What a way to kick off Sunday afternoon football, with a rematch of the cracking Round 11 clash between the Melbourne Storm and the Cronulla Sharks. The Storm will be looking for revenge, after the Sharks got the better of the Premiership favourites, but the Sharks won’t be an easy out, despite their less than stellar form over the past month and a half since their win over the Storm.
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Storm vs Sharks Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 17
Storm Look to Finish Season Strong, Starting Here
The Storm come into this matchup off the back of a tight 1-point victory over the Rabbitohs last week, and their form continues to fluctuate from week to week, with several uncharacteristic performances from the Premiership heavyweights. They were heavy favourites against the Bunnies, and they got into gear quickly, leading 12-0 after just 7 minutes, and it appeared that the onslaught was on. But the Rabbitohs fought back, not conceding another point until the 52nd minute, by which time the Rabbitohs actually led 14-12. The game went back and forth until the final whistle from there, with regular time ending 24-apiece. In Golden Point, the class of the Storm came through, with Ryan Papenhuyzen slotting a field goal to get the win, 25-24. Grant Anderson was tremendous for the Storm, running for over 200 metres, breaking the line twice, scoring a try and setting up another. They just keep finding these guys out of nowhere.
Can Nicho be the Man for the Sharks?
The Sharks are close to hitting the panic button, as their once top 2 potential finishing spot has turned into them fighting to stay in the top 8. After their poor loss last week to the Broncos, the Sharks are currently outside the 8 in 9th place, however they do have two byes up their sleeve. In their round 16 clash with the Broncos, the Sharks led comfortably 22-6 after 35 minutes, and again 28-12 with close to 55 minutes gone. Then the flood gates opened, as the Broncos ran in four tries in 17 minutes to snatch the win 34-28. Question marks continue to linger around halfback Nicho Hynes, who struggled again to put the game away for his side, despite the big lead. There are whispers that Hynes may be moved to fullback soon, with Head Coach Craig Fitzgibbon desperate to get the most out of his million dollar man.
Storm vs Sharks Recent History
The Sharks and Storm have split their last six games, with the Sharks proving a tough out for the Storm over the last few seasons. As mentioned, the teams met back in round 11 at Shark Park, with the Storm closing 4.5-point road favourites, with a total of 45.5. Despite an early try to Grant Anderson, it was the Sharks who were the better team early, running in three unanswered tries in 19 minutes to lead 18-6. The teams went back and forth over the ensuing 50 minutes of football, with the Sharks always maintaining their slight lead, eventually winning 31-26. For the Sharks, Addin Fonua-Blake was sensational, running for 249 metres and scoring a try, whilst Daniel Atkinson scored two tries after coming on for Sam Stonestreet after 20 minutes. The Sharks will need to be at their absolute best today, as the Storm have shown in the recent past that they can destroy this Sharks team, despite the tight head-to-head record.
There’s a Storm Coming
The Storm opened 8.5-point home favourites this week, with early money pushing this to 9.5. The Storm -9.5’s are juiced right now, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this closed 10.5 at kick-off. If we look at the round 11 close of Storm -4.5, this closing 10.5 would look about right given the Sharks have probably lost a point in their power rating since round 11. I make the Storm 12.5-point favourites and see excellent value in the home side here. The Storm love to turn it on at home, particularly on a Sunday afternoon, and I get the feeling the Sharks could be in for a rude awakening in this game.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 47.5 and has been bet down slightly to 46.5. I really like the over here, and I make a fair total 52.5. There is some rain expected in the Melbourne area tomorrow, so I would imagine that’s why the total has come down, so just keep an eye on the weather before placing a bet on the total here. The Storm have played overs at the third highest percentage (62%) in the NRL this season, and I would not at all be surprised to see this go over the total.
Whilst I do like the Storm to cover the spread, the best bet here will be a Storm victory by 13+. In the Storm’s 9 wins this season, five have been by a margin of 13+. Four of these 13+ wins have been at AAMI Park, with only the Panthers and Rabbitohs managing to not be beaten by that margin in Melbourne. Storm by plenty here.
Storm (13+)
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
Storm vs Sharks Player Prop Bet: Coates at the Double
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Xavier Coates (2+ tries)
The Storm winger has a knack at scoring in bunches, and a particularly good record of doing so against the Sharks. In his past three games against the Sharks, Coates has try totals of 2, 0, and 3. Attacking the weaker right edge of the Sharks, expect Coates to give this a real shake.
Xavier Coates (2+ tries)
$4.70 (1 Unit)
Storm vs Sharks Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Over 48.5 points – See the total write up above, I make a fair here 52.5, so will take the over.
Leg 2: X Coates (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: S Talakai (1+ try) – We were on the big Sharks’ centre last week for a try, and he delivered. Hard to stop playing at centre, and I expect the Sharks to use him when in the redzone.
Storm vs Sharks Better Odds & Match Info
Location: AAMI Park - Melbourne
Weather: Possible showers, 13 degrees
Odds: Storm ($1.35) vs Sharks ($3.25)
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