Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, July 25th.
The Listed Winter Challenge headlines the card at Rosehill this Saturday, with nine races on what is likely to be a heavy track. The rail moves to the 8m position so on-pacers could be favoured early.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, July 25th
Best Bet: Race 6 – (3) Travest
Best Value: Race 4 – (5) Time To Reign
Tough way to start the day. What do we do with (7) Hot ‘N’ Hazy? He comes up favourite resuming from a spell with a 14L trial win under the belt which set everyone alight, including his trainer Danny Williams, who said he might be the best horse he’s trained in a decade. But the fact remains he’s only won a Wagga maiden, so this is a big leap into a deep 2YO race in the city. Don’t be surprised to see him drift late as the market looks to oppose him. (2) Smart Image did a good job to win on debut, coming from back in the field at Warwick Farm to run down Beyliks. The query there is the form around Beyliks, which isn’t exactly strong. But this horse has plenty of room to improve and Bowman goes on from the good gate. (10) Shaik won on debut at Newcastle and then ran well behind North Pacific, who looks a major contender in some of Sydney’s bigger races on the horizon. I trust that will be a very strong formline. (1) Lady Banff started $5.50 in that same race but was trapped three-wide the trip. Forgive her for that.
I see this being fought out by the two Waller runners, with the only concern being that both are first up from a spell on what will be a sticky track. Leaning to (9) Willowheart who is undefeated from two starts when first up from a spell. Nash has ridden her in both of those but Tommy Berry gets the nod today and she tends to race right up on the speed. She’s won on heavy ground before and I’d expect her to run very well. (8) Super Oasis won on her first run for the Waller stable but failed to fire in two subsequent starts. She’s another with a terrific first up record, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. The big query for her is the wet track as she’s never raced on heavy ground and failed in both starts on soft ground. (4) In Lighten Me was a good first up winner and goes close again.
Another Highway Handicap, another headache. Two horses at each way odds will be the way I play here, in what looks a really open race. (10) Mo’s Glory has never run a place first up from a spell but he has won second up, so I’d expect sharp improvement on what he showed fresh at Mudgee. He’s one from one on wet ground so conditions should suit and he’s a good price at $15. (12) Delayed Response is a similar case. He’s only got two 3rd placings from four starts when first up, but he has a win and a 3rd from three starts when second up, so he should improve. The winner of the race he ran in first up then went to the city in Brisbane and won again, making it three straight, so the form is strong. He draws well and looks big odds at $21. (9) Zakeriz ran 2nd in a similar race last start and we know he handles heavy ground, but the jockey booking is some query for mine.
Value: (12) Delayed Response $21
(6) Roheryn was my best bet of the day last start and duly saluted, but I noted on that occasion that I think he’s a first up horse. Not to say he can’t win this, but I think he’s best fresh and may be vulnerable here. (1) Special Reward returns from a spell with the 3kg claim for Louise Day. He’s undefeated on soft ground and the form around Southern Lad, Cascadian, Jungle Edge et al looks good for a race like this. I think the value in the race is (5) Time To Reign. He was poor first up but he had excuses, trapped wide throughout the race. He’s trialled again since and he’s got two wins from three starts at the track and distance, so I’ll give him another chance to bounce back at big odds here. (2) Glenall resumes from a spell and must be included with Bowman on from the inside gate.
Value: (5) Time To Reign $20
Really not very keen to bet here but (1) Korcho goes on top after he broke through for his first Australian win over 2000m last start. He didn’t get much luck the start prior to that and he will only keep improving with racing over here. It’s his first go at 2400m but he’s probably the least exposed horse in the race. Waller’s duo (3) Desert Path and (5) Birth Of Venus deserve plenty of respect in this sort of race.
The query here is how far back (3) Travest gets from his inside barrier. I suspect they will try and be a bit more positive today after Tommy got too far back last time out. His run was still very good and the horse that won has since come out and won again. This is the first time in his career he’s drawn low, so we’ll find out if he has any tactical speed. Either way, I think he’s quite clearly the horse to beat and I think the price is reasonable at $3.60. (6) Dancing Gidget was dominant first up and can go well again with the good draw and Bowman on board. (7) Papal Warrior is racing well and draws the inside gate so has claims.
Hardest race of the day and not keen to get too involved. (4) Order Again now has his fourth run for the Waller stable and he’s been knocking on the door in recent starts. The rail in the 8m position makes it harder for him but Waller runners usually peak around this stage of their prep so today could be his day. (3) Mugatoo could be the best horse in the race but first up at 1500m in a Listed race is going to be a tough assignment. This is well short of his best distance and he’d need to be pretty good to beat this field. His class may get him over the line but I have to risk him under the circumstances. (1) Taikomochi ran well first up and the rail position helps him as he’ll be the likely leader, but he does tend to mix his form and has run very ordinarily second up in the past after a good fresh run. (6) Noble Boy next best.
The market looks to have this pretty spot on, but I’ll be in the corner of (9) Outback Diva at the current prices. She produced a big effort winning here two starts ago, and then ran well in defeat last time out when caught three-wide the trip. She drops to 50kg after Louise Day’s claim today and in her current form, she should take plenty of beating with even luck. (2) Prime Candidate looks primed to go close third up from a spell. He ran fairly first up behind Roheryn and then improved last start when 2nd to Inanup, despite covering ground three-wide throughout. Drawn well in barrier 4 here, goes well third up, won his only start at the distance and should be very competitive. (1) True Detective was four weeks between runs last start and can bounce back.
(5) Varda looks quite clearly the one to beat here. She’s returned in terrific order, with two dominant wins from as many starts. She led all the way and posted a 5L margin first up at Canterbury, and there was a slight query about that given the track pattern on the day, but she put any doubt to bed last start when sitting outside the leader here at Rosehill and scoring another convincing win. Both wins have been on heavy ground so she’ll handle the conditions. She’ll slide across from barrier 10 to take up a position on speed and even though there does look to be a decent tempo, she’s the one to beat again. (3) Prairie Fire has been racing well all prep without much luck and comes out of some decent form races. He’ll appreciate a decent tempo here and can run well again. (8) Zaniah ran well first up and then pulled up with a slow recovery last time out behind Varda so can bounce back here.
