Two games remain in the season, two points separate first and second place, two points separate seventeenth and eighteenth place. The title is on the line, survival in the English Premier League is on the line in a huge weekend of football. Let's break it all down and present our best bets for the key Week 37 fixtures!
EPL 2025-26: Matchday 37 Preview & Betting Tips
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Villa Park, Saturday 16th May, 5:00am AEST
It’s a battle of fourth versus fifth, with both Aston Villa and Liverpool having the opportunity to secure Champions League football with a win on Saturday. Both sides are tied on 59 points, so they could be vulnerable to dropping out of the top five next week if Bournemouth were to win this weekend. Both clubs were held to draws by lower ranked opposition last week with Liverpool held to a 1-1 result against Chelsea, while Aston Villa failed to claim all three points in a 2-2 draw with relegation bound Burnley.
Aston Villa have been bailed out by the Premier League earning an extra Champions position, who have fallen from third to fifth place in what has been an ordinary nine week period. Since February 27, have recorded two wins, two draws and five losses in Premier League matches, with some dreadful losses against sides well below them. Villa have lost to the already relegated Wolverhampton, seventeenth placed Tottenham, eleventh placed Fulham and ninth placed Chelsea in this run.
Another factor going against the home side is their record against Liverpool in Premier League fixtures. Since 2015 Liverpool and Aston Villa have played against each other on 16 occasions in the Premier League, with Liverpool winning 12 times and Villa only winning once, back in 2020. Unai Emery’s side have been a mid table side from an attacking perspective, with their defence over performing, however as has been shown over the last two months, they have no margin for error if their defence isn’t at its best.
Liverpool to Win
$2.20 (1 Unit)
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Vitality Stadium, Wednesday 20th May, 4:30am AEST
The Vitality Stadium plays host to a crucial clash on Wednesday as Manchester City look to keep their title hopes alive, while Bournemouth will be looking to keep their hopes of qualifying for Champions League alive. Manchester City are two points behind Arsenal heading into the final fortnight of the season and simply must win both of their final games. Bournemouth are four points behind fourth placed Liverpool, who play fifth placed Villa this weekend, so there is a golden opportunity for the Cherries to be within one point of a top five place if they win.
City put together dominant performances last weekend and mid week, with 3-0 wins over Brentford and Crystal Palace to be within two points of Arsenal. Pep Guardiola’s side have been in excellent form, currently on a fourteen game unbeaten run and have won five of their last six games. City have scored nine goals across their last three games and the league’s most potent attack will be looking for another big day in the front third.
Bournemouth have been the feel good story of the season, on the cusp of playing in Europe for the first time in club history. However they’ve relied heavily on their attacking game, with their defence ranking 15th in the league having conceded 52 goals. In the Premier League era, Man City have won 16 of their 17 games against Bournemouth and they’ve made a mockery of the Cherries defence. Man City have scored 3+ goals in five of their last six wins over Bournemouth and they’ll put another big performance in to take the title race to the final day of the season.
Chelsea vs Tottenham
Stamford Bridge, Wednesday 20th May, 5:15am AEST
Tottenham will be looking to stay out of the relegation zone heading into the final game of the season when they take on rivals Chelsea. Two wins and a draw from their last three games has seen Spurs in control of their own destiny, sitting two points clear of 18th placed West Ham. If the Hammers fail to beat Newcastle on Monday, a point would be enough for Tottenham to secure survival given their 11 goal advantage on goal difference.
Chelsea’s drop off in form over the last two months has been remarkable, looking almost certain to miss out on European football despite being in the top six for the majority of the season. Chelsea have recorded six losses and a draw across their last seven Premier League games, conceding 3+ goals in four of those seven games. Tottenham have been one of the worst defensive sides in the league this season, conceding 55 goals, the fourth most in the Premier League.
With their spot in their Premier League on the line, Tottenham have lifted in the last few weeks, with two wins and two draws in their last four games. Spurs have a lot more riding on this matchup than what Chelsea do, so they should be a much more desperate side, however the gap in quality between the two sides this season is quite large. Both clubs have played in a lot of draws with Spurs featuring in 11 and Chelsea recording 10 and this match will be another stalemate for the London clubs.
