The track is rated a Heavy 8 and the rail is out 2m for the nine-race card.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips below!
Best Bet: Race 5 - (4) Roheryn
Best Value: Race 8 - (6) Knowitall Jack
(1) Frosty Rocks was a dominant winner at Warwick Farm last start, cruising to the front and leaving her rivals for dead, posting an 8.3L margin in the process. On that performance, she should be able to account for these. My main query is the fact Bjorn Baker has a phenomenal strike rate on his home track at Warwick Farm, so it’s no surprise that Frosty Rocks’s two wins this prep have been on her home track. Coming to Rosehill today is a different ball-game but if she can find the front, she’ll be the one to beat. (4) Academy looks value at $8.50. He didn’t deliver last preparation but he resumed with a solid win at Wyong, and there’s already been two horses come out of that race and win. He’s two from two on soft ground so I don’t have many concerns with the ground, and with the lack of depth in the field, he has to be included.
(9) Sebago is only lightly-raced with six career starts but he’s a horse on the up and comes off a solid win at Port Macquarie. He’s undefeated on heavy ground which gives him a little edge as there’s plenty which haven’t ticked that box. Tommy Berry rides from barrier 10 and he could be one at each way odds to have something on in what looks a very open race. (11) Acquittal is a non-winner but he should find the lead and give a sight third up from a spell. This is generally when he peaks. (7) Rothenburg gets JMac on and blinkers on, so expect a good showing from barrier 1. (18) Dream Runner comes into this undefeated but there must be some queries about the form as he only beat Lord Desanimaux last time out.
Very strange that we see a horse coming off a win in the Grand Annual Steeplechase over 5500m at Warrnambool and lining up here in a flat race over 3200m, but that’s the case with (2) Ablaze and he’s probably your winner too. He’s airborne this horse and he did win a 3000m flat race at Moonee Valley three starts ago. There really isn’t any depth to this race at all so he can continue on his winning ways. (7) Loveseat looks the danger if any.
(12) Zing comes into this off back-to-back wins at Newcastle and Warwick Farm and I think she can make it three on the bounce here. The step up to 1800m won’t be a problem and nor will the ground as both wins have been on wet tracks. She drops to 53.5kg and from barrier 6 we may even see her settle a touch closer to the speed. She looks a good bet at $6.00. (14) Fulmina was the horse Zing beat last start and it was only narrowly, so with a slight swing in the weights today Fulmina is definitely a live chance. (16) Word For Word has suddenly become a line-chaser in her past two starts, and both of those races have been good form references I think. She carries 60kg today but she should still be hard to beat. (11) Azarmin can be included at huge odds.
(4) Roheryn is a horse I think you can only back once in a preparation and that’s first up. He’s undefeated from three starts when first up and resumes today with JMac going straight on. His only prior start at this track and distance was the infamous race where Josh Parr gave him no mathematical chance of winning as the $1.50 pop. He handles wet ground and looks the one to beat. (3) Embracer is the danger, also coming into this first up. He had five starts last prep and finished in the top two in four of them, which included three wins. He won at this track and distance in one of those and that was on heavy ground so there’s no reason he can’t be very competitive.
I’m not sure what you can tip in this race with any sort of confidence at all but I’m taking on the Waller brigade with (12) Attention Run. The obvious concern is he’s none from three when second up from a spell, but I was impressed by the nature of his first up victory and he’s somewhat of the new kid on the block taking on horses that go around every other week. Conditions will be no issue and he drops to 53kg so I’ll take the punt on him. (13) Primitivo can improve off his first up run. He’s placed in four of his five starts when second up and seemingly goes well on wet ground. (1) Wu Gok is flying but has to do it again today carrying 61kg, however he obviously is the best wet tracker in the field. (4) Carzoff was only beaten a nose by Wu Gok last start and gets a small weight swing so has to be included. He’s placed in all five starts on heavy ground.
The move from 1600m back to 1350m is a query but (3) Sambro goes on top. Waller is about the only trainer I’d trust to drop a horse back in distance like this. His lead up runs have been good and JMac goes on. The query is the fact it’s been 107 weeks since his last win. (8) Trumbull would probably win this if he jumped out of the gates with them but he’s got a very bad habit of missing the kick and it’s impossible to tip him with that in mind. (9) Mushaireb is one to include first up. The stable is absolutely flying and the horse ran 2nd to Ranier first up last prep over this track and distance. That’s good form for a race like this. The only query is whether he will be at his best on the heavy track. (1) Home Of The Brave will be right there but he’s another horse that struggles to win.
Two horses I’m pretty keen to back here. (2) Night Of Power started favourite first up which was wrong as he was always going to improve significantly second up. He’s had three starts when second up for two wins and a 2nd. JMac retains the ride and he looks quite clearly the horse to beat. With that said, there’s no way he should be $2.90 and (6) Knowitall Jack should be $11. They crossed the line together in the same race first up and they meet at the same weights today. Knowitall Jack is similar to Night Of Power in that he typically improves considerably second up, with two wins from three starts. He should lead here and be very hard to run down.
Race 9 (Market)
(5) Kordia is first up from a year off the track and he takes on the older horses here. He’s ran 2nd on debut before winning his next two starts. He might be a little bit too classy here but he’ll need to be pretty sharp first up on the heavy ground. (12) Accelerato looks the value at $7.00. He comes off a midweek win but can make the step up here. He goes well third up and the wet ground is what really brings him into it. From the good draw he should be competitive.
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