Rugby league fans are given everything they desire in the 2025 State of Origin series with a Game 3 decider. What more could you want? It has been a series whereby both teams have produced interesting performances, with neither looking like the finished product they desire to capture the series. The Maroons have proved many doubters wrong following their poor performance in Game 1; meanwhile, the Blues have been left to wonder ‘what might have been’ had they taken their chances. This sets the stage for an intriguing contest and Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the game and hopefully find you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Check out our full preview and tips for Game 3 of the State of Origin below and if you’re keen to play along with our tips, consider joining Betr!
2025 NRL State of Origin Game 3 Predictions & Tips
Game 2 Recap
The series headed over to Perth for Game 2 and it was an old-fashioned Queensland ambush. The Maroons started well, dominating the yardage and making the Blues pay for their mistakes. This saw them take a 26-6 lead into HT and it was a matter of the Blues regaining momentum in the second half. They managed this to some extent, with the Blues finishing strongly to fall agonisingly short 26-24. There was no question that the Maroons were the better team for the opening 30 minutes, but the Blues let some chances slip from that point onwards. Their goal kicking was also an issue, only converting 2/5. Interestingly, the Maroons only had a 45% share of possession, completed at 66% (Blues 70%) but they managed to do more with the ball (8m per carry vs 7.9m per carry). Both teams were equal is other areas including line breaks (3 each) and missed tackles (QLD 31 vs NSW 33). Given the quality of that fixture was low, both teams are expected to improve in this contest.
Maroons or Blues? Here's our State of Origin Game 3 Tip
The Blues have been named favourites and after performing well in parts in the opening two matches, they are yet to put together a comprehensive 80-minute performance. The Maroons have made some key changes ahead of this game but still appear vulnerable; there is no greater difference between the two sides than the players named in the centres. The Blues will look to exploit this at every possible opportunity. The stronger team is NSW and providing they can establish a strong platform in the middle; there is no limit to what they can achieve. The fact that the Maroons have been so close to their opponents without the Blues being at their best is a concern for the visitors. The Blues only need a small window to gather momentum and their second half against the Maroons in Game 2 was evidence of this. It will be a tight contest early and the intensity should be high, but the longer the game goes, the Blues are expected to pull away and cover the line (and maybe more) to win the series.
Total Points/Margin
The average total points in Game 3 matches since 2011 is 36.6 points. In the first two games of this series, the average total points scored is 37. This makes the total points market of 42.5 enticing.
Margin wise, only 5 Game 3 fixtures since 2011 have been decided by 13+ points. This doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The opening two games of the series indicates that it is highly likely, especially considering the new combinations (and possible weaknesses) in those incoming players. Probably one to stay away from.
Also Consider: Margin – NSW 13+ @ $2.40
Total Points Over 42.5
$1.90
NRL State of Origin Game 3 Best Prop Bets
First Try Scorer/Try Scorer
Outside backs (players 2-5) have a knack of scoring first in Game 3 matches. Since 2011, they have scored 10 times, with centres have scoring 6 times and wingers 4. Valentine Holmes has scored 4 times (3 as a winger and once as a centre). Another interesting statistic to point out is that Queensland has scored first in all but 3 Game 3 matches since 2011. Out of the 14 tries scored this series, only 2 have been by forwards (Capewell & Crichton in Game 2).
Best Bet = Zac Lomax – Lomax has scored 3 times in the series and is a fantastic attacking threat on the wing. He has a great ability in the air to end up with the ball and isn’t afraid to take on the opponents close to the line.
Value = Stephen Crichton – Crichton has been devastating this series for the Blues and will face off against Shibasaki on the edge again. After a strong performance in Game 1, he was quiet (by his standards) in Game 2. His chances are enhanced by the pressure created on inside defenders (Dearden and now Capewell), creating extra room for him to take advantage of.
Also Consider: Stephen Crichton $13
NSW First Try: Zac Lomax
$7.50
Best Bet = Valentine Holmes – Holmes’ stats speak for themselves (see above). He has shifted back to the wing also and has a great ability to finish attacking movements from anywhere on the field.
Value = Jeremiah Nanai – Sure, forwards haven’t scored much this series, but Nanai has been given several opportunities. He is the type of player that can ‘pop up’ in the right place at the right time. It wouldn’t surprise if he were to do the same again off a good line or chasing a kick.
Also Consider: Jeremiah Nanai $26
QLD First Try: Valentine Holmes
$12
Man of the Match
This is a market which is always advised to stay away from. Since 2011, a player outside of the spine (1, 6 7 & 9) has only won this award twice, with one of those (Corey Parker – 2014) coming in a dead rubber. This could be the year to break this trend. Despite Haas winning this award in Game 1, those in the middle have gone underappreciated and a strong platform for victory will have to be established in the middle.
Best Bet = Dylan Edwards – He won this award in Game 3 last year and his contribution to the success of the Blues this year has been overlooked. He is crucial to their success on both sides of the ball and fits nicely into the history of this away going to players in the spine.
Value = Angus Crichton – Crichton has been dominant on his edge all series. Reliable and strong defensively, his attacking ability has been limited. Expect another big game from him and as he will play 80 minutes, he is a great candidate for this accolade.
Also Consider: Angus Crichton $21
NSW Man of the Match: Dylan Edwards
$9.00
Best Bet = Cameron Munster – it has been a tough week for the Maroons playmaker and a breakout match on the biggest stage, is exactly what is expected from this quality player. He is the captain of this team for a reason and following on a strong performance in Game 2 (named MOM), he will again want to lead his team to victory.
Value = Tom Dearden – it is unusual to see a player in the spine at such high odds. Dearden is key to his team’s success, and such is the attention given to other players, his contribution often goes undervalued. It should not be viewed this way at all.
Also Consider: Tom Dearden $23
QLD Man of the Match: Cameron Munster
$9.00
New South Wales vs Queensland Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Odds: New South Wales ($1.37) vs Queensland ($3.10)
Line: New South Wales -8.5
Team Lineups
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Max King 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Stefano Utoikamanu Reserves: 18. Jason Kiraz 19. Lindsay Smith 20. Bradman Best
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tom Dearden 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Trent Loiero Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Jeremiah Nanai Reserves: 18. Reece Walsh 19. J’maine Hopgood 20. Josh Kerr
Where To Watch the State of Origin?
You can watch the Blues vs Maroons live and free on Channel 9, while full replays will be shown on Kayo Sports!
Tail our NRL State of Origin Tips at Betr!
