It’s Lex Piper Stakes Day at Ascot as things start to ramp up ahead of the autumn carnival. Weather is expected to be partly cloudy with a top of 26 degrees. The track should be rated a Good 4 with the rail out 3m throughout. The first race kicks off at 11.53pm WST and Shannon Buckley gives us his best bets with odds thanks to Betr!
Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, February 28th 2026
Race 3: Mrs Macs Handicap 1000m - 4:04pm (AEDT)
(3) Snow God – he’s a promising type from the Harrison stable who resumes after a 168 day spell. He spun around in a trial over 950m almost three weeks ago that was a sharp piece of work (he led them up and gave a good kick to win / looked like he still had something under the hood). He was well supported in each of his runs last preparation which yielded a win and three seconds from five starts, so he’s proven to be genuine. I think they’ll put him up on speed from a favourable draw, he gets the services of Willy Pike who pairs with him over Cannykev, and he goes well fresh. I expect him to be too good for this lot
(5) Cannykev – he’s the best roughie in the race. He was a good winner two back beating home Who’s Bent (who subsequently went on to win) before absolutely rattling home last start to just miss Haida Gwaii who’s firm in the market later today. If they overdo it in front, he can swamp them.
(6) Justabittapress – maps to get the right run from gate 1, gets the booking of C. Parnham who’s in great form, and will be hitting peak fitness fourth up. Should run well.
(3) Snow God Win
$2.00 (5 Units)
Race 6: Robert Harvey Memorial Hcp 1000m - 5:59pm (AEDT)
(5) Santanova – she’s a mare in great form and there’s no reason she can’t make it three in a line here. She was very good behind Amaroo Star three back over this track/trip when she was snagged back to last from the widest gate before running up behind them and hitting a dead end approaching the final 50m (Amaroo Star had the run of the race / had race shape against / was good). She went around this track/trip two back where she settled midfield from gate 8 behind a much faster tempo (they went 3.8L above average to the 600m mark) before getting to the outside and sprinting straight past them (fastest 4-200m and L200m splits of the meeting / strong form race with 4 subsequent winners including Twisted Steel). She stayed at this track/trip last start and settled in the one by one behind an even tempo before getting to the outside and knuckling down late to get the money (zipped home 8.8L above average for the final 600m / second fastest 4-200m and L200m splits of the race / Rolling Ruler since won). There looks to be strong speed on paper with several runners that like to lead, so I think they’ll look to slot in midfield or worse and be saved for last crack at them. She’s 3 from 4 over this track/trip, she goes best on dry ground, she meets Amaroo Star 2kgs better at the weights, and I note C. Parnham has stuck with her over Haida Gwaii. Happy her way
(4) Amaroo Star – the obvious danger. He’s won three in a row over this track/trip, he’s never missed the top three on dry ground, Willy Pike is unbeaten on top of him, and he should also enjoy the strong tempo up front. Will likely have a head start on Santanova – can he hold her off?
(2) Sinful Living – gets a senior rider back up today, should lob handy to the speed from gate 2, has form around Haida Gwaii and Amaroo Star, and she’ll enjoy a stronger tempo too.
(5) Santanova Win
$4.40 (1.5 Units)
Race 8: Lex Piper Stakes 1600m - 7:10pm (AEDT)
(3) Dominatus – it was an excellent return over 1500m in the Challenge Stakes where he jumped on terms with them before getting shuffled back to eighth in transit and then worked to the outside and hit the line hard to just miss Playin’it Sweet in a photo (key form race which ties in with Aberdeen Flyer, Linchpin, and Naughty Lord / fastest 4-200m and L200m spits of the race / fifth fastest L200m split of the meeting). Before that, he went around in a trial over 1000m that was a very tidy piece of work (coursed deep throughout, yet he quickened nicely to win by 1.2L going away from them). If we look back to the end of last prep he won over this track/trip when settling behind a very slow tempo and then fighting back to get the better of Miss Veuve. I think he maps perfectly from barrier 2, he’ll take good improvement second up, he wants every bit of 1600m, and Willy Pike sticks with him. Great chance
(7) Naughty Lord – the value danger who’s not had much luck this preparation. The stable clearly have a good opinion of him racing in Listed grade as a maiden and I think he’ll eat the extra 100m here. He just needs to overcome the wide draw and will likely need a good tempo in front.
(2) The Crimson Pirate – he was a very good winner first up, albeit it wasn’t backed up on the clock. He has a good affinity with Ascot, he goes best on dry ground, and he’ll also appreciate the extra distance. Has upside.
(3) Dominatus Win
$2.50 (3 Units)
