The 2023 Rugby World Cup is set to get underway in France from Saturday, September 9th. 20 nations will be competing for the ultimate prize, being names world champions. There are a ton of betting markets to sort through and plenty of value to be found, which is why expert Jim Tucker is here to provide his thoughts and expert analysis.
Check out Jim’s best bets below and make sure to head over to our Rugby Tips page regularly as he’ll be providing previews and best bets for the key games over the next three weeks!
2023 Rugby World Cup Preview & Betting Tips
Those outside rugby rarely understand how big the Rugby World Cup actually is with crowds topping 45,000-plus, on average, for every game across the tournament. What is unfolding in France over seven weeks is big in every sense... high stakes, big pressure, soaring successes and undignified flops. Let’s get to it. Who wins? How do the Wallabies fare? Who is going to score a bunch of tries?
Basically, you start any World Cup this way. The All Blacks are favourites. Is there any chance of them being knocked off? The answer is very different this time. This is the most open World Cup since the first edition in 1987. In part, that is because other nations have caught the All Blacks, at least on a given day. Since the 2019 World, Cup, world No.1 Ireland has beaten the Kiwis three times. The South Africans have done it three times, the French and Wallabies have had one success as well. Argentina has upset the All Blacks for the first time... and done it twice.
The World Rankings list Ireland (1), South Africa (2), France (3), NZ (4), Scotland (5), Argentina (6), Fiji (7), England (8), Australia (9) and Wales (10) as the top 10. That’s a seriously competitive top tier for the code.
What does the draw tell us with the 20 teams divided into four pools of five? The top five nations in the world are all crowded into Pool A and B which means three of the best teams in the world will be savagely cut before the semi-finals. As South Africa proved in 2019 and the Wallabies did in 1999, you don't even have to beat the All Blacks to win the World Cup. Another nation will do it for you if you are lucky.
The relatively serene side of the draw for Pool C and D means the Wallabies, Wales, England, Argentina and Fiji are fighting for two semi-finals spots. Japan or Samoa may conjure an upset in pool play on this side of the draw. TAB has the market for World Cup champion sorted this way: NZ $3.75, France $4.25, South Africa $4.50 and Ireland $5.50.
I’m tipping the French to be crowned World Cup champions. They thrive in front of their home crowds, they have a pedigree for big results at the World Cup (knocking out the All Blacks in 1999 and 2007), they have reached three finals before and they have the most influential player in the world at halfback, Antoine Dupont.
The World Cup opener between France and NZ at the sold-out Stade de France (5.15am Sat, AEST) is the most incredible scene-setter. The same two sides could be back playing in a final in October.
Forget the Kiwis losing 35-7 to South Africa in that recent warm-up Test. That’s all it was. Don’t mark down the Kiwis. Mark up the Springboks for that one. The Boks won in 2019 with their kicking policy at the forefront. They have added far more attacking sparkle since with wingers Canan Moodie and Kurt-Lee Arendse rising as weapons beside Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi.
The South Africans look very dangerous. I fancy them to dominate Pool B and beat Ireland. That will throw enormous pressure on the Irish for an all-or-nothing clash against Scotland. Only the winner will advance to the quarter-finals.
The Irish, as good as they are, are the nation with the least World Cup pedigree of the top bunch. They could freeze on this stage, lose to the Scots and be heading home early.
The Kiwis, the French and South Africans... that’s the cluster to follow for the winner.
The Wallabies have a dream draw and they need it coming in with a 0-5 record. Eddie Jones and his team could well beat Georgia, Fiji, Wales and Portugal in pool play to grab the confidence of a 4-0 run before facing England or Argentina in the quarter-finals. Jones knows the English set-up inside out and a match-up against old mate Michael Chieka and Argentina is in his wheelhouse as well. Making the semi-finals is the pass mark for the Wallabies at this World Cup. Don’t hear otherwise.
Upsets: There are going to be some for sure. Japan knocking off South Africa in 2015 was exceptional so too Tonga upsetting France in 2011. There is a storied history of World Cup upsets. For 2023, you don’t have to look further than Fiji v Wales in Bordeaux on opening weekend (5am Mon, AEST). The Fijians are $2.50 (TAB) in this. The weather is tipped to be a scorching 35 which plays right into the hands of the islanders. They have gained confidence in the build-up with the upset of England. Their top players playing in Europe and Super Rugby Pacific has added some consistency to the pack so the backs can fly. Playing the Fijians first up is a nightmare scenario for the poorly-performing Welsh.
Top Try-scorer: This is always a puzzle. History tells us it’s going to be a winger and seven tries all-up is going to be about the number. Wales’ Josh Adams (seven) topped the 2019 list and Kiwi Julian Savea (eight) did so in 2015.
You have to look for a winger from a team likely to play six games at least, a semi-final team.
I also like to look for the handful of outgunned nations and factor in a hat-trick that day for a top winger running riot against them.
On those calculations, I think the top tryscorer will be French or a Kiwi because they have the best chance of running up big scores against minnow Namibia, Uruguay and even Italy in pool play.
The one hiccup is always that the Kiwis or French will rest their top players from one of those mismatches. Wallaby Chris Latham played only once at the 2003 tournament, scored five against Namibia in Adelaide and was right up in the Top Tryscorer list until the end.
At TAB, look at Mark Telea ($9), Caleb Clarke ($12), Leicester Fainga’anuku ($15) or Damian Penaud ($8) for Top Tournament Tryscorer which is ignoring try-a-Test Will Jordan ($7). I prefer Telea as a Top 3 Tryscorer at $6. For the Wallabies, Mark Nawaqanitawase ($4.50) as top tryscorer in Pool C matches is a sound steer.
France to Win World Cup
$4.25
