers go on for the first time. Very hard to beat.
BONFIRE: Has had two runs back from a spell and comes into this ready to peak 3rd up. Been racing in significantly better races than this and he gives himself every chance today with his on-speed pattern of racing. Prefer those above him but if he finds an easy lead from barrier 2 he will be tough to get past.
GUARDINI: Group 2 winner in Germany over this distance back in May but has since struggled to recapture his best form. Makes his Australian debut for the Freedman stable and all reports suggest he has settled in well here and is working very well. Looks to get a great run from barrier 6 and his best form would be good enough but there are queries on whether he can reproduce that.
SERTORIUS: Normally races well fresh but he hasn't shown much in his first three runs back from a spell. Should be fit now and the blinkers are applied for the first time to sharpen him up; gets a great run from barrier 5 and has no excuses but he hasn't been going well enough.
ALMOONQITH: Interesting runner who has been running well at his past two starts in much harder company. His racing pattern makes it difficult for him as he tends to get back a long way and give away too much of a start, and from barrier 15 that looks the case again. James McDonald booked to ride for Hayes & Dabernig looks a good combination - worth keeping an eye on this horse.
CRAFTY CRUISER: Draws a terrible barrier and has been racing for a long time without a break. Looks outclassed over this distance and isn't going well enough.
ORBEC: Battled on ok in the Metropolitan last start after leading the field and previous to that his form was very good. Blinkers off today and from barrier 1 I'd suspect he would be up on pace but I think they will opt for a sit today instead of leading. Goes well at this distance and can't be discounted.
GENUINE LAD: Put in a blinder three weeks ago in the Naturalism Stakes behind Magnapal but has since tapered. Did a stack of work last start to get outside the leader and from barrier 17 he won't get an easy run. Happy to risk him.
KAPOUR: Another one that had to do too much work last start. Previous to that his form was good in races such as the Grafton Cup but he needs to improve significantly today and is probably looking for a bit of rain.
SONNTAG: Out and out stayer that needs longer than 2400m. Has had three runs back from a break where he has shown nothing and he should be fit and ready to produce a good run, but I think he needs even longer than this trip. Outclassed.
MAYGROVE: Worked home well last start over 2500m and should be at his best at his 4th run back. Stays on the minimum weight of 54kg and gets a nice run from barrier 7 but he'd need to improve a few lengths.
MANNDAWI: Stablemate to Trip To Paris and Red Cadeaux who holds a Group 1 runner up placing to his name in France. Hasn't recaptured that kind of form and the stable thinks he is too close in the weights to Quest For More despite the 5kg difference. Gets a nice run from barrier 3 but not expecting him to feature.
ETHIOPIA: Showed a glimpse of form two starts back but there was big money for him that day. Has since performed poorly and he's not going well enough for this.
RENEW: Ready to produce his best after three runs back from a spell and he did work home well last start. Drawn awkwardly so he will settle back in the field and come home strongly but he needs to improve and isn't as good as the top few in this race.
DE LITTLE ENGINE: Was freshened up after a win over 2600m at Flemington and has had two runs back after his short break. Had to do a stack of work last start and understandably dropped off so his form is inconclusive. Oliver takes the ride and if he can get cover from the wide gate he could feature in the finish.
DON DOREMO: Steps sharply up to the 2400m which is sure to suit him better than what he's been competing in recently but he would need to show a pretty significant turnaround in form to go close to winning.
Summary:
Those near the top of the weights have dominated this race in recent times and most of those have been International runners. I think that trend is set to continue today with QUEST FOR MORE looking incredibly hard to beat despite top weight and the wide barrier. If he can take up a prominent position without too much work his overall quality could prove superior. Holds form over horses such as Max Dynamite and Trip To Paris who we have seen perform well since. DANDINO is a deserved favourite after his slashing run over 2000m behind Preferment. That form is clearly good enough to win this and the step up to 2400m will suit him down to the ground. His odds are a bit short now at $3.50. Behind that there is a big watch on the import GUARDINI who has been working well and will be very competitive if he finds his best form. ALMOONQITH is another horse to watch, while De Little Engine will be ready to show his best and Orbec will be thereabouts.
1st QUEST FOR MORE
2nd DANDINO
3rd ALMOONQITH
4th ORBEC
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
