Friday Night in NRL Round 3 delivers a blockbuster as the Melbourne Storm host the Brisbane Broncos in an early season Grand Final replay, bringing betting intrigue and early season pressure. Matches between genuine premiership contenders always attract heavy market interest, and this one is no different with both sides looking to set the tone for the next phase of their season.
Below, we bring you our full preview, best bet, prop bet, and Same Game Multi for the Storm vs Broncos!
Storm vs Broncos Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 3
Storm Look to Avenge Grand Final Loss to Broncos
The memory still lingers from the 2025 NRL Grand Final, where Melbourne fell 26–22 to Brisbane in a gripping decider that ultimately denied the Storm another premiership. That defeat adds an extra layer of motivation heading into this Round 3 showdown, particularly with Melbourne now hosting the reigning premiers.
The Storm responded strongly last week, defeating the Dragons 46–20 at WIN Stadium, but the scoreline did not tell the full story. For much of the match Melbourne looked slightly out of sync, struggling with handling errors and allowing St George Illawarra to stay within striking distance deep into the second half.
What followed was a trademark Storm surge. Melbourne produced five unanswered tries in the final 18 minutes, turning a competitive contest into a comfortable victory. Their fitness, bench impact and ability to capitalise on defensive fatigue proved decisive.
The performance reinforced Melbourne’s reputation for grinding opponents down before striking late. While there were signs of rust, the attacking systems still functioned effectively once momentum shifted, particularly through quick shifts and strong support play around the ruck. If they can start faster this week, Melbourne loom as a dangerous proposition, particularly for a Broncos’ team struggling for confidence.
Broncos Desperate to Avoid 0-3 Start
Brisbane’s premiership defence has begun on shaky ground, with the 2025 premiers slipping to a 0–2 record after a high scoring 40–32 loss to the Eels at home in Round 2. The defeat followed an earlier setback to open the season and has quickly placed pressure on a side expected to contend again this year.
Against Parramatta, the Broncos showed flashes of their attacking quality, generating multiple scoring opportunities through their outside backs and playing with speed when momentum was on their side. However, defensive lapses proved costly, particularly at the end of each half, with the Eels scoring all but one of their tries in two separate 13-minute periods just before the end of each half. The Broncos’ fitness appears to be behind where they ended last season, and without drastic improvement this week, they could be in deep trouble against the Storm.
Brisbane struggled to control field position, conceding repeat sets that eventually wore down their defensive line. Discipline and handling errors also contributed to momentum swings that Parramatta capitalised on.
The concern for coach Michael Maguire is not attacking output, scoring 32 points should be enough to win most games, but defensive cohesion and fitness late in games. The Broncos have conceded heavily across the opening fortnight, an area that must improve if they are to stabilise their season.
With their premiership defence already under pressure, Brisbane enter this matchup desperate to rediscover the defensive resolve that defined their title winning campaign.
Storm vs Broncos Recent History
The most recent regular season meetings between these sides were split last year. Brisbane defeated Melbourne 30–14 at home in Round 27 as 4.5-point underdogs, while the Storm claimed a 22–2 victory in Round 23 at home as 5.5-point favourites. The Storm have won the past 9 clashes at AAMI Park.
Recent clashes have produced intense, high-quality contests:
2025 Grand Final: Broncos def Storm 26–22
2025 Round 27: Broncos def Storm 30–14
2025 Round 23: Storm def Broncos 22–2
2024 Round 27: Storm def Broncos 50–12
2024 Round 5: Storm def Broncos 34–32
Storm Surge to Continue in Round 3
From a betting perspective, Melbourne profile as stronger favourites than the current market line suggests. Playing at home, with improved cohesion expected after last week’s late surge, the Storm should be capable of controlling territory and dictating tempo.
Brisbane’s early defensive struggles are a major concern, particularly against a Storm side that thrives on sustained pressure and capitalising on fatigue. Team news also plays a role, with Melbourne edge Shawn Blore ruled out, however he has been missing the last two weeks, so it won’t affect the Storm here. The bigger news is the Broncos ruling out halfback and captain Adam Reynolds with a rib injury. Ben Hunt moves to halfback, with young hooker Blake Mozer likely to come onto the bench.
On raw ratings, Melbourne sit closer to a 10-point favourite by my numbers, suggesting some value remains with the home side at current numbers. However, given the Broncos’ attacking potential and desperation to avoid a third straight defeat, this shapes more as a controlled Storm performance rather than a blowout.
Game style and two teams looking to not take a backward step defensively also point toward a lean to the under on the 55.5 total, particularly if Melbourne focus on ruck control and field position to strangle Brisbane’s attacking rhythm.
Expect the Storm to build pressure gradually before asserting authority in the second half.
Storm -8.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Storm vs Broncos Player Prop Bet
We Saw the Panthers peppering the right edge of the Broncos two weeks ago, and the price of Warbrick anytime try scorer so short, we will go with his opposite winger this week.
Nick Meaney (1+ try)
$2.00 (1 Units)
Storm vs Broncos Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Storm (-8.5) – See best bet.
Leg 2: N Meaney (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: Under 55.5 total points – Fair total for this matchup is under 50 on my numbers, and with two big teams on Friday Night Football, I’ll back the defence of these teams to keep this somewhat close.
Same Game Multi Odds: $6.21 at Neds
Storm vs Broncos Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday, 20th March
Location: AAMI Park - Melbourne
Time: 8:00pm AEDT
Weather: Fine, 19 degrees
Odds: Storm ($1.36) vs Broncos ($3.10)
Line: Storm (-8.5)
Points: 54.5
Where to Watch Storm vs Broncos
Watch the Storm vs Broncos live on Channel 9 and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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