Two struggling sides get a rare opportunity for a win when Richmond and Essendon face off in the AFL on Saturday night. The Tigers will be desperate to get a win in Nick Vlaustin’s 250th, but which side will break their losing streak?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Tigers vs Bombers below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Richmond vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 18
One Last Chance?
Richmond’s losing streak was extended to seven games after their expected defeat against Geelong last week, and it’s starting to get ugly for the young Tigers. Richmond’s last four games have seen defeats by margins of 72, 68, 79 and 44 points, as they have appeared to have run out of steam after a spirited start. However if there’s any game they should be able to get themselves up for, it's a game against the most depleted side in the competition who is on a five game losing streak. Richmond gave Essendon a serious run for their money earlier in the season, and they should be buoyed by having a red hot chance of winning.
No Relief In Sight
Essendon’s injury issues haven’t gotten any better, with Jye Caldwell out of the side after suffering a syndesmosis injury in Round 17. The Bombers will get some respite with Mason Redman returning, but have the largest injury list in the competition. Essendon showed a lot last week matching it right up to the Suns last week, before falling away in the last quarter. Zach Merrett was back to his best with 41 disposals, while young key forwards Nate Caddy and Archer May showed plenty, kicking 3 goals each. With Noah Balta out of the side due to his curfew, Caddy, May and Peter Wright will need to stretch Richmond’s defence if they are going to win this game.
The Stats That Matter
It’s no surprise both of these teams have struggled to score this season, with Essendon ranked 16th (72 points per game) and Richmond ranked 18th (67 points per game). One area that Essendon does excel at is finding the footy, ranking 1st in the AFL for disposals. Richmond ranks 17th for disposals and 18th for tackles, and if they let Essendon chip the ball around and the Tigers can’t get any heat on the footy, it’s going to be tough for Richmond to win.
Both teams have been scored against heavily from turnovers, Essendon have conceded an average of 69 points from turnover across their last five games, while Richmond have conceded an average of 66 points from turnover in that same timespan. The difference between the two sides is that the Bombers have still managed to generate their own scores from turnover, producing 3 games of 50+ points scored from turnover in their last five games. Richmond haven’t scored above 45 points from turnover in a game since Round 10.
Tigers or Bombers? Here’s our Richmond vs Essendon Tip
Given it’s Richmond’s best chance to win a game for the remainder of the season, along with it being Nick Vlaustin’s 250th game, you can expect a spirited Richmond side to come out firing. If Essendon can weather the storm early, control possession and bring the pressure they brought last week against the Suns, they should be able to wear down the Tigers over four quarters.
The Bombers kicked 5.6 from stoppages against Richmond earlier this season, and if they can generate 11 shots at goal they are going to be hard to stop. This game will likely play out in a similar manner as the matchup in Round 11, Richmond will hang around for three to three and a half quarters, before the Bombers breakaway late in the game. Essendon’s biggest win this season is 39 points, while their other five wins have come by margins of 12, 2, 3, 8 and 23 points.
Essendon 1-39
$2.05 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs Essendon Prop Bet: Mayday
Our Best Prop Bet: May 2+ Goals
After being selected by the Bombers in the Mid Season Draft, Archer May has made a big impact. In his last two games May has kicked 3 and 2 goals, with a stunning run of play in the third quarter last week. With no Noah Balta, Richmond are undersized in defence, meaning May should get a favourable matchup on a small defender.
Archer May 2+ Goals
$2.05
Richmond vs Essendon Same Game Multi
Zach Merrett 30+ Disposals: Zach Merrett went back to the midfield after spending time at half back and half forward over the last month, and he delivered in spades with 40 disposals. Merrett has absolutely dominated against the Tigers with 37, 31, 39, 37, 33, 32, 34 and 30 disposals in his eight games against Richmond.
Nic Martin 25+ Disposals: Nic martin has been excellent since Round 9, with 25+ disposal performances in six of his last eight games. Martin was best on ground when the two sides met earlier in the season and has recorded 35, 29 and 26 disposals in his last three games against Richmond.
Peter Wright 2+ Goals: After a quiet campaign in 2025, Peter Wright has been pretty good in trying circumstances this season. Despite limited supply in an injury depleted forward line, Wright has kicked 20 goals in 11 games. Wright has kicked 11 goals in his last six games, with four out of those six games seeing returns of 2+ goals.
Richmond vs Essendon Betting Odds & Match Info
Weather: Cloudy, 12 degrees
Odds: Richmond ($2.85) vs Essendon ($1.42)
Where to Watch Richmond vs Essendon?
Tail our Richmond vs Essendon Tips at Dabble!
