Round 6 concludes with a bottom of the ladder clash between North Melbourne and Hawthorn. The Roos and the Hawks are the only teams without a win in season 2024, so there will be plenty of desperation on display in this clash.
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2024 AFL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
North Melbourne vs Geelong
Sunday 4:05pm AEST, 21st April, Marvel Stadium
North Melbourne were handed a third consecutive loss in excess of 50 points, after copping a 75 point thumping at the hands of Geelong last week. The Roos trailed for the entirety of the game, as they conceded 100 points for the fifth consecutive game.
Hawthorn produced arguably their most disappointing performance of the season, as they were smashed by 53 points in an uncompetitive display against the Suns. The Hawks were well beaten in all the key areas of the game, recording -96 for disposals, -20 inside 50’s, -10 clearances and -8 contested possessions.
The most alarming stat was that despite having 96 less disposals than the Suns, Hawthorn still lost the tackle count 61-44. Sam Mitchell assured his players would be bringing their mouthguards to training throughout the week, so expect the Hawks to bring a physical brand on Sunday afternoon.
Both sides haven’t named any confirmed outs as of Thursday evening, with the Kangaroos including Cam Zurhaar, Will Phillips and Jackson Archer in their extended squad. Hawthorn have brought Jack Gunston, Jai Serong and Harry Morrison into their extended squad.
The comparison of both teams at either end of the ground make it difficult to find an area that either team will take advantage of in this clash. Hawthorn are the lowest scoring team in the competition averaging just 63 points per game and haven’t scored more than 83 points in a game this season.
At the other end of the ground, North Melbourne are the league’s worst defence, conceding a mammoth 122 points per game this season. The Roos have conceded above 130 points twice in the last three weeks. Whichever side can improve on their deficiency will go a long way to winning this game.
Given what Hawthorn produced in the fortnight leading into last week, it’s easier to have confidence in them, than it is to believe in North Melbourne. The Hawks got within five points of reigning premier Collingwood in Gather Round, as well as being within a goal of Geelong during the third quarter on Easter Monday.
Match Prediction: The Hawks have had the better of this matchup in recent seasons, winning five of their last six games against North Melbourne. If the Hawks can get on top of the Kangaroos in the centre of the ground, they should be able to score easily given how much North Melbourne have struggled to contain scores from inside 50’s.
Geelong converted 51.7% of their inside 50’s to scores against North Melbourne last week, Brisbane converted 40.8% in Round 4, Carlton converted 43.5% in Round 3, Fremantle converted 55.6% in Round 2 and GWS converted 58.3% in Round 1. Hawthorn will generate enough ball inside 50 that the struggling Roos defence won’t be able to contain, and they’ll finally get their first win of the season.
Hawthorn -16.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Harry Sheezel 30+ Disposals: Sheezel is leading disposal getter in the AFL, averaging 34.4 disposals per game in 2024. The young gun has produced six straight 30+ disposal games to the start the season, and recorded 30 disposals in Round 18 when he last played Hawthorn.
Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals: Massimo D’Ambrosio has had a good start to his time at Hawthorn, averaging 20.4 disposals per game. The Kangaroos have struggled to contain opposing half backs, so the former should have plenty of opportunities to rack up the footy.
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goal scorer: Jack Ginnivan has created plenty of headlines, however his form has gone under the radar in his first year at Hawthorn. Ginnivan has kicked six goals this season, and has kicked a goal in five of his six games this season. Ginnivan has kicked two goals in each of his last two games against the Roos.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
