Studying the form: what are the most important things to consider?

There are plenty of different things to look at on a form guide, and as the digital platform continues to make increasing amounts of information available to punters, it’s no wonder some go with the best name or their lucky number!

Age, class, weight, barrier, jockey, trainer, fitness, track, distance, tempo, running position, gear changes, luck, lead up form, track condition…the list of variables and considerations goes on and on.

But if you’re new to the game or aren’t sure what to look for, these are some of the main things to consider:

Assess the race conditions

The first thing to look at when studying the form of a race is the race conditions. The grade of the race, the distance of the race, and the track conditions are three of the basic yet pivotal factors you need to account for. There’s a big difference between a Benchmark 65 at Wyong and a Group 1 at Randwick so make sure you know just what grade you’re dealing with. The distance is key: is it a sprint (900m-1300m), a middle distance race (1400m-2000m) or a staying contest (2000m+)? Finally, what is the rating of the track? Generally, tracks in Australia will be rated either Good, Soft or Heavy, with Good typically being dry and firm, Heavy being very wet and Soft being somewhere in between.

Recent form

This is generally the first thing a punter will do when looking at a race – skim through the most recent performances of the horses competing. The old adage “winning form is good form” is true more times than not. A horse with consecutive wins is likely to be more appealing than a horse which hasn’t placed in its last few runs, but that doesn’t always tell the whole story. Make sure to check the distance a horse has been beaten when looking at recent performances. The form guide may say the horse finished 8^th of 12 last start, but it may have only been beaten by a length in a blanket finish.

It’s also important to consider what grade a horse has been winning in (or losing in) compared to what they are racing in this time. For example, a horse that won his last start in a BM70 at Pakenham may not have a better chance than a horse which finished 5^th in a Group 3 last start, particularly if that horse was only beaten by a couple of lengths. If that horse is now dropping back in grade to a BM70, suddenly the 5^th placing in Group 3 company looks good.

Also be wary of any possible reasons for a horse’s poor performance at its previous start if it was performing well previous to that. There are always cases where a favoured runner will finish back in the field but may pull up with a lame leg, or may have a case of bad luck during the race – these comments can be found in most good form guides and are often labelled “forgive” runs.

Track and distance

This is a big one. Most form guides will tell you a horse’s record over the distance of the race it is in. Just because a horse is a sprinter doesn’t mean it is just as good at 1200m as it is at 1000m, and just because a horse is good at 1200m doesn’t mean it can run a strong 1400m. For example, a horse may be running reasonably well over 1200m at its past few starts but it’s record at 1400m is 4:0-0-0, indicating it has never placed from four attempts at the distance. On the contrary, a horse may be competing over a distance where it is undefeated, which is obviously a good sign.

Similarly, keep an eye on horses stepping up (or sometimes dropping back) in distance. If a horse has won three races in its career and all of them have been over 2000m, it’s probably not going to be any good over 1000m. If it has been improving at each of its last few starts and finally gets to a distance it has succeeded at before, that’s a good sign that it is ready to win again. Or a horse that has won several races over 1600m but performed poorly over 2000m may be stepping back to 1600m – an indication that the horse didn’t ‘stay’ the trip and is more effective over a shorter distance. 

How far into its preparation is it?

This is another factor that most amateur punters will wrongly overlook.

Some horses need one, two or even three runs back from a break before they start to peak. In most cases this will be the stayers, which won’t be effective until they are fit enough to compete over the longer distances, but sometimes the sprinters need a few runs back to find their fitness and rhythm. Some horses perform better when they are fresh from a break and trainers will keep their runs spaced and their preparations short.

Detailed form guides will have a horse’s 1^st up 2^nd up and maybe even 3^rd up record (if a horse is having its first run back from a break, it is 1^st up, and so on). If a horse is 4/4 first up from a spell and it’s having its first run back, chances are it is going to be competitive. If a horse is having its first run back and it’s never placed at its first run back from a spell, it may be better to wait until later in its preparation.

One horse that comes to my mind is a horse called Tower Of Lonhro, which is based in Western Australia. The horse has a reasonable 1^st up (10:3-1-1) and 2^nd up (8:1-2-1) record, but it’s when he got to his third run back from a spell that he was most effective. His 3^rd up record is 6:4-1-0, which was unblemished until he competed in one of the Group 1 races at the end of last year. So if a horse with a record such as that is having its third run back from a spell, it normally means get on!

Other things to consider

A few other factors to consider when weighing up a horse’s chances:

·       Track: “horses for courses” is a common racing phrase. Some horses perform well on specific tracks and don’t perform as well on others. Be sure to make note of the horse’s record on the track its racing on.

·       Trainer/jockey: Jockey more so than trainer, but certain combinations are a good indicator. For example, Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller is probably as good as it gets. Additionally, if a horse has performed reasonably well at its previous start, but gets the booking of a leading jockey this time, that is a flashing light. It often happens in the West with William Pike.

·       Track condition: It only really matters if the track is wet (Soft 6 or worse, normally). Some horses are 5 lengths better on a rain-affected track, and some just don’t go at all. Be sure to check the horse’s record on the specific surface rating.

·       Weight/barrier: important for those that delve deeper into the study of a race, but generally low barrier draws are best and as the old saying goes, “weight will stop a train”.

·       Gear changes: two of the most successful gear changes are blinkers on for the first time, or a gelding operation. There’s plenty of cases of horses winning at their first start back from a gelding operation as it makes them settle. Blinkers are used to sharpen a horse up and focus their attention and are often successful when put on a horse for the first time.

·       Race replays are very useful if you have the time – it can help you decide if the horse was unlucky or if the horse was finishing off the race well, in which case it may be ready to win. 

·       Finally, the market rarely lies. Keep an eye on odds fluctuations – if a horse opens as $3.00 favourite and drifts out to $7.00, it’s generally a pretty good sign that it won’t win. If a horse is backed in from $5.00 to $2.00, you can be sure someone knows something and the money is normally spot on.