The 2026 AFL Finals Series continues with the Elimination Final at the MCG on Friday night as fifth-placed Geelong host the hottest team in the competition in Carlton. Draftstars are offering $70,000 in guaranteed prize money in their main daily fantasy tournament.
This is a genuine clash of styles and momentum. The cats finished fifth on the ladder and have the experience but they will concede the home ground advantage to their opponents with the game being played at a sold out MCG. The Blues arrive as arguably the most dangerous side in September after winning eight of their last ten, including a stunning upset of Melbourne last week in the Wildcard Final.
The Blues are surging. The Cats have been steady. Something’s going to give.
Geelong have made meaningful changes, welcoming back star half-back Max Holmes from injury and veteran Mark Blicavs to bolster their midfield-ruck depth. Holmes’ return is the most significant fantasy news on the Cats’ side — he goes straight back into a role that generated some of the best half-back scoring in the competition before his injury. Carlton have made just one change with Derksen replacing the injured Haynes. The Blues go in with their best side and their confidence is sky-high after beating Melbourne. This has all the hallmarks of a classic finals matchup.
Draftstars are offering a number of different contests to suit your style, some of these include:
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AFL $70,000+ Elimination Final at Draftstars
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AFL $7,500+ Elimination Final High Roller ($150 Entry) at Draftstars
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AFL $3,000+ Elimination Final Mini ($2 Entry) at Draftstars
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AFL $1,500+ Elimination Final Micro (50c Entry) at Draftstars
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Elimination Final – Geelong vs Carlton
AFL Fantasy Elimination Final – Where to Attack?
Let me start with the number that defines this entire slate. Geelong have been giving up over 19 points above league average to the ruck — the highest ruck concession in the entire competition and one of the most extreme numbers across all positions so there is a play we can almost lock in right off the bat.
Breaking down the other positions, it is no surprise to see that Carlton have been one of the hardest teams to score fantasy points against over the last ten games given how they have performed. During this stretch, they are restricting opposition defenders, midfielders and forwards to essentially the lowest fantasy scores in the league. This rings true with the fact they are also possessing the ball more than their opponents. So really this comes down to whether you think the Blues will be able to keep up this form against the Cats or whether it all comes crashing down this week. I will be leaning to Carlton stacks, but the betting markets have the Cats as just over 9-point favourites.
If you are looking to load up the Blues, there are obvious plays everywhere according to the data. Firstly, the inside midfielders, where the Cats have been giving up over 3 points per game above league average, which is the third most in the league. I love this play for the Blues midfielders who have been straight up dominant in the middle of the ground. Even when they were struggling early in the year, they were still able to dominate around the stoppages. Once they get it moving forward, the Cats also have trouble with general forwards, giving up over 3 points per game above league average.
The one area to avoid against the Cats is backs as Geelong have been one of the stingiest teams to designated kickers and attacking half backs/wings.
Game Script – Carlton ruck, midfielders and forwards, Cats backs (based on this game script)
AFL Fantasy Elimination Final – Our Value Fantasy Picks
Oisin Mullin ($7,990) looks to be one of the top options for a cheap value play on this slate. He is attending over 50% of the Cats centre bounces towards the end of the season and will likely get a role on someone in the Blues midfield. This has resulted in consistent floor scores of 60+ and upside of over 80 that will be a great result in a single game final for a value play.
Ben Ainsworth ($10,750) is the Carlton forward play for those wanting a cheaper forward option alongside the premium mids. He just posted 100 and 105 in back-to-back games putting him in the form of his life. As noted above, the Cats are giving up above average points to general forwards and this makes Ainsworth the perfect play in the Blues stacks.
AFL Fantasy Elimination Final – Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Marc Pittonet ($11,170) is the mid-price lock of this slate and the case has already been made above. Geelong have been giving up nearly 20 points above league average to rucks. His last three scores are 54, 71 and 88 for an average of 71 — modest recent form that has his price well below what his matchup opportunity demands. It is all about the matchup on this slate though. He should dominate the ruck stocks Geelong are lining up with and we have seen this season that Pittonet has the upside of over 100 points in the right contest.
Shaun Mannagh ($11,990) has been in the form of his season over the last three weeks and his most recent score of 139 last week is the standout performance from any Geelong player in recent weeks. He has posted 139, 100 and 84 for a last-three average of 107.7 and the big watch is on his centre bounce attendances as he has been moving up into the midfield the last two games (attending 70% last week and 36% the week before). If this trend continues in this matchup, he would be an absolute lock at this price. Top make things better, his two most recent games against Carlton have produced 82 and 118.
AFL Fantasy Elimination Final – Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Patrick Cripps ($14,130) is the second Carlton premium co-lock and his three most recent games against Geelong have produced 93, 131 and 115, clearly taking advantage of the Cats struggles with dominant inside mids around the stoppages. His last three scores of 77, 95 and 107 show a player building in form week by week, with that 107 the most recent and the directional arrow pointing up heading into finals. Pair him with Walsh for the full Carlton midfield premium double stack.
Sam Walsh ($15,000) is the Carlton premium lock and the most consistent performer in this fixture of any player on the slate. He has posted 125, 100 and 114 in his last three for an average of 113 and his three most recent games against Geelong have produced 109, 97 and 113 — three scores between 97 and 113 in this exact fixture, a floor of 97 in an elimination final. Geelong are conceding above average to inside midfielders and Walsh’s clearance work and disposal volume in a finals atmosphere at the MCG generates his best football. At $15,000 he is the first Carlton name written down for me.
Here is our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for the Cats vs Blues Elimination Final
Weather Report for the Elimination Final
MCG (Melbourne) — 11 degrees, clear. Perfect September conditions for an elimination final at the MCG.
AFL Betting Markets – Elimination Final
Geelong ($1.57) vs Carlton ($2.41)
Line: Geelong -9.5
Points: 168.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Friday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
