It’s the traditional NFL Thanksgiving Day triple header! There’s no better time to have a three-day weekend in Australia, with 11 hours of NFL action starting at 4:30am, with an NFC North showdown between the Packers and Lions. Then, in the sandwich spot, the traditional NFC East matchup on Thanksgiving pits the Commanders and Cowboys together in Dallas. To cap things off, a massive NFC West contest between the 49ers and the Seahawks, in a game with massive playoff seeding implications.
Sit back, kick the feet up, and enjoy this feast of football with our NFL betting tips!
NFL 2023-24 Thanksgiving Day Betting Tips
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Ford Field, Friday 24th November, 4:30am (AEDT)
These two NFC North foes last met in week 4 this season, with the Lions trouncing the Packers on Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field. It was 27-3 at halftime, with the result (34-20) being slightly flattering for the Packers. Jared Goff had 210 passing yards, with a touchdown and a pick, with David Montgomery the star for the Lions, rushing for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This game was Lions -7.5 on the lookahead, before opening at the same number. There’s been no movement in this, with the Packers looking likely to receive some bad injury news, with Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander both expected to be ruled out. The Lions closed 2-point favourites at Lambeau Field, so there’s probably been a very slight bump up for the Lions in terms of rating. I make the Lions an 8-point favourite on pure ratings, however there’s a chance at a small letdown after their come-from-behind win over the Bears last weekend.
The total was 44.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening 45.5 after last week’s games. This has been heavily bet up, with the total currently sitting at 47.5. This compares to the close of 45 in their previous matchup, with that total sailing over (54 points scored). I do lean the over here, but I’m just a little worried about the Packers offense. With no Aaron Jones, the Lions could be too strong at the line of scrimmage, making it difficult for the Packers to score. Instead, I’ll go with the Lions to go over their total, with their offense hard to stop.
Detroit Lions (team total) over 27.5
$1.95 (1 unit)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Friday 24th November, 8:30am (AEDT)
These NFC East rivals are yet to square off this season, with their last matchup being in week 18 of last season, with the Commanders winning 26-6. I take nothing from this matchup, given the Cowboys were playing for nothing in week 18, whereas the Commanders were trying to get reps for their rookie quarterback, Sam Howell. In their earlier meeting in week 4, the Cowboys prevailed 25-10 at home, in a game the Cowboys started Cooper Rush at quarterback. So, I’m not going to take much, if anything, from these previous meetings.
The Cowboys were 9.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 11-point favourites after the Commanders were humiliated by the Giants last week. The number still sits at 11, and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the Cowboys took on some more money leading into the game.
I make the Cowboys a 10.5-point favourite, so as usual at this time of the season, the market is pretty tight and there isn’t a great deal of value. The Cowboys are 4-0 against the spread in home games as favourites this season, whilst the Commanders are 5-0 against the spread as road underdogs. Very difficult to find any value in the spread.
As for the total, it went from 45 on the lookahead up to 46.5 at re-open. This has continued to be bet up heavily, with the total now sitting at 48.5. I do like the over, however it’s been bet up to a level where I’m not quite as comfortable getting on the over. I do, however, like the Cowboys team total to go over. The Cowboys have been an absolute truck this season at home, averaging 40 points per game at AT&T Stadium. I expect their offense to be explosive against a poor Commanders secondary, and with their defence’s penchant for scoring points, the Cowboys should comfortably go over their total.
Dallas Cowboys (team total) over 30.5
$2.05 (1 unit)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Friday 24th November, 12:20pm (AEDT)
These teams met three times last year, with the 49ers going 3-0, including winning on Wild Card weekend 41-23. The 49ers won by a combined 89-43, with their smallest margin of victory being 8 points, in a 21-13 victory at Lumen Field in week 15 last season. I take plenty from these results, as both teams are extremely similar, with the same quarterback / head coach combinations as last season.
The number in this game has moved considerably, with the 49ers just 4.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 6.5-point favourites. This has been bet up slowly through the early part of the week, to where the 49ers are now 7-point favourites at most books, with an expensive 6.5 still available at Betfair. I make the 49ers a 7-point favourite, so once again not much value in terms of a pure numbers play.
As for the total, it remained at 43.5 at open, with the number bet down slightly to 43. I actually lean towards the over in this matchup, however with Prime Time unders hitting at a crazy high clip, it scares me off a little. The weather will be cold, but with minimal wind and no rain predicted in the pacific northwest, conditions should be prime for points. But alas, I’m concerned about the lack of points in prime time.
I once again like the favourite’s team total to go over, but I’m going to go for the 49ers to cover. Whilst you can still get 49ers -6.5 at Betfair, given it’s not widely available we will go for the 49ers to cover the full 7. The 49ers seem to be back to their brutal best, and I don’t trust the Seahawks right now, especially with Geno Smith suffering an elbow injury last week and being limited at practice.
San Francisco 49ers (-7)
$1.96 (2 units)