Saturday Horse Racing: Memsie Stakes Preview

August 28th 2015, 4:01pm, By: tim_tips

Some cracking races in store for horse racing fans on Saturday with Memsie Stakes Day to take centre stage at Caulfield. Our resident horse racing expert Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season. 

New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes 1400m - WFA Group 1

What a race we have here. 9 of the 16 horses that have gained a start in this race come into this first up from a spell, and while it's good to see the fast horses show their face again, it makes things very tough to work out! We have a good mix of middle distance horses and resuming stayers here that kick of their campaigns here in the lead up to the bigger Spring riches in the months to come. There are seven Group 1 winners in the field and some fresh talent that will be looking to stamp their mark on the WFA Group 1 scene. Let's preview each runner.

HAPPY TRAILS returned with a nice run in a Group 3 over 1200m in Adelaide 3 weeks ago. Finished the race off well and the step up to 1400m will no doubt help. Has 5 placings from 10 starts when 2nd up from a spell, but he probably needs 1600-2000m to be a realistic winning chance, especially against a field this good.

BOBAN returned to his best last preparation when he won the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 first up before carrying 58kg in the Stradbroke and still running super to finish 2nd. Those races were both over 1350m so the 1400m should pose no problem, even though he comes into this first up from a 3 month spell. Draws well in barrier 5, has won over this course before and if he returns as good as he did last prep then he will win. Only concern for him is the possibility of a wet track; he needs it Good 4 at worst.

TEMPLE OF BOOM was backed off the map first up when finishing 3rd behind Burbero and Weary in the Missile Stakes at Randwick. His 2nd up form isn't fantastic and the 1400m has tested him throughout his career so I'd prefer to go with others here.

DANDINO returns from a 12 month spell. Has his first start for Darren Weir but is a stayer looking for 2400m and beyond. Interesting to see how he progresses going forward towards the Cups in the Spring, but not a winning chance here.

SMOKIN' JOEY failed last start as favourite in the PB Lawrence Stakes but was found to have internal bleeding post-race. We can completely forgive that run and look to his previous win in the Bletchingly Stakes over 1200m at this track. 1400m is no problems but whether he is good enough against these top level Group 1 horses is the question. If he returns to his best he is a place chance.

SERTORIUS is another that returns from a spell. Only had the two starts in the Autumn where he ran 2nd to Suavito over 1600m before winning a Group 3 over 2000m at this track. The 1400m is probably a bit on the short side for him but he does have a fantastic first up record (10:2-5-0) and doesn't mind the sting out of the track. If he is met with support in the market you can be sure he will run a big race.

WEARY must rate as a huge chance in this off the back of his return behind Burbero in the Missile Stakes 3 weeks ago. Was well backed late and absolutely flew home to just miss. That was over 1200m so the 1400m today will suit him much better. Goes reasonably well 2nd up from a break and the only concern is the horrible barrier he has drawn. The sting out of the track will help him so expect him to be flying home.

PRINCE OF PENZANCE also resumes off a decent spell. Group 2 quality stayer that will be going round for fitness. Needs 2400m and beyond.

ENTIRELY PLATINUM could give this a real shake at around the $10 mark. He too comes into this first up, and his first up run last campaign was outstanding when he finished 2nd to Dissident over this same track and distance. He beat home the likes of Mourinho that day which has proved to be great form. Great record over the 1400m, and the Soft 5-6 track won't bother him. Draws perfectly so expect him to go forward and be hard to run down.

VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL is the 4YO Kiwi and winner of the Rosehill Guineas in the Autumn. Never missed a place in his career and comes into this first up from a spell and on a path towards the Cox Plate. Should be ridden cold from the bad barrier and the stable have said they would be rapt if he sneaked into a place. We will see him at his best at 2000m+ so probably more of a place chance in this.

MAGICOOL won the Queensland Derby at his latest outing and has been off the track for 3 months. Should find the big guns too slick over 1400m first up here.

PETROLOGY has failed to deliver so far this prep and has absolutely no excuses in this race today. Comes into this at his 3rd run back from a break so should be at peak fitness and gets the blinkers back on today to switch him on. Drawn nicely but does tend to get back so that might make things tough for him. Never placed over this distance and only has 3 placings from 7 runs at this track. Looking elsewhere today.

HI WORLD won three races in a row up in Sydney during the Autumn, ranging from 1600m to 2000m. They were all on wet tracks so the query is if he can perform as well on dry tracks this time of year. Did finish 4th behind Kermadec in the Group 3 Carbine Club in Melbourne last Spring, although Stratum Star comfortably beat him in that race. Draws the inside gate and will be up on pace so should be thereabouts, and if the rain keeps coming he comes further into calculations.

SETINUM resumed with an impressive win first up over 1200m last start at big odds but has his work cut out for him here in a WFA Group 1 race against some very good horses. The horror barrier draw does him no favours.

RISING ROMANCE is yet another that comes into this first up. Recorded a great win 1st up in New Zealand last prep before finishing 2nd in both the Group 1 NZ Stakes over 2000m and the Group 3 Epona Stakes over 1900m in Sydney. I suspect she will find this a bit on the short side but it is her first start for David Hayes & Tom Dabernig so it will be very interesting to see how she performs.

STRATUM STAR ran a massive race first up behind Setinum over 1200m here two weeks ago. Has a better 2nd up record and will have taken great benefit from that run. His only run over 1400m at this track was a win, and his record over 1400m reads superbly overall (5:2-1-1). Performs well on all surfaces and the form he holds behind Wandjina and Disposition at this distance is very much good enough to win this race.

Summary

What a race this is, and made tougher by the fact that 9 of the 16 horses in this race are resuming from spells. BOBAN returned to his best form in Brisbane and if he carries that into this race he will prove mighty hard to beat. Drawn well and should find the 1400m ideal but the big concern is the wet track. He will need it Good 4 at the worst. ENTIRELY PLATINUM ran 2nd to Suavito when he was 1st up over 1400m here last prep, and he will be up on speed and give a good sight once again. STRATUM STAR ran a cracker first up and comes into this with a really good chance. His form behind Wandjina is plenty good enough to win this, while WEARY gets a terrible barrier but also ran a cracker first up and will be flashing home. RISING ROMANCE and VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL will be looking for further but are definite place chances given their overall quality, while Hi World will want the rain to keep falling to enhance his chances. SERTORIUS always runs well fresh and likes a soft track so he is one at big odds that can run a place.

If the track is a Good 4:

1st BOBAN ($5.00 at Sportsbet)
2nd STRATUM STAR
3rd ENTIRELY PLATINUM
4th WEARY
5th SERTORIUS

If the track is Soft 5 or worse:

1st STRATUM STAR($10 at Betfair)
2nd WEARY
3rd ENTIRELY PLATINUM
4th SERTORIUS
5th BOBAN

* prices correct at time of posting

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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