Saturday football kicks off in Western Sydney as the Giants take on the Hawks in a rematch of the 2025 Elimination Final. Both teams have finals aspirations in 2026, and we’re set for a cracking contest to kick off their campaigns!
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Giants vs Hawks below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
GWS vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Opening Round
A Treacherous Summer
Coming into 2026 the Giants should be contending for a premiership, however a horror run of injuries on the eve of the season has caused chaos for GWS. Star midfielder Tom Green and small forward Darcy Jones will miss the season with an ACL injury, while Sam Taylor (hamstring), Toby Bedford (hamstring), Brent Daniels (hamstring), Josh Kelly (hip) won’t feature in the early part of the season. Aaron Cadman (pelvis) and Leek Aleer are set to miss Opening Round with a groin injury, while Finn Callaghan (hip) is in doubt as well. The Giants depth is going to be seriously tested in the early parts of the season, and they’ll need to tread water before they regain more troops.
Can The Hawks Take The Next Step?
Hawthorn are on a great trajectory, making a Semi Final in 2024 and then a Preliminary Final in 2025, so can they go one step further again in 2026? Progress isn’t always linear and things will only get harder with increased expectations, however things are looking great for the Hawks. Their midfield is probably an A-Grader short of being elite, however their forward line and backline wants for nothing. Overall Hawthorn have gotten through pre-season with a pretty good bill of health. Will Day’s frustrating injury run continues but the Hawks have managed to compete without him over the last two seasons, while Cam Mackenzie will miss Opening Round with concussion. Outside of those two, the Hawks have their entirety of their top end talent to pick from and should feature at the pointy end of the table in 2026.
Recent Head to Head History
There’s a few different layers of trends in the head to head records between GWS and Hawthorn. Hawthorn have won three of the last four games between the two sides, however two of those wins came in Launceston. GWS have won five of their six games against Hawthorn at Engie Stadium, with their only loss being the Elimination Final from last season. It’s clear home ground advantage is a big factor between these two teams.
Giants or Hawks? Here’s our GWS vs Hawthorn Tip
If the Giants were at full strength, they would be hard to pick against at home, however given that injuries to key players, it’s going to be an uphill battle for GWS. No Sam Taylor and Leek Aleer is a massive concern given the quality of tall forwards Hawthorn have, with SSP signing Jayden Laverde set to be the lead key defender for the Giants - a massive issue.
If the Hawks can bring their pressure game which they were so good at last season, it will go a long way to winning. Hawthorn were ranked first for pressure acts, fifth for tackles, fifth for tackles inside 50 and fifth for tackles inside 50. Hawthorn’s ground ball game will be too strong for the Giants and the scoring power up forward will put the game to bed against an undermanned GWS defence. 15 of Hawthorn’s 17 wins last season came by margins above 14 points, and they’ll have the power to cover the line in this game.
Hawthorn -13.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
GWS vs Hawthorn Prop Bet
GWS will have to scramble for matchups against Hawthorn’s three tall forwards, meaning there should be some great looks for the Hawks small forwards on Saturday afternoon. Ginnivan was electric in the Elimination Final against GWS, kicking 3 goals and he kicked 2+ goals ten times in season 2025.
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals
$2.65
GWS vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals: Oliver was a brilliant acquisition for the Giants given how little it cost them, but the former Demon has become even more important now that Tom Green has gone down with injury. Oliver showed great signs in the pre-season and he recorded 28 disposals in his last game against the Hawks at the end of last season.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Newcombe was unbelievable in the finals series last year, headlined by a 32 disposal performance in the Elimination Final against GWS. Newcombe’s last six games against the Giants has seen him record 32, 21, 30, 18, 28, and 31 disposals.
Jack Gunston 3+ Goals: No Sam Taylor, No Leek Aleer, Jack Gunston should be licking his lips heading into Saturday afternoon’s clash. Gunston is coming off a career best year where he kicked 73 goals, kicking 3+ goals in eight of his last nine games, including 3 goals in his last outing against GWS.
SGM Odds: $4.33 at Dabble
GWS vs Hawthorn Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 7th March
Time: 4:15pm AEDT
Location: Engie Stadium, Sydney
Odds: GWS $2.70 vs Hawthorn $1.46
Line: Hawthorn -13.5
Points: 170.5
Where to Watch GWS vs Hawthorn?
You can watch GWS vs Hawthorn on Kayo Sports.
Tail our GWS vs Hawthorn Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
