Four games come our way on Super Saturday this week, but most of them look a little uninspiring with a number of warm favourites in action - but that’s perfect for some AFL fantasy!
First up, the Bombers will be hoping to be competitive against a Lions team that seems to be working through the gears nicely this season. In Perth, the Eagles enter as a rare favourite as they welcome the Tigers who will be hungry for their first taste of a win this season. Life gets tougher for the Kangaroos who have to head down the highway to take on the Cats, while the evening match will see the Blues looking to turn their fortunes around against the Saints at Marvel Stadium.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 8 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 8 Saturday: Where to Attack?
Brisbane stacks will be a popular play today as they take on a struggling Essendon team that do leak huge fantasy points. The Bombers inside mids are the worst in the competition, conceding over 11 points above league average to the opposition mids, and they have dropped a couple of inside mids this week to try a different setup on the ball. They also give up big points to general defenders and wingers. By contrast, Brisbane are extremely stingy across almost all positions, so be wary choosing any Bombers this week.
West Coast and Richmond are usually fantasy targets but the goalposts do shift a little when they come up against each other. Are they good enough to exploit each other’s weaknesses? The Tigers give up the league worst to opposition key forwards at over 11 points above the league average. They also give up big points to inside midfielders. You can target against the Eagles across all positions on the ground, but in particular inside mids and in the ruck. However as already mentioned, Richmond probably don’t have a ruckman capable of exploiting that advantage.
A better spot to target in the ruck might be against the Cats who have lost Mark Blicavs to injury and now come up against an angry Tristan Xerri. There aren’t too many other spots to look at in this match. While the Cats are big favourites, the Roos have been pretty tight in fantasy points conceded this season, especially to opposition defenders where they are among the best in the league in recent times, but perhaps their soft draw has flattered those figures also.
Carlton and St Kilda might be a more exploitable match up with the Blues struggling against opposition forwards and wingers. They have also been giving up points in the ruck but the return of Marc Pittonet may help that situation. The Saints have always given up points to the opposition defenders and designated kickers, and that trend has continued this season.
Game Script: Brisbane stacks, Eagles key forwards, Eagles/Tigers mids, Kangaroos ruck, Blues defenders, Saints forwards/wings
AFL Fantasy Round 8 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Matthew Carroll ($8,090) has put together a couple of nice games in a row, with scores of 83 and 72 in the last fortnight. He draws a great matchup here for defensive outside players against the Saints, so it’s an ideal opportunity to hit value once again and we can correlate him with some other Blues defenders.
Shannon Neale ($8,330) / Sam De Koning ($8,130) are both in play this week as you suspect one (or both) of them are going to have to carry their share of the ruck duties with Mark Blicavs injured. Mitch Edwards ($6,240) has been the number one ruck recently but he’s struggled to get much going with a score of just 20 fantasy points last week. It’s not going to be any easier against the man mountain in Tristan Xerri, so I think the bigger bodied Neale might be asked to shoulder more of the load. Even if he doesn’t, key forwards have a good match up here as big favourites against the Kangaroos.
AFL Fantasy Round 8 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Jy Simpkin ($10,560) / Tom Powell ($9,950) are both good value based on their potential ceilings, and they may get a more favourable role this week. With George Wardlaw ruled out of the Kangaroos side with illness, there’s CBAs up for grabs. Simpkin stepped into that role when Finn O’Sullivan was out, and did quite well, so he may get that option once again. Or the Roos might look to get some form into the legs of Tom Powell who has been down this season, but has done well on the ball in the past.
Oli Florent ($11,370) is one of the Carlton backs who we can target on this slate. Florent has enjoyed the switch to the Blues this season with a solid 81 point average and a consistent floor. This is an ideal match up against the Saints for him to hit a new season high. If entering multiple teams, you can spread your exposure across any of Oli Hollands ($11,150), Zac Williams ($10,990) or Nick Haynes ($10,730) at a similar price point for a similar match up.
AFL Fantasy Round 8 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Hugh McLuggage ($14,130) could be ready to be let off the leash here against the Bombers, and now might be the time to jump on board before the pack follows. In three games back from injury, McLuggage has barely got out of 3rd gear with decent scoring in only 60-70% game time, but this seems as good as ever for him to be unleashed while perhaps managing the loads on some of the others such as Lachie Neale ($16,440) and Will Ashcroft ($16,520). All of the Brisbane mids are in play so you can mix and match as your budget allows, but we just want to land some big tons against the Bombers who leak massive points to opposition midfields.
Nic Newman ($14,800) looks the key premium defender for the Blues to capitalise on the match up against the Saints this week. Of course, Newman missed 12 months of football through injury, so it was hard to expect too much from him at first, but there has been some good signs this season without being spectacular. Newman is averaging 87.8 for the season with one ton, and this is a game where he can certainly fill his boots.
Tristan Xerri ($18,420) looks set to be the leading points winner of the slate, but can you fit him into your side with the massive salary? Xerri returned from suspension with some venom last week with a 145 against the Giants that included 12 tackles. The Cats concede big points in the ruck, and GMHBA is typically a good ground for extra throw-ins and stoppages, so I fully expect Xerri to go large again. However I just don’t think there’s enough good value options on this slate to fit Xerri into my side.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 2nd May
Melbourne - Cloudy, 23 degrees
Perth - Mostly cloudy, 18 degrees
Geelong - Cloudy, 23 degrees
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Essendon ($8.50) vs Brisbane ($1.07)
Line: Brisbane -46.5
Points: 185.5
West Coast ($1.38) vs Richmond ($3.09)
Line: West Coast -18.5
Points: 183.5
Geelong ($1.23) vs North Melbourne ($4.20)
Line: Geelong -28.5
Points: 191.5
Carlton ($2.66) vs St Kilda ($1.48)
Line: St Kilda -13.5
Points: 181.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
